🧵THREAD🧵
The latest from the Party of Science™ is that "powerful memes" are why the Democrats lost ground among Hispanics.
I've had reporters at major outlets ask me about this conspiracy theory, so it's clearly gaining some traction.
It's a weak excuse. Here's why...
The latest from the Party of Science™ is that "powerful memes" are why the Democrats lost ground among Hispanics.
I've had reporters at major outlets ask me about this conspiracy theory, so it's clearly gaining some traction.
It's a weak excuse. Here's why...
https://twitter.com/theblaze/status/1327115728693194753
A meme is basically an ad.
The best research on the impact of advertising on elections comes from Kellogg.
In major races where candidates enjoy similar name recognition, you need to significantly outspend your opponent just to move the vote by 0.5%.
kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/spenku…
The best research on the impact of advertising on elections comes from Kellogg.
In major races where candidates enjoy similar name recognition, you need to significantly outspend your opponent just to move the vote by 0.5%.
kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/spenku…
Mind you: The Kellogg researchers studied the impact of TV ads, which usually last 30 seconds, involve compelling visuals, present arguments that have been tested, and are well-produced.
A meme is none of this, but let's continue...
A meme is none of this, but let's continue...
Biden outspent us 2:1 on TV and by much more on radio.
In the last 3 months, they outspent us by **$275 MILLION.**
In some of the areas where Trump saw his biggest gains with Latinos — S. Texas and Philly — we ran ZERO Spanish ads.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
In the last 3 months, they outspent us by **$275 MILLION.**
In some of the areas where Trump saw his biggest gains with Latinos — S. Texas and Philly — we ran ZERO Spanish ads.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
That's without getting into Biden's earned media advantages on networks (like Univision), which act as stenographers for the DNC.
The number of memes required to offset those kinds of advantages is astronomical.
Realistically, it's not even possible.
The number of memes required to offset those kinds of advantages is astronomical.
Realistically, it's not even possible.
Latinos were about 13% of the 2020 electorate. Let's go with the latter and say 20 million Latinos voted in 2020.
According to the AP Votecast, Trump ended up with 35% of the Hispanic vote. That's a 7-point gain from 2016, or equivalent to 1.4 million voters.
According to the AP Votecast, Trump ended up with 35% of the Hispanic vote. That's a 7-point gain from 2016, or equivalent to 1.4 million voters.
The old Rule of 7 adage suggests an ad doesn't register unless it's seen 7 x's.
So that's 9.8M meme views, worth $98,000 @ $10 CPM.
The notion that $98,000 can move 1.4M voters—in a POTUS election where you're outspent 2:1—is laughable to anyone vaguely familiar w/ advertising.
So that's 9.8M meme views, worth $98,000 @ $10 CPM.
The notion that $98,000 can move 1.4M voters—in a POTUS election where you're outspent 2:1—is laughable to anyone vaguely familiar w/ advertising.
I mean, $98k can't even buy you a week of TV ads in Miami.
And that's in the absence of all sorts of context: Effectiveness of the message, whether the memes reach eligible persuadable voters, and all of Biden's counterveiling efforts and advantages (i.e. MILLIONS of $ in ads).
And that's in the absence of all sorts of context: Effectiveness of the message, whether the memes reach eligible persuadable voters, and all of Biden's counterveiling efforts and advantages (i.e. MILLIONS of $ in ads).
So with all due respect to my reporter friends, "memes" and "WhatsApp messages" shouldn't appear in your stories on the reasons why President Trump gained ground with Latinos.
There is ZERO evidence this impacted the election.
It's simply a pathetic excuse by the Democrats.
There is ZERO evidence this impacted the election.
It's simply a pathetic excuse by the Democrats.
11 to 13%*
By the way, it’s not hard to imagine Beto saying:
“Like, some super gnarly memes totally duped the Latinxs brah!”
(In @BenShapiro’s impression 😂)
“Like, some super gnarly memes totally duped the Latinxs brah!”
(In @BenShapiro’s impression 😂)
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