1/6 Thread: $ETSY Conference call with RBC (17 Nov, 2020)

Before I share my notes from the call, here's my deep dive on Etsy if you haven't read it already.

mbi-deepdives.com/etsy-a-handmad…
2/6 Image I: Search result on Etsy today is "dramatically better" than it was 2 years ago.

Image II: How communication between buyers and sellers continues to differentiate the Etsy experience from Amazon, Walmart etc. ImageImage
3/6 "...we don't give the teams a specific dollar budget. We give them an ROI threshold to hit, and we want them to keep spending until they meet-until they no longer meet that threshold."

Paid GMS now 20-21% of all GMS, up from 15-16% last year. ImageImage
4/6 Is supply chain constraint a concern for $ETSY during holiday season?

Nope. It's a problem for other e-tailers, but doesn't seem to be an issue for Etsy. Image
5/6 Image I: The chicken-and-egg problem to build a marketplace, and how $ETSY solves the problem when they enter a new market

Image II: In UK, and Germany, half of the GMS comes from domestic sellers. ImageImage
6/6 Shoutout to @theTIKR for the transcripts.

You can sign up for their service for free by following the link (I don't get paid to do this, I just love the service):

app.tikr.com/register?ref=z…

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More from @borrowed_ideas

16 Nov
1/ Notes from @humankarp and @RohanAOza episode at @InvestLikeBest

This one was primarily focused on brands. And the word "Apple" was mentioned 14 times.

Here are my notes.
2/ "...a brand really means to me that if you turn off your marketing engine and you're not splattering the consumer with reminders of buy my product, buy my product, buy my product. Do they remember you? Does it last, Does it last in different cycles?"
3/ Two major weaknesses among brands:

1. Weak-ish teams
2. Underwhelming gross margins.

Your gross margins need to be north of 50%.
Read 9 tweets
14 Nov
1/7 Thread: Why this isn't dot-com bubble

I had this Polen Capital think piece open in a tab for months. I finally read it tonight.

Polen shares some interesting data points to argue how much the current cycle differs from the tech bubble.
2/7 From 2008-2019, Russell 1000 Growth Index (R1G) beat Russell 1000 Value Index (R1V) by >300%.

There was another era when such wide margin between them existed. It was 1988-1999.

We all know how that ended. So our pattern matching brain is tempted to infer the parallel.
3/7 Unlike the tech bubble which was propped by multiple expansion, Polen argues much of the outperformance in the current cycle is driven by fundamentals.

These two images comparing the two cycles make that case.
Read 8 tweets
13 Nov
1/7 h/t @AlbertBridgeCap

I do not come from money. The only reason I could even dream of coming from Bangladesh to the US for my MBA was I could get 100% of my tuition financed by student loan without any co-signor (I don't have any relative in the US).
2/7 Wholesale cancel of student loans creates the same kind of unintended consequence as canceling standardized tests does.

Most kids from my background go to schools that people in the US have never heard about even though acceptance rate in some of the schools back home is <5%
3/7 When standardized tests are canceled, it's hard to stand out with our no-name schools and lack of well curated extra-curricular filled resume.

I know they aren't talking about canceling student loans of international students, and they shouldn't.
Read 7 tweets
12 Nov
1/ Thread: Is the market too short-term or too long-term oriented?

The question probably sounds a bit rhetorical since the overwhelming consensus seems to be that Mr. Market is too short-term oriented. I'm not so sure.

Let me explain.
2/ BVP Emerging Cloud Index today closed at 17.9x EV/Revenue multiple.

High multiples fundamentally imply long growth runway and extended period of competitive moat for a long time.
3/ Doesn't market's willingness to ignore profitability in the short-term to give companies the time to ultimately dominate the industry in the long run indicate investors are playing the long game?
Read 10 tweets
9 Nov
1/ Notes from @anuhariharan episode at @InvestLikeBest

This one is packed with quality qualitative insights, most of which are also backed by numbers. The whole conversation makes me optimistic about the future.

Here are my notes.
2/ Good point about looking at tech businesses in terms of functions, and not in terms of industries; makes you think a good tech analyst probably has more transferable skillset than other sector analysts.
3/ The pitch for DoorDash which is expected to IPO before the end of the year.

Interesting how most investors seriously overestimate winner-take-all (or most) possibility in a market when most markets have usually room for 3/4 players, especially since end markets are so large.
Read 13 tweets
6 Nov
1/ Thread: $UBER 3Q’2020 Earnings Update

If you have been following me for a while, you know I haven’t been bullish on $UBER.

Mr. Market has so far disagreed with me. It’s up 20% in the last two months.

Let’s see how this quarter went.
2/ Rides was down 50% YoY. Take rates down ~290 bps QoQ. Adj EBITDA is coming back strongly from last quarter.
3/ Is Mobility segment improving in October? Not much.

In October, Mobility was ~$28 Bn run-rate bookings. For context, in 2019, it was $49.7 Bn.
Read 14 tweets

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