Thread by @AdamHarstad

Five and a half years ago, I live-tweeted a dynasty rankings update. It was fun, and it's cool to have a historical archive of my thought process at the time. I think it holds up pretty well.

QBs: wakelet.com/wake/ce4738c2-…
RBs: wakelet.com/wake/6ecb9082-…
WRs: wakelet.com/wake/a552e78d-…

I find myself with 30 minutes to kill and kind of wanted to hammer out my WR rankings. Stream-of-consciousness style. Don't know how deep I'll go but I think the position is interesting and talking it out will be clarifying.

Feel free to mute me in advance.

WR1 - DK Metcalf
WR2 - AJ Brown

Easiest calls. I could be tempted to go contrarian with Brown over Metcalf, but Metcalf's higher market value gives you a lot more flexibility if you decide to trade one for a king's ransom.

Either way: crazy young, crazy good, super productive.

And then things get interesting.

Got some established superstars in the 27-28 age range. Not old. But not young, either.

Got some fiiiiiiiiire up-and-comers in the 21-23 range. Monster upside, but very short track record.

Plus you have 25-year-old Terry McLaurin. He's a boss.

By my naive value formula (which only considers age, position, and RoY projections), #3 guy is Tee Higgins. (Actually, Higgins is #2 over Brown.)

Yes. Tee Higgins.

Formula doesn't consider context. Higgins is not going to be my #3 guy. But he's gonna be higher than you expect.

Higgins vs. Jefferson vs. Lamb is a really tough one for me. All three are going to be in my Top 12.

Those three vs. Adams / Hopkins / Thomas / Keenan Allen / Diggs is also really tough.

Add in McLaurin and that's your 2nd tier. It's deep. And I don't know what to do with it.

(Takes a quick break to see if he forgot anyone else in this tier.)

Oh snap. Tyreek Hill. Duh.

Ridley, Godwin, JuJu, Moore? Nah, we'll get to them in a bit.

So, here's my Top 12, now I have to make sense of it.

Among the "old guys" (27+), RoY projections have them: Adams, Allen, Diggs, Hopkins, Thomas. Thomas a good way back, but he's obviously got the past production. Diggs is the youngest of the bunch.

So let's sort them first. I'll tentatively go Adams, Diggs, Hopkins, Thomas, Allen. Now to sort the young guys. Let's go Jefferson, Higgins, Lamb. And for the medium guys, McLaurin > Hill because he's not at risk of a lifetime suspension or anything. (That we know of.)

Now to shuffle them together. Let's try...
Jefferson
Adams
Higgins
Lamb
Diggs
Hopkins
Thomas
McLaurin
Allen
Hill

I guess. I don't know, I don't think the order here really matters all that much. They're all close. Team needs will probably determine specific preferences.

Now that I see this I want to tinker with it. (Do I really want Diggs over Hopkins?) If I let myself, I could spend hours on these ten names alone. But I don't think the cost/benefit would be all that great, so I'm just going to call it and move on.

Time to throw some names into the next tier. Jeudy, Ridley, Evans, Golladay, Godwin, DJMoore, Claypool, Robinson, Lockett. This is not in order, just putting the tier together, I'll sort it in a bit.

Pause for a moment to see if I'm forgetting anyone.

Forgetting Amari Cooper. Add him to the list.

Juju? Hmmmmm...
Aiyuk??? Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...

Pause to consider.

Oh yeah. Also strongggggggly considering Will Fuller here. Hate me all you want for it, IDC.

I'm going to tentatively shelve all three and shuffle them into the next tier. I reserve the right to change my mind.

So, sorting this group from youngest to oldest I have: Jeudy, Claypool, Moore, Godwin, Ridley, Cooper, Golladay, Robinson, Evans, Lockett. More or less.

From most-to-least productive: Lockett, Robinson, Ridley, Golladay, Claypool, Godwin, Moore, Evans, Cooper, Jeudy.

Ridley and Claypool seem to punch above their weight in age vs. production. I'd still have Jeudy above Claypool. So... Ridley, Jeudy, Claypool, Lockett, Moore, Godwin, Golladay, Robinson, Evans, Cooper.

Good enough? Good enough.

Next group. Juju, Aiyuk, Fuller. Let's say in that order. Moving on.

Next group (not in order): Boyd, Diontae Johnson, Sutton. Reagor's in here. Let's add Kupp. Thielen and Julio? I think if you're contending you're starting to consider that short-term edge, especially Julio. Beckham time, too. Let's throw in Chark, Kirk, and Cooks. Big group.

(pause to see if I forgot anyone.)

Let's pull Kirk out and put him in the next group with Ruggs, Shenault, Deebo, Marquise Brown, etc. The "Young Prospect with Upside" bucket, aka YPWUs.

So, quickly... Diontae Johnson, Reagor, Julio, Sutton, Chark, Beckham, Kupp, Boyd, Cooks, Thielen. It's... I don't love it. But I don't hate it, either. I can live with it!

Time for the YPWUs! If y'all have followed me for a while, you know I mostly treat these guys as interchangeable lottery tickets. Get yourself a couple and hope for the best. If anyone wants to overpay for one of your lottery tickets, let them.

Hollywood, Ruggs, Shenault, Robby Anderson, Kirk, Deebo, Robert Woods. (Anderson and Woods aren't YPWUs. It's a fluid process.)

Once we're past the YPWUs it gets pretty ugly and I quickly lose interest. People mentioned Mecole Hardman, N'Keal Harry, Jakobi Myers, Preston Williams, Mike Williams. Michael Pittman. Lots of guys with reasons to like them.

The answer to all of them is "sure, why not?"

So running it back, here's where I'm at

1. DK
2. AJB
----
3. Jefferson
4. Adams
5. Higgins
6. Lamb
7. Diggs
8. Hopkins
9. Thomas
10. McLaurin
11. Allen
12. Hill
----
13. Ridley
14. Jeudy
15. Claypool
16. Lockett
17. DJM
18. Godwin
19. Golladay
20. ARob
21. Evans
22. Amari
----

23. JuJu
24. Aiyuk
25. Fuller
----
26. Diontae
27. Reagor
28. Julio
29. Sutton
30. Chark
31. Beckham
32. Kupp
33. Boyd
34. Cooks
35. Thielen
----
36. MBrown
37. Ruggs
38. Shenault
39. Robby
40. Kirk
41. Deebo
42. Woods
----
43. Sure, why not?

This is just a quick first pass, I usually don't love my rankings until I've been through them about three times.

High-level takeaways: the position is *deep*. The top tiers are deep. Makes getting any one particular player less important. Very interchangeable.

Also, because there are so many good values at the moment it's a bit more tempting than usual to swing for the fences. My rankings deviate quite substantially from consensus in a number of places. I love when that happens.

Unless I'm wrong, in which case it sucks.

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