Agreed. I've been arguing since the spring that the Covid slump is more like the 79-82 slump, brought on by high interest rates, than 2007-9, brought on (to oversimplify) by an overhang of household debt 1/ cnn.com/2020/11/15/pol…
Once the pandemic abates, which a vaccine will probably achieve, we will be well poised for a rapid, V-shaped recovery. There's a pretty good chance that Biden will preside over a "morning in America" economy 2/
This won't mean that things are OK. Investment demand will still be weak unless we ramp up public investment. Climate change is still looming over everything. But Biden's second year in office may look far better than most people imagine 3/
And yes, Dems should run on it — it will be proof that R claims that you need to be harsh on the poor and destroy the environment were false 4/
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Gavyn Davies points out that the failure of many nations to deal effectively with the coronavirus bodes ill for our ability to prevent climate catastrophe — but he understates the case 1/ ft.com/content/794eda…
Many people, myself included, have argued that climate is a peculiarly hard issue to deal with, because the consequences of bad behavior, while immense, are diffuse and delayed 2/
For example, failing to properly cap a disused gas well contributes to the destructiveness of tropical storms a decade later and half the world away. Hard to get people to focus on that unless they believe in science 3/
Some thoughts about the vaccine, and it *doesn't* imply.
Pfizer says it might be available for widespread distribution by 3rd quarter. That's great. But it's also 8 months away 1/
Meanwhile, new cases have grown 3% *per day* over the past month. If they continued growing at that pace for 8 months, they'd be up by a factor of 1000.
Obv that won't happen — we'd all be infected long before. But the point is that the vaccine won't control the current surge 2/
For now we need mitigation measures to avoid mass casualties — and economic relief to get people through a very dark pandemic winter 3/
Like so much of what has happened under Trump, the efforts to steal the election are both comical and sinister. Mobs demanding that they stop the count in MI, where *Biden is ahead* (why hasn't this race been called). But ... 1/
Attempts to stop the count in PA, where a huge number of legally cast ballots haven't yet been counted because *Republicans prevented an early count*.
Biden has, in fact, almost certainly won. But Trump could still steal this 2/
If he does, America as we know it is over. Are they really willing to go that far? 3/
The more I look at this election, the less I imagine I understand. Florida was a surprise Trump triumph — and also voted to increase the minimum wage to $15 1/
CA is very liberal — and voted to let Uber and Lyft keep treating their employees as independent contractors, with no benefits 2/
According to Fox exits, majorities favor a government health-care plan and a larger role for government in general 3/
So, what we know: Trump probably won't succeed in stealing this election, but he tried and is continuing to try. His partisan postmaster deliberately disrupted mail-in voting; now he's trying to stop the count of legal votes 1/
And the only reason those votes haven't yet been counted is that R legislators blocked early counting of votes that were mostly cast well before Election Day 2/
So we're in the middle of an attempted coup against democracy, which may not succeed in stopping Biden but may have played some role in control of the Senate. 3/
What a terrible election. As far as I can tell from the vote analysts, Biden is highly likely to pull this out — the outstanding votes in WI/MI/PA and, for different reasons, GA are likely to be very Democratic, he's probably won AZ and NV. But then what? 1/
The good news is that if Biden has in fact won, we've avoided an immediate collapse into authoritarianism. Yes, it was and is that dire. But will Biden be able to govern? 2/
He'll probably face a Republican Senate, which also means a rigged Supreme Court; and everything we know says that they'll be ruthless about sabotaging everything he does 3/