Just watched this on Streaming. Will watch again tomorrow at 9pm BBC. Very shocking. We have one human Coronavirus expert in the U.K. : Dr David Matthews, Bristol Uni.
He was not invited on any of the Gov advisory committees.
He was not invited on any of the Gov advisory committees.
https://twitter.com/_Lucibee/status/1329415526364360707
When he heard 23/24 Jan that Chinese data suggest the RR was 2.5-3.5 he thought “Oh Shit. This is going to go and go and go... run around the world”
Why was he not invited on the Gov committees early on?
Of many other striking points is the absence of other expertise.
Why was he not invited on the Gov committees early on?
Of many other striking points is the absence of other expertise.
Despite identifying the elderly and care homes as a high risk by 18/3/20 from incoming Chinese data the people on the committees seemed to have no understanding of how Care Homes worked, were staffed, the use of agency staff and the fact that careers have lives in the community
Did they have no GP or district Nurse or elderly care specialists advising?
It was chilling to hear Care homes saying they realised that infection must be being brought in by staff, lobbied for testing but were told by PHE it was unnecessary.
It was chilling to hear Care homes saying they realised that infection must be being brought in by staff, lobbied for testing but were told by PHE it was unnecessary.
It was also VERY shocking that scientists in the committee were largely reliant on data from Wikipedia as they did not have the contacts to get crucial data from China.
What rôle did the WHO play?
What rôle did the WHO play?
I even got the feeling that maybe SOME Scientists in SOME Unis might have got SOME data from China through personal contacts but that it may not have been shared between all on committees.
Did LSTHM get data that Manchester/ Warwick/ Imperial did not?
How can that be OK if so?
Did LSTHM get data that Manchester/ Warwick/ Imperial did not?
How can that be OK if so?
There seemed to have been a great paucity of reliable data in the early months and modellers did not realise for several weeks that the data they were getting was already a week old.
Reporting lag.
Reporting lag.
Other scientists said the quality of PH data he was able to get working in war torn Congo was better than the data he was getting in his return, working in the U.K. on Coronavirus data.
Yet Johnson and Hancock (& Jenny Harries) kept banging on about “world beating”.
Yet Johnson and Hancock (& Jenny Harries) kept banging on about “world beating”.
Some still stick with it but that can only be because they have not conversed sufficiently to ordinary people who DO know how those events go down
The crowds...at the venues and crammed into bars, restaurants, public transport before & after, air B& Bs, aircrafts, trains, buses
The crowds...at the venues and crammed into bars, restaurants, public transport before & after, air B& Bs, aircrafts, trains, buses
Don’t tell me Cummings (actually ON the SAGE committee) did not know about the paucity of data?
Don’t tell me Hancock did not know. And that was because they had starved PH and diagnostic molecular NHS/PHE labs of resources for years. Fairly & squarely their responsibility
Don’t tell me Hancock did not know. And that was because they had starved PH and diagnostic molecular NHS/PHE labs of resources for years. Fairly & squarely their responsibility
There is some sign that at least some of the scientists look back and say they would do things differently, with hindsight.
But I am more than a little surprised that some seem unable to look back and say:
But I am more than a little surprised that some seem unable to look back and say:
“We SHOULD have ramped up testing at airports and ports right from the start. We SHOULD have stemmed ingress until we got our testing and tracing and isolation tackle in order.
Some still say there was little point
Tell that to NZ, China, Oz, S Korea, Kerala, Vietnam, Mongolia
Some still say there was little point
Tell that to NZ, China, Oz, S Korea, Kerala, Vietnam, Mongolia
Also VERY striking that Prof Riley from Imperial had written a report advising early lockdown by 12th March. 11 days before we did.
It took contact with a scientist at Manchester from an Italian colleague to flag that doubling time was probably every three days by 17/3/20
It took contact with a scientist at Manchester from an Italian colleague to flag that doubling time was probably every three days by 17/3/20
That was reported to Prof Graham Pedley on Sage by 18/3, and that the NHS would be saturated within one to two weeks.
I believe Cummings was on that SAGE committee.
I believe Cummings was on that SAGE committee.
As for Johnson & Hancock saying he did not understand the risk of asymptomatic transmission...or indeed PHE, Prof Gabriel Leung from Hong Kong did not only give a lecture at the London School of Tropical Health and Medicine on 27th Feb
He appeared on Newsnight and SAID he had just returned from a WHO meeting and it was this that would make it so dangerous.
I knew. OF COURSE they knew.
lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/eve…
I knew. OF COURSE they knew.
lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/eve…
PHE sponsored that event.
In addition one of our earliest cases ( diagnosis 5/2/20 was an asymptomatic superspreader who was thought to have picked it up at a conference in Singapore at the end of Jan then transmitted on during a ski holiday & returning to the U.K.
In addition one of our earliest cases ( diagnosis 5/2/20 was an asymptomatic superspreader who was thought to have picked it up at a conference in Singapore at the end of Jan then transmitted on during a ski holiday & returning to the U.K.
Contact tracing identified a total of 13 onward infections. He had no idea he was a carrier.
OF COURSE they all knew.
OF COURSE they all knew.
Not sure what happened but it looks as if my thread broke.
Continued here.
Continued here.
https://twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1329572609030295561
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