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Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
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18 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Exit polls show Trump with significant gains among Asian voters this year (up +7 relative to 2016).

But exit polls are less reliable this year. Does anyone know of a county-level analysis that tries to get at this?

nytimes.com/interactive/20… Image
In Orange County at least, the Asian voter swing toward Trump seems to have been real.

There's also this:

And this:

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More from @Noahpinion

Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
18 Nov
China's working-age population will hold roughly steady until about 2030, after which it will go into a steep decline. This is already baked into the demographic cake.
If a rapidly shrinking working-age population weakens a country significantly, then China has about one decade left in which to increase its geopolitical power before demographic pressures start to bite.

Which is one reason I'm kind of worried about the 2020s.
In the runup to WW1, Wilhelmine Germany was afraid that every day, Russia's power grew relative to Germany's. It was one reason they wanted a war -- to beat Russia before it got too strong.

Countries that feel like they're on the clock can be very dangerous.
Read 5 tweets
Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
17 Nov
It's hard for some supporters of student loan forgiveness to understand the antipathy toward the idea. But I think a lot of it is this: America has developed into a class society divided between college-educated and non-college classes, and student loans felt like an equalizer.
In other words, I think many people look at the college-educated class, who earn more then them, get more respect, have nicer jobs, have more job security, suffer less employment in recessions, etc., and think "well at least I don't have to pay off a bunch of student loans."
That's not to say I agree with this attitude or that I feel this feeling myself. I don't. I'm just trying to explain it.

What we actually need to do is compress this class society back into a middle-class one, raise wages, improve job security, reduce unemployment, etc.
Read 9 tweets
Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
16 Nov
1/Decolonization and Growth: A brief thread.

Let's see how some large post-colonial nations are doing economically, compared to their former colonizers, since the 1960s.
2/First, Indonesia vs. Netherlands.

Indonesia is still at less than a quarter of the GDP per capita (PPP) of the Netherlands, and suffered a setback from the Asian Financial Crisis.

But it is steadily gaining.
3/Next up: India vs. the UK.

Similar story. India is still only about 1/7 as rich as the UK, but has been gaining steadily in the last two decades.
Read 15 tweets
Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
16 Nov
1/OK, thread of polls on expectations for progressive policies.

When do you expect the U.S. to enact M4A, or something like it?
2/Next poll:

When do you expect the U.S. to enact a Green New Deal worthy of the name?
3/Third poll:

When do you expect the U.S. to enact some form of reparations for Black Americans?
Read 7 tweets
Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
14 Nov
I'm in the razor-thin group of annoying people who want to keep the Senate but get rid of the Electoral College.
The Senate gives disproportionate representation to low-population regions. I think that's fine up to a point. But the Electoral College reduces faith in democracy every time it actually matters; it's only OK when you don't notice it. Thus it's a pure negative for our society.
The filibuster should absolutely go, though.
Read 4 tweets
Noah Smith 🐇 Profile picture
13 Nov
While I don't have a position on @Peter_Turchin's theories overall, I do think that the idea of reducing immigration in order to raise wages makes no sense. Data shows immigration has little effect on wages, and skilled immigration actually raises wages.

theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…
If @Peter_Turchin wanted to make an anti-immigration argument, his "elite overproduction" thesis would be a more natural fit. He might argue that skilled immigration is displacing educated native-born Americans from the elite positions they had expected to inherit...
In fact, I think there is something to that argument. And I think it's a low-key, little-discussed reason why Dems will probably allow Trump's cuts in legal skilled immigration to stand...

Read 6 tweets

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