Some suggestions from ministers today that 6% a year higher defence spending will not only bolster the UK’s defence capabilities but also yield much wider economic benefits...1/
...PM suggests new money would “level up our country” and “pioneer new technology”...
..And Defence Sec says it “secures UK jobs and livelihoods", "allows us to invest in our fantastic shipyards and aerospace industry, spreading prosperity to every corner of the UK”...2/
...Is there anything in these claims?
Could extra defence spending mean a bigger economic pie?
Are fears that this new military spending could ultimately crowd out investment in health or social care, as suggested by @PJTheEconomist, misplaced?
Economists who have looked at cross-country comparisons for a positive impact of defence spending on domestic economic growth have generally failed to find one...4/
....One study in 2017 found increased military spending in a country between 1970 and 2014 was actually associated with slower economic growth, especially in more developed countries....5/
Didn’t the US’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency programme productivity-growth enhancing spinout technologies such as the internet & GPS?
...Could this explain the PM's reference to the bonus of “new technology” in his statement?....6/
...And aren’t we getting our own ARPA thanks to Dominic Cummings?
Leave aside the question of whether an ARPA would enable us to pick $trillion bills from the economic sidewalk, the relevant point here is we can surely spend more on research without the “defence” part...7/
...@nesta_uk argues convincingly that a UK ARPA CAN help economic growth and level up the country, but that it’s mission ought to be an objective such as tackling climate change, rather than bolstering national military defence capabilities...8/ media.nesta.org.uk/documents/Inno…
...There may be good reasons for spending more on defence.
But claiming that this spending will help grow the UK economy more than otherwise almost certainly isn't one...
Well, it’s a bond raised to “fund projects to tackle climate change, finance much-needed infrastructure investment, and create green jobs across this country,” says the Treasury…2/
….But hang on, aren’t those the things this government has said it plans to borrow lots of money to spend on anyway? Yes.
So what makes a “green” sovereign bond different from any other regular sovereign bond?...3/
🚨I'm told Ed Humpherson, Director General for Regulation at Office for Statistics Regulation (UK's statistics watchdog), spoke privately yesterday to @uksciencechief and @CMO_England to voice concerns about their presentation of modelling data at last Saturday's press conference
🚨Independent UK statistics watchdog criticises UK government for lack of transparency over publication of coronavirus modelling data, following complaints over charts shown by @CMO_England and @uksciencechief
🚨BREAK: UK Statistics watchdog criticises UK Government for lack of transparency over publication of coronavirus cases data, following complaints over charts shown by @CMO_England and @uksciencechief