Great we're again discussing the real and manmade problem of climate

But let's get the facts straight

Hurricanes are not increasing in frequency

The best way to help Central America is not climate policy but helping them out of poverty

journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/9…
Best long-term data is US landfalling hurricanes, because reliably recorded since 1900

Frequency of all hurricanes *not* increasing

Frequency of strongest hurricanes (Cat3+) *not* increasing

journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/9…
Just using data across entire Atlantic has two problems:

1) Earlier years, especially after opening of Panama Canal, many storms missed

Here observations of the two strongest hurricane years 1933 and 2005

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.102…
Thus, you need to readjust for missing hurricane numbers in early years

nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/landsea-et…
Just using storm frequency across entire Atlantic has two problems:

2) Satellite data starts around 1970, when Atlantic hurricanes are in a lull. Only looking from 1970s will incorrectly give an impression of an increase

journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/9…
Yes, 2020 Atlantic hurricane season very powerful

But Accumulated Cyclone Energy (the integrated metric of frequency, intensity+duration)

2020 only 14th-strongest

1933 — almost a century ago — still strongest, followed by 2005, 2017, 1893 and 1926

journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/d…
Don't just look for strong hurricanes and say 'see, climate makes them worse!'

We have to look across the world:

Yes, 2020 worse in Atlantic+NIndian
But 2020 much better in W, E and Central Pacific

In total, 2020 is *less* strong at 76% of normal year
climatlas.com/tropical/
In future, climate will likely make hurricanes

*fewer* but *stronger*

Fewer is better, but stronger is worse, meaning overall damages will increase (this is why climate is a problem)

Here from UN Climate Panel latest 2018 report, p178
ipcc.ch/sr15/
But richer also means more resilience against catastrophes

when hurricane Mitch hit poorer Honduras in 1998, it killed 7,000 and cost 70% of their GDP

when hurricanes hit Flordia, it kills few people and cost a fraction of a percent of Flordia GDP

repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/2…
That is why climate-related damages are declining, not increasing, as the world is getting richer

Update of sciencedirect.com/science/articl… from doi.org/10.1080/174778…
The UN estimate especially the developing world will get richer during the 21st century, with inequality declining dramatically in the UN's middle-of-the-road scenario (SSP2)

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Hurricane damages are about 0.04% of GDP now

With no climate change, increasing prosperity reduces hurricane damage to 0.01% of GDP in 2100

With climate change, prosperity reduces damages to 0.02% of GDP

Damages will at least *halve* from .04% to .02%

nature.com/articles/nclim…
Biden's most extreme climate policy will cost trillions yet reduce temperatures by just about 0.1°C (0.2°F) by 2100 (linkedin.com/posts/the-econ…)

It will help Central America almost nothing

But bringing prosperity can increase resilience, lower vulnerability and drive development
Social and economic policies are typically much more effective than climate policies

— for some interventions, a dollar spent on reducing vulnerability can help 52 times more than one spent on climate policy

royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rs…
Great to want to help

But help effectively:

Poor Nicaraguans are struggling with mudslides and flooding

Suggesting helping them by putting up solar panels in the US is spectacularly ineffective

Help them with prosperity and resilience, eg free trade
bostonglobe.com/opinion/2017/0…

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More from @BjornLomborg

18 Nov
Great we're again discussing the real and manmade problem of climate

But let's get the facts straight

Hurricanes are not increasing in frequency

The best way to help Central America is not climate policy but lifting them out of poverty

journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/9…
Best long-term data is US landfalling hurricanes, because reliably recorded since 1900

Frequency of all hurricanes *not* increasing

Frequency of strongest hurricanes (Cat3+) *not* increasing

journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/9…
Just using storm frequency across entire Atlantic has two problems:

1) Earlier years, especially after opening of Panama Canal, many storms missed

Here observations of the two strongest hurricane years 1933 and 2005

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.102…
Read 15 tweets
14 Oct
New UN report claims climate-related disasters have doubled

The report is incompetent and wrong on pretty much all accounts

The report should be withdrawn

Thread

Report here: undrr.org/news/drrday-re…
Data here: public.emdat.be
New UN report claims climate-related disasters doubled

Yet, even the report's own data shows the number of climate-related dead has *halved*

Report here: undrr.org/news/drrday-re…
Data here: public.emdat.be
Death data is relatively robust

Instead, almost all non-death data is much better reported towards the present. That is the main reason the UN finds an increase in numbers.

Yet, they simply wave it away

Report here: undrr.org/news/drrday-re…
Read 20 tweets
17 Sep
Only people born *after* 2050 will experience net benefits from climate policy

Costs come soon, benefits much later

Optimal policy still worth having, but shows why climate policy so difficult:

Convincing people to pay, *none of whom will net benefit*

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
Climate policy leads to net-costs until 2080

New paper shows how climate policy costs come soon, whereas benefits mostly accrue much later

In total, the optimal policy is still worth having, but it shows why doing climate policy is so difficult

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
Climate policy only becomes net-benefit after 2080, irrespective of climate costs or climate policy costs doubling or halving (if climate is worse than expected, we'll do more climate policy, hence pay more, hence break-even still in 2080)

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
Read 4 tweets
10 Sep
Let's just remember the numbers — even the extreme 2020 burned area is less than *half* the *average* pre-historic burn
Yes, climate change likely plays a role: 20-25%

But "75% is the way we manage lands and develop our landscape"

Conclusion of a recent expert panel

eenews.net/climatewire/st…
This is the whole point in a new Nature Sustainability paper on California's fire deficit — treat 20% of California or 20m acres of the century of fuel build-up and lack of prescribed fires

nature.com/articles/s4189… Image
Read 4 tweets
27 Aug
Interesting overview of US attitudes to climate

What I find most remarkable is the high level and constancy in replies over 20+ years

Here about 80% believe climate change is at least partly man-made (click to see fewer republicans, more democrats)

rff.org/publications/r… Image
Almost stable 80% of US people believe climate will be problem for US

rff.org/publications/r… Image
Almost stable 60+% of US people believe weather patterns more unstable last 3 years

rff.org/publications/r… Image
Read 4 tweets
22 Aug
Peter Birch Sørensen anmelder min bog negativt i Politiken

Han baserer sig mest på studie, der ekstremt manipulerer data

Urimeligt verden skal spilde mere end $1000 milliarder baseret på alarmistiske gæt, fjernt fra mainstream økonomi

politiken.dk/kultur/boger/b…
Jeg bruger Nobelpristageren William Nordhaus' model for optimal klimapolitik

PBS hævder, at "stigende antal klimaøkonomer" er uenige

Men dette er misvisende — jo, altid nogen uenighed blandt økonomer, men de tre store modeller giver næsten samme resultater (næste tweet) Image
Her er de tre store IAM, som også Obama brugte til at estimere klima-skader, FUND, PAGE og DICE (Nordhaus)

De har meget ens estimater

Jeg bruger den sorte linie

(Og estimaterne burde om noget være *mindre negative* fordi dynamisk mere realistisk)
sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
Read 22 tweets

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