Thread by @staff_ex

Like many, I was relieved when I heard @bbclaurak announce that the Cummings had left No. 10. Having slept on it, I am not so sure.

Having worked extensively in the field of disinformation, my sceptical brain is sceptical. Thread for my thoughts, not that you asked...1/n

All this took place at around 1730, in the middle of PM. Dramatic photos were snapped of a man leaving his place of work carrying a box - classic right?

Well there are many ways to leave No. 10, several of which are not watched 24/7 by media. This departure was visible. 2/n

We can only deduce therefore that we were supposed to see this dramatic exit.

The timing of this, (the middle of @BBCPM) ensures that we get to interrupt the show with an exciting tidbit of breaking news - ensuring the eyes and ears of the nation are firmly focussed. 3/n

Life. It’s all about selling a narrative. In any film ever, if you want to convey an employee leaving a workplace for good (and under bad circumstances) you ALWAYS, depict them walking out carrying their possessions in a box. It’s total trope. 4/n

So far so normal - there are multiple explanations right? After all, we should “never ascribe to malice, that which is adequately explained by incompetence.” Thank you Hanlon, words to live by. 5/n.

Certainly. He could have been forced out the front door as an act of humiliation. He could care so little about his reputation that he chose to. He could be a rat fleeing a sinking ship, or this entire episode is just a dead cat to soak-up column-inches from something else. 6/n

However Cummings famously doesn’t do what he’s told, even by the PM, and no sane political pundit would ever pretend that Johnson has the stones so deliberately humiliate Cummings. After all, he knows where so many of the bodies are buried. 7/n

Cummings cares deeply about his reputation. Remember when he and his wife pretended they were being good parents in London (even writing so in the Spectator), and not strapping their toddler into the Covid Carriage and jetting up to Durham? No. he cares deeply about it. 8/n

So is he not a rat fleeing a ship, or jumping before being pushed, as Laura K’s “No. 10 source” suggests? This one is plausible. However Johnson didn’t sack him when he broke the law, evaded council tax, or pushed for herd immunity. Why start now? 9/n

And to flee a ship, when she is so close to reaching the ‘sunlit uplands’ seems deeply uncharacteristic for an architect of Brexit. I shall leave others to speculate on this - and draw you back to the visuals of last night. 10/n

Was this a spectacle to distract us from bad news? There are plenty of ways of throwing a dead-cat on the table (and we’ve seen plenty of them!) without having to sacrifice your Queen. So no, this is not the intent. 11/n

The visuals were meant to tell a story, and to separate, in the minds of anyone watching (us!), the machine of government from the actions of Cummings. It is a play that allows both Govt and Cummings more autonomy to achieve their ends. 12/n

This is a flanking manoeuvre. There has been no change to the Ends, and the government is out of Ways, and so has found some new Means to help meet their objectives and bring about a desired outcome. 13/n

What comes next now that they have placed a new piece on the board - one not bound by rules? A new campaign (Cummings’s forte) to convince us No-Deal is great? Perhaps galvanising the useful idiot @Nigel_Farage? Or perhaps new ways to take down the ever more popular Starmar? 14/n

Whatever happens, it is imperative that the Government to have us believe there has been a irrevocable split.

Like any military man, I am pathologically unable to finish a lecture without a quote from a long-dead General, so here’s some Sun Tzu. Thanks for reading. 15/15.

Life. It’s all about selling a narrative. In any film ever, if you want to convey an employee leaving a workplace for good (and under bad circumstances) you ALWAYS, depict them walking out carrying their possessions in a box. It’s complete trope. 4/n

So far so normal - there are multiple explanations right? After all, we should “never ascribe to malice, that which is adequately explained by incompetence.” Thank you Hanlon, words to live by. 5/n.

Certainly. He could have been forced out the front door as an act of humiliation. He could care so little about his reputation that he chose to. He could be a rat fleeing a sinking ship, or this entire episode is just a dead cat to soak-up column-inches from something else. 6/n

However Cummings famously doesn’t do what he’s told, even by the PM, and no sane political pundit would ever pretend that Johnson has the stones so deliberately humiliate Cummings. After all, he knows where so many of the bodies are buried. 7/n

Cummings cares deeply about his reputation. Remember when he and his wife pretended they were being good parents in London (even writing so in the Spectator), and not strapping their toddler into the Covid Carriage and jetting up to Durham? No. he cares deeply about it. 8/n

So is he not a rat fleeing a ship, or jumping before being pushed, as Laura K’s “No. 10 source” suggests? This one is plausible. However Johnson didn’t sack him when he broke the law, evaded council tax, or pushed for herd immunity. Why start now? 9/n

And to flee a ship, when she is so close to reaching the ‘sunlit uplands’ seems deeply uncharacteristic for an architect of Brexit. I shall leave others to speculate on this - and draw you back to the visuals of last night. 10/n

Was this a spectacle to distract us from bad news? There are plenty of ways of throwing a dead-cat on the table (and we’ve seen plenty of them!) without having to sacrifice your Queen. So no, this is not the intent. 11/n

The visuals were meant to tell a story, and to separate, in the minds of anyone watching (us!), the machine of government from the actions of Cummings. It is a play that allows both Govt and Cummings more autonomy to achieve their ends. 12/n

What comes next now that they have placed a new piece on the board - one not bound by rules? A new campaign (Cummings’s forte) to convince us No-Deal is great? Perhaps galvanising the useful idiot @Nigel_Farage? Or perhaps new ways to take down the ever more popular Starmar? 14/n

Does this man have stones enough to fire Cummings?

Whatever happens, it is imperative for the Government that we believe there has been a irrevocable split.

Like any military man, I am pathologically unable to finish a lecture without a quote from a long-dead General, so here’s some Sun Tzu. Thanks for reading. 15/15.

This is a cognitive flanking manoeuvre. There is no change to the Ends, and the government is out of Ways, and so has found some new Means to help meet their objectives and bring about a desired outcome. 13/n

Sorry, 13/n got missed out somehow. Here it is!

This is a cognitive flanking manoeuvre. There is no change to the Ends, and the government is out of Ways, and so has found some new Means to help meet their objectives and bring about a desired outcome. 13/n