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Darren 🦃 Profile picture
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17 Nov, 5 tweets, 4 min read
I'm considering getting a 10" Android tablet to annotate papers.

I'll need a reader that can open the same PDF in two tabs (for both the text and charts sections).

I'll also need to be able to take/name custom screen shots (as in the Windows Snipping tool).

Should I go for it?
@HovmarkSimon @Greenbackd @WoodyWiegmann @aaljechin @ExSan_com @dmitrygenin @NikoFinnigan @KPack1972 @theotherrt @EddieRII
For the record, getting a tablet is an attempt to nudge myself into reading more papers. I'm hoping it will get me to one paper per day, but I am notoriously bad at predicting like every other member of the human race. 🤣
I tried this yesterday, and it looks like a good candidate for the "Snipping Tool on Android" solution:

Snip-it
play.google.com/store/apps/det…

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More from @ReformedTrader

Darren 🦃 Profile picture
17 Nov
1/ Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness (Thaler, Sunstein)

"Small and apparently insignificant details (nudges) can impact people's behavior without forbidding any options or significantly changing economic incentives." (p. 6)

amazon.com/Nudge-Improvin… Image
2/ "To count as a nudge, the intervention must be easy and cheap to avoid. Nudges are not mandates. Putting the fruit at eye level counts as a nudge. Banning junk food does not.

"The power of these small details comes from focusing people's attention in a particular direction.
3/ " “If a man sees a fly, he aims at it.” Kieboom, an economist, directs Schiphol’s building expansion. His staff conducted trials and found that etching images of house flies in urinals reduces urine spillage by 80%." (p. 4)
Read 4 tweets
Darren 🦃 Profile picture
16 Nov
1/ Borrowing Fees and Expected Stock Returns (Hendrix, Crabb)

"Stocks with high borrowing fees tend to underperform their peers over the short term, but persistence of high borrowing fees is fast-decaying and not systematically predictable."

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
2/ "Lending data are sourced from a proprietary database maintained by DFA that contains the global lending activity of its US mutual funds.

"Fee = fed funds rate (or OBFR) – rebate rate.

"We compute a weighted average (by number of shares in each loan) fee for each security."
3/ Small caps are the 10% lowest U.S. market cap, 12.5% in developed ex-U.S., and 15% smallest in emerging markets

Small caps tend to have higher borrowing fees than large caps, more stocks on loan, and a greater dispersion in fees required to borrow the stocks.
Read 15 tweets
Darren 🦃 Profile picture
13 Nov
</Public service announcement>

If you're in a disagreement with someone and he sends you links to research explaining his position and adding nuance, please don't ignore the e-mail and then continue with your original criticism.

Thanks very much!

</public service announcement>
(Although you may not realize it, criticizing and then ignoring the other person's perspective effectively makes the conversation one-sided, even though both people may appear to be continuing to talk.)
On a practical level, I think something like this happens whenever diversification-based approaches like risk parity and factors are brought up.

Those are automatically 'wrong' because there is only one valid approach (cap-weighted U.S. stocks with a sprinking of Treasuries.)
Read 4 tweets
Darren 🦃 Profile picture
10 Nov
1/ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Tetlock, Gardner)

"Foresight isn’t a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. It is the product of particular ways of thinking, of gathering information, of updating beliefs." (p. 18)

amazon.com/Superforecasti…
2/ "The news delivers forecasts without asking how good the forecasters really are. Corporations and governments pay for forecasts that may be prescient, worthless, or something in between. All of us make critical decisions based on forecasts whose quality is unknown." (p. 3)
3/ "Pundits are not on the news because they possess proven skill at forecasting. Old forecasts are like old news—soon forgotten. Pundits are not asked to reconcile what they said with what happened later.

"Talking heads are skilled at telling a compelling story with conviction.
Read 170 tweets
Darren 🦃 Profile picture
4 Nov
1/ Unknown Market Wizards (Jack Schwager)

"There are solo traders, operating in complete obscurity, who achieve performance far surpassing the vast majority of professional managers’.

"Some of them may have the best records I have ever encountered."

amazon.com/Market-Wizards… Image
2/ Peter Brandt

"My brother bought silver coins at a premium of 20% over face value. It was an asymmetric risk trade: you could lose a maximum of 20%, but the upside was unlimited.

"By 1974, silver had more than tripled. My brother was driving around in a Mercedes-Benz." (p. 7)
3/ "Charts have become much less reliable. In the 1970s-80s, patterns were neat. There were fewer whipsaws. There weren’t a lot of people looking at charts.

"I think high-frequency trading creates volatility around breakout points. Markets are more mature, with bigger players.
Read 132 tweets
Darren 🦃 Profile picture
4 Nov
New SSRN papers, November 2020
(I haven't read these yet, but they have abstracts that look interesting.)

Interconnected Deviations from Covered Interest Parity
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

October 2020 edition
Does Bid-Ask Spread Affect Trading in Exchange Operated Dark Pool? – Evidence From a Natural Experiment
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

Managing Earnings to Appear Truthful: The Effect of Public Scrutiny on Exactly Meeting a Threshold
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Dividend Policy and the COVID-19 Crisis
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Read 11 tweets

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