Asset classes are defined by the preferences of a generation. So how will the world's first digitally-native cohort behave?
Millennials get a lot of the attention, but the future of Bitcoin will one day be driven by Generation Z to see the asset through to its maturity.
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Firstly, who is Gen Z? What are the generational boundaries?
There’s still much debate about the exact cut-off for millennials, but let’s take the @pewresearch definition of people born between 1997-2012. Making this cohort currently between 8 and 23 years of age.
Secondly, how significant is Gen Z in terms of size?
While population growth in the West has slowed to a crawl, the number of young people in Western Africa and parts of Asia exploded in recent years and will continue on a steep incline.
"Africa will define the future (especially the bitcoin one!)."
What major event have shaped their experience so fat?
“The defining things in life are the things that happen in early formative years, your early teens and mid-teens. For Gen Z, that event was the financial crisis.”
-Bill Handel, @TheRaddonReport
The youngest Gen Z’s do not know a world without Bitcoin in it.
It’s as much of a mainstay in the financial world as any other viable investment. Though this time they get to be part of the asset's birth story and ride it to maturity.
A few key attributes about this generation.
1. They’re well-educated and have grown up with access to the all the recorded knowledge in human history.
3. Hammered by the post-COVID job market, coupled with greater access to freelancing platforms and tools for building online businesses, Gen Z is unlikely to risk placing all their eggs in one basket. The true ascent of online small business is coming.
4. Gen Z have learnt from our mistakes. Trusting third parties with your personal data is a risk to be avoided where possible. They also demand a service that is operational 24/7.
Generation Z: Fuelling Disruption in Financial Services via Target Group bit.ly/3lrxKF6
Gen Z: Approaching Money Differently via @visualcapitalist bit.ly/32BFQ6M
What about the attributes of bitcoin and the digital world in general that they intuitively understand?
1. The value proposition of pseudonymous identities when communicating online
2. The digital world as a more dynamic and convenient alternative to the physical.
“Fortnite operates as much like a social network as a game..
that’s what Fortnite is: a community, a virtual 'third place', the Starbucks of its day."
-Peter Suderman (NYT, 25 May 2019)
3. Gen Z are intimately familiar with non-gov’t issued digital monies and transacting instantly, without friction, in their chosen realms.
4. “Gen Z is more interested in digital payments products & services than any other generation.
Over half use digital wallets monthly, and over three-quarters use other digital payment apps or P2P apps..” -@businessinsider
“The most important driver of anything tied to money is the stories people tell themselves and the preferences they have for goods & services. Those things don’t tend to sit still. They change with culture and generation.” -@morganhousel
What about how Gen Z is approaching money & investing?
“trust is actually eroding in institutions and legacy providers of financial services. And trust in software and technology startups is really increasing.”
-@illscience (GP @ a16z)
Older Gen Z’s are actively seeking alternatives as the incentives of holding cash savings has evaporated in their lifetime.
“In a world where benchmark interest rates globally are near, at, or below zero, the opportunity cost of not allocating to bitcoin is higher.“ -Fidelity
Although buying power is relatively limited at the moment, Gen Z’s current habits (investing > saving in fiat) will shape what they do when they see their wealth increase.
Manole Capital 2020 Gen-Z Financial Services Survey: bit.ly/3f0MVCE
“Why would I go to someone for financial advice when I can find what I need online? It’s DIY, it’s tech, it’s an alternative to an older model.”
-Jonah Stillman, co-author of 'Gen Z @ Work'
Gen Z's are spending more time in finance apps %Y/Y
The accessibility of Bitcoin, as permissionless, makes it an attractive option for a generation with high rates of smartphone ownership and internet connectivity.
Low interest rates on cash savings + declining trust in institutions + access to investment products/assets via technology = independent approach to personal finance
What sort of power does this generation have in the decisions they make with their money? Turns out, not much...yet.
Data source: The Power of Gen Z Influence via Barkey bit.ly/3koCCcz
In the coming decades the largest generational wealth transfer we’ve ever seen is set to take place. This wealth will need a home to protect its purchasing power against the ever-increasing money supply.
Some selected tweets from @naval's most recent appearance on The Tim Ferriss Show that specifically reference how he is currently thinking about Bitcoin + crypto.
1/ "I think cryptocurrencies are probably one of the greatest inventions in human history and the reason why they’re interesting is because if you look to the technology industry, technology plays in unregulated spaces."
2/ "It is a digital frontier that is being created, now that the physical frontiers are all closed and the new world has been colonized and the wild west has been tamed."
Another Bitcoin cycle means another wave of FUD in the form of red herrings, false claims & flawed arguments.
Some are due to ignorance, some are intentionally misleading and some are just pure lazy.
So, here are the most common BAD TAKES to be on the lookout for.
THREAD
“There is nothing inherent about the tools used to facilitate crimes that makes them criminal in themselves. Despite criminal use, no one is calling for the ban of roads, the internet, mail, etc.” @parkeralewis
“It is logically inconsistent to form a view that bitcoin is sufficiently functional to be viable as a currency for criminals, while at the same time deny the implication that such a view would merely establish that bitcoin is functional for everyone.” @parkeralewis
The Price of Tomorrow by @JeffBooth explains what happens when deflationary technology meets inflationary money.
It’s also a guide for where we might be headed.
“What is coming next in technology changes the rules in a way that too few understand.”
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Jeff is exceptional in anticipating the exponential speed at which technology develops, while understanding the surrounding economic environment.
Few are better positioned to explain what is happening today.
My key takeaway:
The speed of technology deflation outruns monetary inflation.
A mandate to create inflation is a losing battle against tech products + services that are, by nature, deflationary. It will only serve to unevenly redirect inflation into other areas of an economy.
This is the story of two disruptive innovations, several centuries apart, with remarkable similarities.
My hope is that you'll gain insight into the largely invisible technological forces that alter the incentives of obedience and steer the evolution of how we organise society.
What Johannes Gutenberg and Satoshi Nakamoto unleashed would prove to have ramifications far greater than anyone could have imagined at the respective time.
Their *information-freeing* innovations challenged stale and burdensome institutions, ripe for a grass-roots disruption.
Let’s begin with TRUST- the key ingredient that enables us to cooperate and trade.
Assessing it requires access to accurate information.
Maintaining it requires delivering on promises or social contracts.
Throughout history, jurisdictions that enabled citizens to accumulate + store wealth in a sound money saw periods of immense innovation, cultural richness & relative peace.
It acts as a magnet for both capital and the highly skilled.
By permitting access to sound money, a government or ruler is providing proof that they are not able to steal from the people. Abuse of this trust, through coin clipping or metal debasement, has almost always coincided with downfall.
Confidence in one's money holding value will influence a person's confidence in their future. This incentivises making decisions that consider a longer time horizon and encourage community engagement.