THREAD: This yr I got a lot of people asking “How does Silicon Valley see China? How has that changed?”

People are usually looking for a 1-dimensional answer (partner➡️rival!) but SV-🇨🇳 ties are way more tangled up than that.

So I made a chart! (1/x)…
Impt qualifier: this chart is built off my *subjective assessment* of these trends.

That assessment is built on >400 interviews, off-record convos, & projects done w/ Silicon Valley investors, entrepreneurs, researchers, etc.

But it's still *subjective* so take it as such.
I break down the decade into 3 phases:

2010-2013: Retrenchment.
US tech co's blocked, waiting for Chinese internet controls to fail.

2014-2017: Re-engagement.
China's tech scene flourishing, SV wants back in.

2017-2020: Things Get Weird (and dark)…
Let's zoom in on the business dimensions:
"China as market" vs. "Chinese co's as competitor"

These dimensions moved in lockstep 2010-2017 b/c Chinese co's were seen as competitors *only within the Chinese market*

That all changes 2018-2019 w/ global rise of TikTok (+others)
Now the technological dimensions:
China as copycat vs. warning sign vs. inspiration.

Key turning points:
- rise of WeChat+mobile payments (later TikTok)
- rise of surveillance state + Xinjiang atrocities
- slight bump in copycat/IP thief from Section 301 report + 🇺🇸🇨🇳trade war
There are other impt dimensions (🇨🇳 as resource; Chinese co's as state actor) that I don't have here. A chart can only take so many lines!

+ lots more good little Silicon Valley-China sub-plots that this glosses over.

But hopefully it's food for thought:…
Big thanks to @DanGrover & @ruima for super helpful feedback on the charts. The smart parts come from them and the mistakes are all mine.

Highly recommend following both for insights on tech in both 🇺🇸 & 🇨🇳.
Finally, a totally shameless plug for my book "The Transpacific Experiment."

If you get a kick out of exploring the impactful + twisty + weird + kinda-fun entanglements between the China and California, I think you'll like reading it:…

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More from @mattsheehan88

26 Oct
THREAD: Today our @macropolochina team dropped a new report forecasting Chinese politics, economics, technology & energy 2020-2025.

I took on the task of predicting what will go down in Chinese tech over the next 5 years.

Here’s what I came up with:…
First, a limitation: I didn’t try to cover every tech sector+issue. (Quantum, surveillance, fintech, social credit, etc.) Imagine predicting everything in US tech 2015-2020...

So if I didn’t cover your area, you should write that piece. Send it to me, I’ll read it! (thread 2/x)
I focused on one major trend that I think will deeply shape Chinese tech in 2025, and one potential obstacle.

Trend: A shift from the consumer internet to the industrial internet via New Infrastructure.

Obstacle: Limited Chinese access to advanced semiconductors.

(thread 3/x)
Read 23 tweets
28 Apr
Key dimension of US-China tech competition is currently playing out in countries across the developing world.

So I analyzed data on the most downloaded apps in six key countries for 2015 & 2019. Here’s what I found:

thread 1/
US apps remained dominant in 2019 for most markets, often w/ 60-75% market share among the most downloaded apps.

The one big exception here is India, which we'll dig into below... 2/
But comparing 2015 and 2019, Chinese apps gained significant market share in Indonesia, India, Egypt, Nigeria and Brazil.

Mexico was the only market where Chinese share shrank. 3/
Read 10 tweets
21 Jan
🎙️New episode of Heartland Mainland: the Iowa China Podcast!🎙️

For the past yr, @JianingHollyHe & I have been talking w/ Rick Kimberley: Iowa farmer ➡️ ag celebrity in China ➡️ collateral damage in the trade war.
Here's what we learned. /thread…
@JianingHollyHe We spoke w/ a soybean industry rep who told us they first set up a Beijing office in 1982, betting that Reform + Opening would mean greater demand for animal feed & soybeans.

That big bet on Chinese markets didn't start paying off for 2 decades, until China entered WTO in 2001.
@JianingHollyHe Iowa soybean exports took off, peaking at over $3.5 billion in 2012. That same year Xi Jinping paid a visit to an Iowa farm owned by Rick Kimberley.

Rick is the 5th generation in his family to farm this piece of land, and he was a bit overwhelmed by the fallout from the visit...
Read 9 tweets

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