THREAD: This yr I got a lot of people asking “How does Silicon Valley see China? How has that changed?”
People are usually looking for a 1-dimensional answer (partner➡️rival!) but SV-🇨🇳 ties are way more tangled up than that.
So I made a chart! (1/x) macropolo.org/how-silicon-va…
People are usually looking for a 1-dimensional answer (partner➡️rival!) but SV-🇨🇳 ties are way more tangled up than that.
So I made a chart! (1/x) macropolo.org/how-silicon-va…
Impt qualifier: this chart is built off my *subjective assessment* of these trends.
That assessment is built on >400 interviews, off-record convos, & projects done w/ Silicon Valley investors, entrepreneurs, researchers, etc.
But it's still *subjective* so take it as such.
That assessment is built on >400 interviews, off-record convos, & projects done w/ Silicon Valley investors, entrepreneurs, researchers, etc.
But it's still *subjective* so take it as such.
I break down the decade into 3 phases:
2010-2013: Retrenchment.
US tech co's blocked, waiting for Chinese internet controls to fail.
2014-2017: Re-engagement.
China's tech scene flourishing, SV wants back in.
2017-2020: Things Get Weird (and dark)
macropolo.org/how-silicon-va…
2010-2013: Retrenchment.
US tech co's blocked, waiting for Chinese internet controls to fail.
2014-2017: Re-engagement.
China's tech scene flourishing, SV wants back in.
2017-2020: Things Get Weird (and dark)
macropolo.org/how-silicon-va…
Let's zoom in on the business dimensions:
"China as market" vs. "Chinese co's as competitor"
These dimensions moved in lockstep 2010-2017 b/c Chinese co's were seen as competitors *only within the Chinese market*
That all changes 2018-2019 w/ global rise of TikTok (+others)
"China as market" vs. "Chinese co's as competitor"
These dimensions moved in lockstep 2010-2017 b/c Chinese co's were seen as competitors *only within the Chinese market*
That all changes 2018-2019 w/ global rise of TikTok (+others)
Now the technological dimensions:
China as copycat vs. warning sign vs. inspiration.
Key turning points:
- rise of WeChat+mobile payments (later TikTok)
- rise of surveillance state + Xinjiang atrocities
- slight bump in copycat/IP thief from Section 301 report + 🇺🇸🇨🇳trade war
China as copycat vs. warning sign vs. inspiration.
Key turning points:
- rise of WeChat+mobile payments (later TikTok)
- rise of surveillance state + Xinjiang atrocities
- slight bump in copycat/IP thief from Section 301 report + 🇺🇸🇨🇳trade war
There are other impt dimensions (🇨🇳 as resource; Chinese co's as state actor) that I don't have here. A chart can only take so many lines!
+ lots more good little Silicon Valley-China sub-plots that this glosses over.
But hopefully it's food for thought:
macropolo.org/how-silicon-va…
+ lots more good little Silicon Valley-China sub-plots that this glosses over.
But hopefully it's food for thought:
macropolo.org/how-silicon-va…
Big thanks to @DanGrover & @ruima for super helpful feedback on the charts. The smart parts come from them and the mistakes are all mine.
Highly recommend following both for insights on tech in both 🇺🇸 & 🇨🇳.
Highly recommend following both for insights on tech in both 🇺🇸 & 🇨🇳.
Finally, a totally shameless plug for my book "The Transpacific Experiment."
If you get a kick out of exploring the impactful + twisty + weird + kinda-fun entanglements between the China and California, I think you'll like reading it: amazon.com/Transpacific-E…
If you get a kick out of exploring the impactful + twisty + weird + kinda-fun entanglements between the China and California, I think you'll like reading it: amazon.com/Transpacific-E…
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