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16 Nov, 7 tweets, 4 min read
Now that results in key battle ground states have stabilized, let’s look at 2-3 polling firms.

First, the ratings that @NateSilver538’s @FiveThirtyEight gives for those firms.

A+ when NYT sponsors Siena.

B+ for @QuinnipiacPoll

C- for @trafalgar_group
Wisconsin:

11 point Biden win per Siena/NYT.

1 point Biden win per Trafalgar.

0.7 is the reported Biden win.

Siena/NYT overshot Biden by 10.3.

Trafalgar overshot Biden by 0.3.

Trafalgar wins this by 10.0.
Michigan:

8 point Biden win per Siena/NYT.

2 point Trump win per Trafalgar.

2.7 is the reported Biden win.

Siena/NYT overshot Biden by 5.3.

Trafalgar overshot Trump by 4.7.

Trafalgar wins this by 0.6.
PA:

6 point Biden win per Siena/NYT.

2 point Trump win per Trafalagar.

0.8 is the reported Biden win.

Siena/NYT overshot Biden by 5.2

Trafalgar overshot Trump by 2.8

Trafalgar wins this by 2.4.
Georgia:

Race tied per NYT/Siena.

5 point Trump win per Trafalgar.

0.3 is the reported Biden win.

Siena/NYT overshot Trump by 0.3.

Trafalgar overshot Trump by 5.3.

Siena/NYT wins this by 5.0.
Arizona:

6 point Biden win per Siena/NYT.

3 point Trump win per Trafalgar.

0.3 is the reported Biden win.

Siena/NYT overshot Biden by 5.7.

Trafalgar overshot Trump by 3.3.

Trafalagr wins this by 2.4 points.
Florida:

3 point Biden win per Siena/NYT.

2 point Trump win per Trafalgar.

3.4 is the reported Trump win.

Siena/NYT overshot Biden by 6.4.

Trafalgar overshot Biden by 1.4.

Trafalagar wins this by 5.

I am sure @NateSilver538 will upgrade Trafalgar and downgrade NYT/Siena.

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More from @YossiGestetner

Yossi Gestetner Profile picture
15 Nov
🚨Just wow.

A recount in NH for a county legislative seat, gave the Dem an additional 380 votes and the GOPer and added 1,600 votes.

In Windham, NH a recount added a few 100 votes per seat where only 8K-9K people voted. This is a HUGE % change of votes.

unionleader.com/news/politics/… ImageImage
Look at a NH’s State Assembly district covering 4 seats (voters in a district choose 4 if I understand it correctly):

The most competitive seat at first had 8,936 votes. 198 were added at recount.

8,020 votes were given in the least competitive seat. 316 were added at recount. Image
🚨 🚨 🚨 Insane numbers out of a NH State Rep district (where voters choose 4 seats):

A GOPer first had 5,256 votes. Recount added 298; a 5.6% jump.

Another had a 6.3% rise; the next had 5.6% and another gained 6.6%.

Recount change for Dems:

0.65%

0.81%

0.75%

LOSS of 2.2% Image
Read 15 tweets
Yossi Gestetner Profile picture
15 Nov
A senior @TeamTrump comms person appeared today on Fox. Instead of giving math/claims why they think Trump can flip back GA, AZ and WI, she spoke about windows being covered in MI during the count as if BOEs have open windows for the public to look at the count. @TeamClowns.
How useless is Trump’s Comms team?

This bad:

Their Director of Comms posted today a 2012 news from the NYT that mail ins have issues. Tim is SO happy with this find that he pinned the tweet.

I tweeted the item a week ago.

Does @TimMurtaugh not have a research team?

Sheesh.
It’s tough to beat @TimMurtaugh on TV; he is a sharp spox but my focus is the points being made or lack thereof.

The same is with @ErinMPerrine yesterday; a senior press person. @LelandVittert was disrespectful (almost abusive) but her points about PA/MI were off the rails.
Read 4 tweets
Yossi Gestetner Profile picture
12 Nov
“Journalists” decided to ask Senate GOPers if Biden should get intel briefings which is why you see so many comments today from senators on this. By saying yes, those Senators indirectly admit that Biden is POTUS-elect which undercuts Trump which is the goal of the question.
“ Biden should continue getting the same intell briefings that presidential candidates get until the election results are certified” is too complex for Santa GOP’s to say. Instead, they say Biden should get full briefings but they also say that the results are not clear.
Basically, @SenateGOP’s - from @SenatorLankford and @LindseyGrahamSC to @JohnCornyn and @SenJohnThune - are stringing along the GOP/Trump base about the election results hoping that they show up for the GA runoffs, but GOP senators think Trump is kaput which is fine.
Read 4 tweets
Yossi Gestetner Profile picture
9 Nov
Those companies really did not know a week before the election that their vaccines are (according to them) 90% effective? L

They did but they wanted Trump out because he took on Big Pharma on pricing.

Amazing what forces tried to get him out and yet how close this is. Just wow.
You see/know that you are being propagandized yet there is little you can do about it. This - not the outcome itself - is the tough part about the 2020 election.

Major Media ran cover for Biden.

Big Tech choked off Cons.

Big Pharma hid news that Trump wanted 2 weeks ago.
CNN, CBS, ABC, NBC, Politico and NYT would not be all “wow, the claimed vaccine effective rate is much higher than planned and Trump’s Wrapped Speed program worked.” They would “meh” it as they did the GDP report. My point is Big Pharma was another machine that undercut Trump.
Read 4 tweets
Yossi Gestetner Profile picture
8 Nov
Trump was attacked for holding rallies while BLM got a pass. The reasoning was “Trump is political but BLM is for justice.” First, political rallies are aimed to win elections and to affect policy; just as BLM wants to change policy. Second, yesterday rallies was for justice too?
This is just one small link in a looooong chain of media coverage bias that helped Biden while it undercut Trump. And of course, Biden was not asked 5 times weekly to condemn the violence, riots and physical attacks on Trump fans by his own supporters. This is the upside of a Dem
presidency: Major media will give us calm.

People rally during Covid-19 without distancing? Meh.

Riots/violence by Bide fans? Gets weak coverage and sure not much “Mr. president. Do you condemn your supporters” drama. Also back to no scandals no matter how bad the corruption.
Read 7 tweets
Yossi Gestetner Profile picture
8 Nov
Obama/Biden Admin spent six months chasing the Russia Collusion hoax.

Brennon/Clapper both admitted that they had nothing by 1/20/17. Yet @Comey went ahead for 5 more months.

Then Mueller looked at it for 22 months.

We can’t spend a few weeks to look at ballot integrity? Pls!
Electors vote mid-December. The rush to claim Biden a winner now (when it can be done in a month or more from now) is a tactic to weaken any calls to review ballots in WI, GA, AZ and PA. It is designed to increase GOP calls that Trump should join the call for a “graceful exit.”
The @TeamTrump PR claim (not sure if it will work out this way):

“We will win AZ and GA outright or after a (hand) recount of all mail in ballots or at a minimum mail ins in counties that used the same software that caused an (alleged) anti-Trump glitch in MI. With AZ/GA aside,
Read 44 tweets

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