Thread by @WilsonKM2

Today in the #AtlanticBubble

There were 10 new cases reported: 2 in Nova Scotia and 8 in New Brunswick.

The two cases in Nova Scotia are both related to a previous case. Public Health has just revealed that both of the new cases are students (one at Graham Creighton Junior High and Auburn Drive High.

These are the first students to test positive in NS since schools re-opened.

The two schools are within walking distance of each other, which makes me think that they're part of a household with an existing case, but that's just me speculating.

All of the close contacts of the students as well as any students that shared a class with them will be tested and will be isolating for 14 days.

Switching to NB: of the 8 new cases, 6 were in Moncton and 2 were in Fredericton. All of them are still under investigation. NB has indicated an additional exposure risk at Tandoori Zaika Cuisine and Bar in Mocton on 08NOV2020 (1-2AM).

In total this leaves 65 known, active cases inside the Bubble.

Ok, let's talk about interpreting daily numbers and their sources.

A lot of times whenever public health releases daily COVID numbers, the reaction on social media is the same regardless of the source of those cases, but not all cases are equal in terms of risk to the community.

When I look at the numbers before putting out the daily report, here's how I tend to interpret the case sources (in increasing levels of concern):

1) Travel-related, isolating
2) Related to previous case
3) Travel-related, was not isolating
4) Under investigation/unknown

If someone tests positive while isolating, the chance of spreading to someone else is basically nil.

If they were linked to a previous case, then we were probably looking for them. Non-trivial chance they were already isolating due to exposure to known case.

If travel-related and not isolating... that's not great. But theoretically we can track them back across the limited amount of time they were here and not isolating.

Under investigation might just mean they haven't had time to do an interview yet.

What we don't want to see are cases without a known source. That implies that there are cases infecting others in the community that we're unaware of.

And that's why the most recent crop of cases in places like Halifax, Moncton, and Fredericton have been more concerning than the ~6 months of travel-related cases we had before: it's not so much the number of cases, it's that they're less reliably linked to travel.

Over the past two weeks in both NS and NB there have been dozens of exposure notifications for bars, restaurants, coffee shops, grocery stores, and gyms.

Why there? Mostly because those are where there is some combination of a large number of people and/or mask non-use.

Hence, higher risk and public notification.

So, if you happen to live in one of the parts of the Bubble that has had some of these cases, please reduce your risk. Your location has become riskier, and you should change your behaviour to reflect that.

This means reducing your indoor dining, maybe switching to virtual classes or at-home workouts. Wear your mask as much as possible when around those not from your household/social bubble. Download the COVID ALERT app. Maintain distance where possible. Prefer outdoor options.

We've been living in, well, a Bubble, here in the Atlantic Region for most of the pandemic, and I think sometimes we forget how bad it can get.

On it's worst day, the Atlantic Region had 864 active cases among 2.4 million people. This week Manitoba had ~400 new cases every day - that's among 650k population. They have over 7k active cases today, and have lost 2.5 times as many people as the entire Bubble.

We're not in any way immune to the virus. The only thing protecting us is the precautions we take individually and as a community.

So please reduce your risk if there are non-travel cases in your area.

Have a great week! Stop getting COVID-19.