Josh Barro Profile picture
13 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
While 2022 is likely to be tough for Dems, I think there's one area of upside that's being underrated -- this year, Dems are winning the national popular vote by a slim margin and thus barely winning the House. People talk like Dems have maxed out their vote share.
What Dems need to do in 2022 is what they did in 2018: Win the House NPV decisively. Obviously that's hard in a midterm year where you have the WH, but probably easier when you're not running on a big unpopular entitlement change, as ruling parties did in '94/'06/'10/'18.
The last first-term midterm where a president sought re-election while presiding over a divided congress was 2002, and that president's party gained seats. Obviously special circumstances, but the circumstances in 2022 may be pretty special too, with COVID waning & fast growth.
The divided congress under Bush was more productive than you might have expected, and yet one of the winning GOP messages in 2002 was that Democrats were being obstructionist -- blocking the creation of DHS over civil service terms.

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More from @jbarro

10 Nov
I think this is right. A lot of tax provisions in TCJA and CARES that Republicans care about are set to expire soon. This is likely to be a key driver of agreements on economic legislation in a divided government.
And here Kyle has a useful table of what expires when.
The key stuff that will come up in the short term is on business taxation: businesses will start to get less favorable tax treatment for capital investments, and GOP will want to improve that. This is business tax relief about which Dems are relatively comfortable, too.
Read 5 tweets
9 Nov
Some personal news: I am excited to announce that next month, I will rejoin @businessinsider as a columnist focusing on politics, business and the economy. I will also be doing analytical writing on topics like why infrastructure is so expensive in the US.
@businessinsider I first joined BI in 2013. It has been amazing to watch the site's successful growth and evolution under @hblodget and @nichcarlson, through several business cycles in online journalism.
They are making great hires and doing more essential coverage than ever (you probably noticed their string of politics scoops this year, for example) and I'm excited to be rejoining the expanded team.
Read 8 tweets
7 Nov
I kind of think Biden should just declare victory. He’s obviously won. There’s nothing in the constitution that says you have to wait for the Associated Press.
But I have also been fairly unbothered by Trump’s bloviating. People say things.
Anyway, I don’t get the idea that Biden needs to wait for “optics” or “norms.” Three months from now, nobody is going to care that Joe Biden didn’t wait for the AP to say he won the race he won.
Read 4 tweets
6 Nov
Genuinely having trouble deciding if this is true or not. I think it probably is. Of course, Biden also won.
I dunno, you could probably turn UBI and some of his other quirky ideas into powerful attack ad fodder.
On the other hand — if Joe Rogan had spent the election pulling for the Democrat, that probably would have been worth something with young secular men
Read 4 tweets
6 Nov
I see lots of you retweeting that insane thread from @pegobry. I’m disappointed, and you need to get a grip.
Of that looooooong thread, this is the only one that addresses any remotely specific claim of what fraud there might have been. And this is irrelevant! Biden is going to win PA by a clear margin before any late-arriving ballots are counted.
The conspiracy theory doesn’t make any sense. I was at a polling place all Tuesday. You’re gonna do this in front of dozens of people? Or by mail, each ballot has to attach to a registered voter. We saw in NC-9 how hard it is to get away with stealing mail votes on a small scale.
Read 7 tweets
5 Nov
In heavily Hispanic Lawrence, MA, Trump lost 74-25, an improvement from 82-15 last time. Another sign of Trump making inroads in Hispanic communities even as he continues to lose them overall.
Lawrence is 80% Hispanic or Latino
Significant improvement also on the south coast (New Bedford/Fall River) where there is a large Portuguese-American community.
Read 6 tweets

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