Fifteen Asia-Pacific economies formed the world's largest free trade bloc on Sunday, a China-backed deal that excludes the United States, which had left a rival Asia-Pacific grouping under President Donald Trump. cnbc.com/2020/11/15/asi…
When Obama spoke of having the US, rather than China, “write the rules of the road” on trade, this is the alternative trade pact (then still in negotiations) that he specifically warned about. washingtonpost.com/opinions/presi…
Pacific trade pact that Obama admin negotiated & that Trump then pulled us out of, TPP, was put into place without us, renamed CPTPP. To my knowledge Biden still hasn't said whether he would rejoin the deal. Here's what he told The Post during the primary: washingtonpost.com/graphics/polit…
Biden had publicly supported TPP when he was VP; but important left-wing constituencies (e.g. unions) and pols (Sherrod Brown, etc.) opposed it. npr.org/2015/06/16/414…
Since then, however, many of these same unions & pols came supported Trump-negotiated NAFTA 2.0 deal (USMCA). Some of USCMA's major changes — relating to labor standards, environmental protections and e-commerce — were basically cribbed from TPP washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump…
So, unclear what any effort to rejoin (CP)TPP today would look like -- & what pre-conditions left-wing constituencies might demand. Or whether RCEP adds pressure. Reuters on RCEP: "no details on which products & which countries would see immediate reduction in tariffs"

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More from @crampell

13 Nov
USCIS has released a new version of the naturalization civics test. There are 128 questions total, of which 20 will be asked. Candidates must answer 12 of these 20 correctly. uscis.gov/citizenship-re…
interesting to see what questions got added. this seems to be a new one Image
Here is a test question whose "correct" answer changed from past test (1st image) to new one (2nd image). And another similar q added about House (3rd).
Perhaps thematically related to Trump administration's ongoing efforts to change who the census should count for apportionment ImageImageImage
Read 31 tweets
28 Oct
Stock market slide muddles Trump’s economic message days before 2020 election washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020…
In a recent poll asking voters to name Trump's "major accomplishments," top response had been "boosting the stock market" today.yougov.com/topics/politic… Image
"Boosting the stock market" as your greatest presidential achievement would be lackluster enough. U.S. stocks are mostly owned by rich people and foreigners, as @stevertax has pointed out.
But then to lose even *that* meager bragging right...
taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/who-own…
Read 4 tweets
27 Oct
No, Biden isn’t going to unilaterally kill fossil fuels. Renewables/battery tech have gotten so cheap, so fast, that they’ll eventually replace fossil fuels *no matter what* the next president does. Only question is how quickly this transition happens washingtonpost.com/opinions/biden…
Biden's statement about transitioning away from oil only seems radical if you ignore what the industry itself is saying. E.g. the usually bullish OPEC recently said developed nations are past peak oil. washingtonpost.com/opinions/biden…
International Energy Agency’s new World Energy Outlook found that solar PV is “consistently cheaper than new coal- or gas-fired power plants in most countries, and solar projects now offer some of the lowest cost electricity ever seen.” washingtonpost.com/opinions/biden…
Read 10 tweets
25 Oct
Earlier this year I wrote about visa applications getting rejected for having inapplicable blanks on them. Thanks to a newly resolved FOIA suit, we now have a better sense of the scale of this policy and its consequences.
They're enormous. (thread)
This summer, lawyers from @UrbanJusticeDVP & @ClearyGottlieb filed a FOIA suit to get info about how the "no blanks" was being applied to just one category of visa, the U-visa. U-visas are given to victims of serious crimes who assist law enforcement to catch/prosecute criminals
No-blanks policy went into place for U applications on Dec 30, w/ no advanced warning. In first few weeks, *98%* of these applications were rejected because of new policy -- applicant without middlename hadn't included middlename, no current address offered for dead parents, etc.
Read 20 tweets
23 Oct
So...I just scraped new State Dept data on student visas (F-1's), and it looks like student visa issuance fell by ~70% from FY2019 to FY2020.

This is an astounding idiotic own-goal for America, given that education is one of our most successful exports.
What happened? First, covid closed consulates in the spring, and various travel bans then prevented issuance of visas initially for students in some countries even when consulates reopened. Some of that got sorted out eventually. But then...
...Trump admin wouldn't grant visas to new internat'l students if classes were online, as is the case for many schools during covid. (Initially ICE said even *returning* foreign students wouldn't be allowed to study here if classes are online, then changed to new students only)
Read 15 tweets
21 Oct
Letter opposing Donald Trump's re-election signed by 670 economists, including seven Nobel laureates:
George Akerlof (2001)
Roger Myerson (2007)
Peter Diamond (2010)
Christopher Sims (2011)
Alvin Roth (2012)
Oliver Hart (2016)
Paul Milgrom (2020)
sites.google.com/site/econagain…
Interestingly, a similar letter in 2016 was signed by 794 economists
sites.google.com/site/economist…
To be fair, looks like the 2016 letter was initially released with "only" 370 names, and then grew as time went on and the letter circulated more broadly. Same might happen again. washingtonpost.com/news/rampage/w…
Read 6 tweets

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