I think they would welcome Russian troops in their land if they replaced - as the agreement stipulates - Armenian troops and that meant all of Karabakh (Russian troops are limited to very small area) was now effectively their land
People in Azerbaijan will also tell you the text allows them to request Russian exit after 5 years, but again I doubt Azerbaijan will do it. Turkish presence more important
Situation in parts of Karabakh will remain tense for a long time. I am sure Azerbaijani authorities will prefer not to be alone on the ground.
In an ideal world Azerbaijan would find a better neighbourhood but life is what it is
All this misses the point. If the Kremlin places a call today on some matter related say to energy, Baku will be in a very comfortable place to ignore it. Two months ago it was not
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I regard this piece as the only viable basis for a EU-wide compromise. Every single word has been tested and measured. Two strong messages that must be combined:
“There is no real reason why Europeans should not be able to show more of a presence — and more muscle, when needed — in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, in Central and Eastern Europe, in the Balkans, the Middle East, the Mediterranean and the Sahel.”
First - and I had not seen this before - within three years Azerbaijan will take control over the city of Lachin and a new road will be built connecting Armenia to Karabakh
Second, Stepanakert is compared to Mitrovica in Kosovo, a city that could well be majority Armenian but will be part of the Azerbaijan state
“The Financial Times took the article off the internet — something a spokeswoman, Kristina Eriksson, said she couldn’t recall the publication ever having done before. It was also the first time, Stephen Brown said, that Politico had ever taken down an opinion article.”
Remarkable but true that we now need the @nytimes to tell us what is happening between European media and politicians and to throw light on important decisions being made
If you want to understand what happened in Karabakh compare 2016 where Russia was able to stop Azerbaijan to 2020. See this interview with Azerbaijani defence minister from 2017 ria.ru/20170713/14983…
Two days into the war in 2016 Sergey Shoigu called him. "He said this business had to stop, the leadership of the countries are going to talk about it." And the business stopped. In 2020 the call either did not happen or was ignored
Consequence: Azerbaijan no longer fears Russia, Armenia no longer trusts it
Note how 30% of Karabakh proper is now occupied by Azerbaijan, including Shusha, which commands the valleys. Nakhchivan corridor is now possible as Zangilan area also under Azerbaijani control
Would Azerbaijan want to control Stepanakert at this time? Not really. Better let the Russians do it. It won’t be easy... if sustainable at all