So now that we know what happened last Tuesday, the work begins to understand... what happened last Tuesday. Or, more accurately, how it happened. We often rush to draw conclusions from limited and flawed datasets, and these early false narratives can be hard to shake.
The good thing about this election is, with so many votes cast early and by mail, we will have the individual-level vote history in many states far earlier than we normally would. I've been digging into the turnout data in CO, OR, and NV, where the data is largely complete.
First, age. In all 3 states, voters <30 saw their vote share increase over '16 and '18 levels, as did voters over the >65. This is the "boomer-zoomer" coalition the Biden campaign talked about. Meanwhile, voters age 50-64 plummeted in vote share, Trump's strongest group.
Race/ethnicity: similar patterns emerge here. Surges in turnout among white, college educated voters, Latinos, and Asian voters. African-American turnout (not a large population in these 3 states) held steady. White non-college turnout couldn't keep pace.
Party registration: In all 3 states both Democrats and Republicans saw their electorate shares diminish, relative to '16. Meanwhile, unaffiliated voters saw a huge surge in turnout in all 3 states, accounting for a much larger share of the electorate.
All 3 states had huge surges of voters who didn't vote in '16. These voters were overwhelmingly unaffiliated voters (almost half), and tended to be younger.
Keep in mind, these 3 states were functionally all mail which could skew the turnout results relative to other states. But the initial evidence is that Dems outperformed GOPs in turnout, driven by younger voters and voters of color, but Trump benefitted from persuasion efforts.

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More from @tbonier

8 Nov
To the current debate as to whether BLM helped or hurt Dems, the truth is likely both, to varying degrees, but to blame BLM for Dem downballot losses only exposes the need for Democrats to embrace the movement more, not less.
First, the data overwhelmingly is on the side of proving BLM's positive impact for Dems. I shared the data showing a huge surge in Dem and Ind registration in late May and early June, during a time when Dems couldn't organize in person, BLM filled the gap. But that's not all...
The day after the George Floyd demonstrations began in Atlanta, younger voters saw their share of the early vote statewide in Georgia almost double. And we've seen clear evidence that youth turnout surged in the general election as well.
Read 16 tweets
7 Nov
While we're waiting for "the official call", I wanted to share some really impressive stats around AAPI participation in this election, because the numbers are truly remarkable.
First, in presidential battlegrounds, 19% more AAPI voters cast a ballot in the early vote than voted in entirety in the 2016 election. The only other group to see their early vote exceed their 2016 total turnout was Latino voters, albeit by a narrower margin.
Nationally, 5% more AAPI voters cast a ballot than voted in the entirety of the 2016 election.

In every single battleground state, AAPI voters saw a bigger percent increase in votes cast, relative to '16, than any other group.
Read 4 tweets
6 Nov
Good morning! While you were (hopefully) sleeping, Joe Biden took the lead in Georgia, and now has a margin of 1,096 votes over Donald Trump.

There should be a bit under 10k votes remaining to be reported.

Any military ballots received by 5PM today will also be counted.
A follow up note - from what GA has reported, both military and overseas ballots can be received until 5PM today, but it is not the case that those received already have not been counted, for the most part. So the expectation is this does not represent a large number of votes.
We'll see where this ends up, on Wednesday I predicted Biden would end up with a lead of about 5k votes, that seems in play but may be closer to the 3,500-4,000 range.
Read 8 tweets
5 Nov
Since I gave up waiting for results in Georgia about 7 hours ago, they have reported 23,273 additional votes. Biden won 78% of those votes, and now trails by 18,450 votes. In every batch of votes Biden has run slightly ahead of where he needs to be to close the gap.
I don't have a count from the Secretary of State as far as outstanding ballots, but if the count they provided at 1030 PM was correct, there should be about 67k more votes left to count. Biden would need to carry those with at least 64%.
This report says there are only 25k ballots remaining, which would be 42k lower than what the SoS reported last night. Not sure why the discrepancy. If there truly are only 25k left that won't be enough for Biden to pull ahead.
Read 5 tweets
5 Nov
Another 1,800 or so votes counted in GA, of which Biden wins 71%. He's tracking just above where needs to be in the remaining votes to win narrowly.
Now another 6,680 votes counted, Biden wins 79.4% of them. Biden trails by 33k. Needs to win about 67% of remaining votes to pass Trump, depending on the exact number of outstanding ballots. Still trending positive for Biden.
State officials say 24k outstanding ballots remain in Fulton. Those will be very heavily Dem, and likely put the Biden deficit below 15k. They say they should be through counting by... 3 AM (I really have to sleep at some point).
Read 7 tweets
3 Nov
For those of you interested in wildly overreacting to a very narrow dataset on this Election Day, might I recommend Duval County, Florida?

duvalelections.com/Election-Infor…
Duval County has been won by the Republican candidate in each of the past 3 presidential elections, but each time by very narrow margins. In 2016, Republican and Democratic turnout was almost exactly even.
Dems entered Election Day in Duval County with a turnout lead of about 24,000 voters, built largely on their advantage among mail ballots. As of the last update (linked in the first tweet in this thread) that advantage has been cut to about 14,000 votes.
Read 4 tweets

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