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17 Nov, 8 tweets, 2 min read
I'm possibly an insane person, but I just traded Christian McCaffrey and Mike Evans for D'Andre Swift, Tee Higgins, and a late 1st and 3rd.

Do with this information what you will.
Digging more into this deal.

The other team is not going all-in on chasing a championship. In fact, I am the team with the better title odds (2nd-best in the league right now). And losing McCaffrey noticeably hurts them.
I've written before about how I don't do "win-now" deals. I don't sacrifice value for a few percentage point bump in current-year championship odds.

This is the corollary. I *WILL* sacrifice a few percentage points in championship odds if I feel I'm getting value for them!
Overall, the other guy and I are the two GMs who have most prioritized youth and are best set up for the future.

Other guy had Burrow, Swift, Taylor, Gibson, Metcalf, Higgins, Moore, and Engram, plus four 2021 firsts. Tons of youth. Wanted to convert some to production.
He's chasing the last playoff spot. McCaffrey will help a ton. He did one of the most aggressive strip-to-studs rebuilds I've ever seen and I think was ready to come out the other side and compete. Kudos to him.
I've had the most success in the league's history. In the past eight years I've ranked 1st in all-play win% five times, 2nd twice, & 3rd once.

A large part of that is my willingness to aggressively rebuild on the fly. Trade proven production for young production on the upswing.
Sometimes I swing hard and miss hard. You want some nightmare fuel? Take a look at this list of some of the trades I've made over the years. *GREAT* chance that this trade is going to wind up on the list in a couple years.

But if the goal is to stay on top of the pile you've gotta take some risks, because the very fabric of dynasty leagues is built to pull you back down to the pack. Resting on your laurels equals sliding back to mediocrity.

Was this a good risk? A bad risk? Time will tell.

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More from @AdamHarstad

Adam Harstad Profile picture
18 Nov
Five and a half years ago, I live-tweeted a dynasty rankings update. It was fun, and it's cool to have a historical archive of my thought process at the time. I think it holds up pretty well.

QBs: wakelet.com/wake/ce4738c2-…
RBs: wakelet.com/wake/6ecb9082-…
WRs: wakelet.com/wake/a552e78d-…
I find myself with 30 minutes to kill and kind of wanted to hammer out my WR rankings. Stream-of-consciousness style. Don't know how deep I'll go but I think the position is interesting and talking it out will be clarifying.

Feel free to mute me in advance.
WR1 - DK Metcalf
WR2 - AJ Brown

Easiest calls. I could be tempted to go contrarian with Brown over Metcalf, but Metcalf's higher market value gives you a lot more flexibility if you decide to trade one for a king's ransom.

Either way: crazy young, crazy good, super productive.
Read 30 tweets
Adam Harstad Profile picture
17 Nov
Want to expand on this. The trade is *NOT* me trying to get out on CMC while the getting is good. He's still my #1 rated player in all of dynasty!
I have fantasy value for every player back to 1985. McCaffrey has the most fantasy value of any running back through age 23.

Among retired players, 11 of the top 12 had more fantasy value *AFTER* age 23. Usually much more. I don't think his value is even half-gone yet.
(The lone exception was Clinton Portis, who added 472 points over a waiver-wire replacement through age 23, then 412 points over a waiver-wire replacement after.)
Read 4 tweets
Adam Harstad Profile picture
17 Nov
High on both Swift *and* Higgins.

Not worried about CMC. Was really painful to part with him. The advantage he gives even over the 2nd/3rd best players at the position cannot be overstated. It’s virtually irreplaceable.
Some aspects of the deal were unique to my team. I viewed it as CMC for Swift and Higgins, plus Evans for the 1st/3rd as juice to get the deal done.

My other WRs are now AJBrown, Thomas, McLaurin, Higgins, Golladay, Aiyuk, and Robby Anderson, so Evans was more expendable.
Ideally, players should either be (A) starting for you or (B) young. Evans was neither. (Despite what the dynasty community would have you believe, 27 is not old. But it’s not young, either.)

So I was content to get value for him, even at a slight loss.
Read 5 tweets
Adam Harstad Profile picture
17 Nov
Cordarrelle Patterson has played 18 games at Soldier Field. Gale Sayers played 34 games there. Devin Hester played 60.

Cordarrelle Patterson has as many kickoff return touchdowns at Soldier Field (4) as Gale Sayers and Devin Hester combined (2 each).
Cordarrelle Patterson is almost certainly going to finish this year with at least 15 kickoff returns and at least 28 yards per return for the seventh time in his career.

That’d be as many such seasons as any two players in history combined.
Yesterday, Patterson joined Josh Cribbs, Bobby Mitchell, and Allen Rossum as the only players in history to return a kickoff for a touchdown in five different seasons.

Today, Cordarrelle Patterson stands alone as the only player to do it in six.
Read 6 tweets
Adam Harstad Profile picture
11 Nov
Hi Late Night Twitter, also known as Regular Night Twitter to all my west coast twitter buddies.

So @RyanMc23 gave me a peak at the hot new not-even-out-of-the-oven-yet dynasty ADP for @DLFootball because I was going to do something for him, but then I didn't. Sorry, Ryan.
And also I just recently re-ran my naive dynasty value formula. (For those who aren't in the know, basically it's just a formula where I input age, position, and 2020 projections and it spits out dynasty values. It's naive because it doesn't consider anything else!)
The extra context the formula doesn't consider is v. important. I think Saquon Barkley has non-zero dynasty value, but my formula disagrees because Saquon Barkley does not have non-zero 2020 projections!

I use the naive version as a check though because it's easy and I'm lazy.
Read 49 tweets
Adam Harstad Profile picture
8 Nov
I’ve been juggling Wilson and Mahomes in one of my dynasty leagues. Here’s how many points I’d have if I started:

510.4 - Right call every week
461.6 - Wilson every week (except bye)
441.4 - Mahomes every week
392.6 - Wrong call every week

**428.2 - Actual results.
Thoughts:
* Start/sit is hard. Sure, you *COULD* play matchups with two QBs to get more points. But I've done a lot of research suggesting you probably won't. Most players average more points in weeks they're benched than weeks they're started. Both Mahomes and Wilson do for me.
* Bigger thought: if your players are good enough, it doesn't really matter. My largely-failed matchup plays (I'm 2-of-8 in picking the right guy) still lead the league in QB scoring by a considerable margin.

Easiest way to win is to just maximize talent on your roster.
Read 4 tweets

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