It's hard for some supporters of student loan forgiveness to understand the antipathy toward the idea. But I think a lot of it is this: America has developed into a class society divided between college-educated and non-college classes, and student loans felt like an equalizer.
In other words, I think many people look at the college-educated class, who earn more then them, get more respect, have nicer jobs, have more job security, suffer less employment in recessions, etc., and think "well at least I don't have to pay off a bunch of student loans."
That's not to say I agree with this attitude or that I feel this feeling myself. I don't. I'm just trying to explain it.
What we actually need to do is compress this class society back into a middle-class one, raise wages, improve job security, reduce unemployment, etc.
But even if a big structural transformation of our class society were on the table right now politically, I think a lot of people just don't imagine it happening. So in the meantime, cancelling student debt in isolation just feels like one more free win for the college class.
Personally, I think student debt forgiveness is a good idea, because giant piles of loans hold back the potential of many of our most productive workers, who would otherwise be starting business, switching to better jobs, moving, etc.
But that's a very economist-y view.
Most people out there in the world have distributional preferences -- they don't care so much about whether our society produces higher GDP with less search frictions and blah blah blah, they mostly care about where they fit into that society.
And currently, the non-college class has spent 40 years watching the college class go from strength to strength -- the lords of human capital, the favored children of the New Economy.
Now student debt forgiveness would be one more win for the golden kids.
Of course, to an economist, any win, even for the golden kids, is a win for society. And if student debt is holding our economy back, just get rid of it!
And in fact I think this is the right and obvious thing to do. Duh! More GDP!!
But I've encountered a lot of people pushing back very hard against student debt cancellation, and I'm trying to think about where they're coming from, and I think for a large fraction of them, it's this feeling that cancellation compounds an entrenched form of inequality.
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China's working-age population will hold roughly steady until about 2030, after which it will go into a steep decline. This is already baked into the demographic cake.
If a rapidly shrinking working-age population weakens a country significantly, then China has about one decade left in which to increase its geopolitical power before demographic pressures start to bite.
Which is one reason I'm kind of worried about the 2020s.
In the runup to WW1, Wilhelmine Germany was afraid that every day, Russia's power grew relative to Germany's. It was one reason they wanted a war -- to beat Russia before it got too strong.
Countries that feel like they're on the clock can be very dangerous.
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If @Peter_Turchin wanted to make an anti-immigration argument, his "elite overproduction" thesis would be a more natural fit. He might argue that skilled immigration is displacing educated native-born Americans from the elite positions they had expected to inherit...
In fact, I think there is something to that argument. And I think it's a low-key, little-discussed reason why Dems will probably allow Trump's cuts in legal skilled immigration to stand...