Thread by @Scs_Connect

LIVE THREAD! The 12th South China Sea Conference is about to start. Live tweets will be updated here in this thread! #scsc12

Vietnam has always been making every effort in transforming the #SouthChinaSea into a sea of peace, stability and prosperity... based on international law and principles of international relations as shown in the ASEAN Indo-Pacific Outlook, says H. E. Bui Thanh Son, MOFA Vietnam.

H. E. Bui Thanh Son: Despite many setbacks caused by Covid-19, ASEAN has been fostering multidimensional maritime cooperation with the international community. #SCSC12

H. E. Bui Thanh Son: The unilateral interpretation of international law, which is not in line with the norms and interests of the international community, has threatened the significance, integrity and universality of UNCLOS 1982. #SCSC12

H. E. Bui Thanh Son makes 5 proposals to overcome challenges in the SCS. 1) facilitate an environment conducive for cooperation & strategic trust. #SCSC12

There are numerous confidence building measures, but the most important ones are to adopt transparent policies, to abide by international law and to act responsibly for the mutual benefits of the international community.

2) actively prevent unplanned encounters at sea; 3) work on economic recovery and mutual development; 4) focus on environmental protection, marine scientific research and sustainable development

5) stay committed to a peaceful settlement to overlapping SCS claims... parties concerned should support ASEAN centrality & ASEAN Indo-Pacific Outlook.

Reporters snapping the 1st family photo with distinguished guests. 20 more minutes until Session 1. #SCSC12

Session 1: The South China Sea in time of turbulences. Greg Poling from CSIS: 2021 will witness higher base level of tension in SCS. Covid can't explain but has exacerbated the situation. #SCSC12

Euan Graham from IISS: COVID will affect how Southeast Asia approach security & assess ties with China. China in 2020 kept low level harassments, but not sure if due to tactical restrain or successful international deterrence.

Euan Graham: Australia has leaned forward from 2020 security setting, legally rejected China's excessive claims - this should be the locus going forward.

Amb. Bilahary Kausikan, Singapore: To China, SCS is tied to the narrative of century of humiliation and China's Dream, which legitimizes CCP ruling. Covid therefore doesn't affect China's SCS much.

Philips Vermonte, CSIS Indonesia: Indonesia pays great attention to the SCS, especially maritime boundary. This is stressed with the note verbales in 2010 & 2020.

Philips Vermonte: Indonesia pursues 2 policies regarding SCS. 1) improve maritime capacity, with new standalone paramilitary unit, w. cooperation from BAKAMLA & Navy.

Philips Vermonte: Indonesia doesn't need to entertain China, committed to a holistic & visible COC with ASEAN.

Prof Anne-Marie Brady from University of Canterbury: Xi has revived Maoist ideas to control China's population & deal w. foreign forces. Beijing staging wars on all fronts (weapons & words) shows the thinking that China is in a position of strength.

Greg: not much change in expected in Biden's SCS policy. An effective U.S. response: combine Obama's engagement & Trump's willingness to irritate China. #SCSC12

Amb. Kausikan: the US is the only external factor that can modify China's behavior. ASEAN, even united, can't do much due to limited hard power (strong words is the best possible consensus). We should be realistic when it comes to ASEAN power.

Graham: COC shouldn’t be a template for China to exclude other countries. Australia feel increasing signals from ASEAN, especially SCS claimants, and should respond to that. SCS solution shouldn't be a binary btw US & China or ASEAN & China.

Amb. Kausikan: COC is a process to manage temperature, shouldn't be viewed with illusion or a political constrain for external countries or for ASEAN to develop ties with others. COC won't be legally binding. #SCSC12

Greg: Quad will remain a partial talk shop, a useful diplomatic channel. Operationally, Quad members' bi & tri arrangements are more useful in SCS. Quad has capacity building value but it has to be carefully framed. #SCSC12

Session 2-ASEAN's role. Dr Dinoa Djalal's wish list for SCS post 2025: 1) a substantive COC; 2) at least 1 cooperation among claimants, even w. China; 3) China's clear coordinates of 9 Dash Line; 4) military exercise guidelines in EEZ; 5) FONOP mantained; 6) US ratifying UNCLOS.

Dr. Chheang Vannarith, Asian Vision Institute: ASEAN post 2025 will continue to thrive and become a regional base of order for SCS with TAC & COC. ASEAN should build its identity as normative power in promoting the rule of law to protect themselves from “great power capture”

Shahriman Lockman, ISIS Malaysia: ASEAN will have limited utility (due to lack of cohesiveness & member disputes); fisheries resource will be a problem since northen SCS sources are depleted; the business case of oil/gas will not return. #scsc12

Dr Kavi Chongkittavorn, ISIS Thailand hopes for ASEAN TAC to turned into Indo-Pacific TAC. He suggests ASEAN boost cooperation in: raising public awareness of SCS & ASEAN; maritime management & protection. ASEAN & China should continue to build trust. #SCSC12

Richard Heydarian, @StratbaseADRi: ASEAN is at its 4th "soul searching" moment in history & a "middle institutional trap": modalities that worked earlier can't cope with new challenges. #SCSC12

@StratbaseADRi Heydarian's suggestions for ASEAN: 1) utilize consensus building, such as ASEAN minus X formula; 2) embrace minilateralism (Phil, VN & Malaysia nego or Quad+); 3)expand partnership w. Aus & New Zealand. Legally binding COC not good if in favor of China & exclude external players.

