If you haven’t already read this very good opinion article (before it is removed)

politico.eu/article/europe…
I regard this piece as the only viable basis for a EU-wide compromise. Every single word has been tested and measured. Two strong messages that must be combined:
“There is no real reason why Europeans should not be able to show more of a presence — and more muscle, when needed — in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, in Central and Eastern Europe, in the Balkans, the Middle East, the Mediterranean and the Sahel.”
“Illusions of European strategic autonomy must come to an end: Europeans will not be able to replace America’s crucial role as a security provider.”

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More from @MacaesBruno

18 Nov
Reading this. So far more of an Anthony Minghella movie script than the enquiry into the “mystery of fascism” I was hoping for. Image
This is how I see the mystery Image
From Perfect Fascist, the dream of Eurafrica
Read 6 tweets
17 Nov
I think they would welcome Russian troops in their land if they replaced - as the agreement stipulates - Armenian troops and that meant all of Karabakh (Russian troops are limited to very small area) was now effectively their land
People in Azerbaijan will also tell you the text allows them to request Russian exit after 5 years, but again I doubt Azerbaijan will do it. Turkish presence more important
Situation in parts of Karabakh will remain tense for a long time. I am sure Azerbaijani authorities will prefer not to be alone on the ground.
Read 5 tweets
16 Nov
Interesting piece in @novaya_gazeta detailing the extent of the Azerbaijani victory and the problems facing the Russian peacekeeping contingent
content.novayagazeta.ru/posts/2020/11/…
First - and I had not seen this before - within three years Azerbaijan will take control over the city of Lachin and a new road will be built connecting Armenia to Karabakh
Second, Stepanakert is compared to Mitrovica in Kosovo, a city that could well be majority Armenian but will be part of the Azerbaijan state
Read 4 tweets
16 Nov
I suspect it will be more difficult for European newspapers to delete pieces critical of Macron in the future
“The Financial Times took the article off the internet — something a spokeswoman, Kristina Eriksson, said she couldn’t recall the publication ever having done before. It was also the first time, Stephen Brown said, that Politico had ever taken down an opinion article.”
Remarkable but true that we now need the @nytimes to tell us what is happening between European media and politicians and to throw light on important decisions being made
Read 4 tweets
15 Nov
If you want to understand what happened in Karabakh compare 2016 where Russia was able to stop Azerbaijan to 2020. See this interview with Azerbaijani defence minister from 2017
ria.ru/20170713/14983…
Two days into the war in 2016 Sergey Shoigu called him. "He said this business had to stop, the leadership of the countries are going to talk about it." And the business stopped. In 2020 the call either did not happen or was ignored
Consequence: Azerbaijan no longer fears Russia, Armenia no longer trusts it
Read 4 tweets
11 Nov
Good @EurasiaNet map Image
Note how 30% of Karabakh proper is now occupied by Azerbaijan, including Shusha, which commands the valleys. Nakhchivan corridor is now possible as Zangilan area also under Azerbaijani control
Would Azerbaijan want to control Stepanakert at this time? Not really. Better let the Russians do it. It won’t be easy... if sustainable at all
Read 4 tweets

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