Thread by @ashishkjha

Number of COVID infections is high, rising.

What should we expect between now and December 1?

How many more infections?

Looking at the last 6 weeks gives us some clues

But bottom line?

We will likely have 250K to 300K new daily infections by December 1

Thread

All data from @COVID19Tracking and 7-day moving avgs

Oct 1 to Oct 15

42K new cases --> 53K new cases

This was an increase of 24% off base of 42K cases

Oct 16 to Oct 31

53K --> 78K; Increased 46% off base of 53K

Nov 1 to Nov 16

78K-->150K; Increased 88% off base of 78K

2/4

So infections accelerating off of a higher and higher baseline

If things continue without intervention, expect around 300K or more new cases on December 1

And the implications for hospitalizations and deaths is awful

But a few things can alter this:

3/4

So what can change the trajectory?

1. Restrictions like what Michigan, others doing to bend the curve

2. Personal behavior: people pull back as they see their local hospitals full

These would be good

But a third possibility is strained testing capacity and its not good

4/6

We already see testing failing to keep up with infections

That's why test + rates doubled in last month

As infections rise, if testing can't increase, will see slowing growth of cases

But this is not good: will mean infections are rising but we are missing more of them

5/6

Bottom line?

We are on track to hit 300K new infections daily by 12/1

We may not if testing starts to falter. But that won't be good

We can actually turn it around by policy interventions, personal behavioral change

But the time to act is now

Fin