@StratbaseADRi Bin Umar, SHHBIDSS, Brunei: there is no reason for ASEAN to not continue its momentum regarding SCS under Brunei chairmanship next year. #scsc12

@StratbaseADRi Richard: evidence exists that minilateralism has helped ASEAN as a whole. Quad+ASEAN minilateralism should be built on UNCLOS & 2016 SCS ruling. #SCSC12

@StratbaseADRi Richard Heydarian (also the most asked speaker so far): Biden will be a crisis president but also has momentum to engage with SCS & ASEAN. RCEP shows that globalism is having a 2nd chance, which Biden can push. That concludes the end of Session 2. #SCSC12

While we’re taking a (lunch) break and enjoying the view of #Hanoi from the 62nd floor, let’s give props to the thoughtful registration team at the 12th South China Sea Conference for handling out free masks and parking tickets. #SCSC12

Session 3-Note Verbales Debate kicks off with #EU Admiral Jurgen Ehle's speech on EU interests in SCS: stability-crucial to trade routes; precedents to be replicated in other seas; & EU cooperation with Indo-Pacific. the EU won't allow any to undermine international law. #SCSC12

Admiral Ehle: EU is in the process of developing an Indo-Pacific policy, incorporating member states' policy. #SCSC12 #SouthChinaSea

Nguyen Thanh Ha from VSIL: 2016 ruling & new note verbales show increasing shared agreement, consolidate UNCLOS regimes in the SCS. #SCSC12

Prof @JayBatongbacal (kudos for having his own timer): the note verbales show common grounds aligned w. UNCLOS. The countries must unify mutual interests based on such grounds & face the most powerful claimant together. #SCSC12 #SouthChinaSea

@JayBatongbacal Prof Lei Xiaolu-Wuhan University: UK & France have own straight baselines while opposing China using the same in SCS. Negative impacts of the notes: 1) increase interference from non-coastal states; 2) overstress disputes & reduce political will for functional cooperation #SCSC12

@JayBatongbacal Damos Agusman- Indonesian MOFA: the Note Verbales chain is an exercise of lawfare, highlights positions of each by mostly using legal terms, w less political consideration involved. #SCSC12 #SouthChinaSea

@JayBatongbacal Andrew Murdoch: Notes verbale is not intervention nor dispute politicization given their content and legal effects. Content: all use legal points/language, carefully framed. Effects: respond to China's claims, practice peaceful settlement, bring clarity to other claims. #SCSC12

@JayBatongbacal Jonathan G. Odom: The Note Verbales has pros (peaceful, official & transparent practice) & cons (further complication, not narrowing claimants' differences). The notes will limitedly impact on COC but show smaller countries can collectively & peacefully address disputes. #SCSC12

@JayBatongbacal Nguyen Thanh Ha on how to define threats to security: look up the criteria in international law. Ms. Ha is also our first female speaker delivering in person. #SCSC12

@JayBatongbacal Sandrine Barbier, France MOFA: France saw that an intervention via Note was necessary; archipelago baselines & straight baselines are different. #SCSC12

@JayBatongbacal Session 3 on the Note Verbales debate concluded. This is also the session with the most online audience, the 1st female speaker (in person) & the most female speakers (3/6). #SCSC12

@JayBatongbacal Session 4-Media influence. Prashanth Parameswaran on how to manage the SCS narrative challenges: contextualize, fact check & approach subject w. humility & caution. Alert: articles can often use incorrect terms, show personal view vs. organizational views #SCSC12

@JayBatongbacal David Hutt from The Diplomat: Journalists are sometimes affected by the consequences of not adhering to certain narratives. Journalists can also be biased, desire to get rid of info or conceal the truth. #SCSC12

@JayBatongbacal Oriana Skylar Mastro from Standford University: China military activities in #SouthChinaSea haven't changed that much in quantities (the increase was predictable & gradual), it was the media that send signals of China capability, especially to the US. #SCSC12

@JayBatongbacal Mastro: there is an uptick in media coverage of China's responses to incidents. China usually downplay its military capability but now overexaggerate the capability. #SCSC12

@JayBatongbacal Kristin Huang from SCMP: China is the victim of its own policy. The censorship & absence of China’s voice in the international social media platforms make it difficult to spread a preferred SCS narrative. #SCSC12

@JayBatongbacal Tips from speakers on how to be a smart media consumer: 1) listen to all sides to avoid "echo chamber"; 2) track sources, including funding and authors' roles. #SCSC12

@JayBatongbacal And that concludes the first day of the 12th South China Sea Conference. Big thanks to the speakers, the guests, the organizers, our online audience & of course all the people working silently behind the scene. See you all tomorrow! #SCSC12