Bachman Profile picture
20 Nov, 12 tweets, 5 min read
1\ This is the weirdest thread about a lighthouse you will ever read

12 miles off the English coast are the dangerous Eddystone Rocks, which so terrified mariners that they preferred to risk shipwreck by hugging the French coast Image
2\ The first person to attempt a lighthouse on the Rocks was Henry Winstanley in 1969. But England was at war with France, and a French privateer took Henry prisoner and destroyed the works

Louis XIV set Henry free, saying "France is at war with England, not with humanity" Image
3\ Henry finished the wooden lighthouse but had the bad judgment to be making additions to it with five other men when the Great Storm of 1703 hit. He and his men were never seen again

The Great Storm killed over 1,000 seaman and toppled many more chimneys Image
4\ Next up was Captain John Lovett, who undertook to build a replacement lighthouse

Echoing the plot of the Three Little Pigs, Lovett abandoned the earlier all-wood design for one incorporating brick Image
5\ One of the light keepers was a 94 year old named Henry Hall (probably out there hiding from Coronavirus)

And here's where the story gets WEIRD

In 1755 the structure caught fire, and Hall somehow, um, ingested molten lead

Obviously we need to detour to explore Hall's story Image
6\ While the 94 year old was throwing buckets of water at the structure fire, he had the misfortune to look up with his mouth open at the exact moment that a torrent of molten lead fell from the roof

It went down his throat! Image
7\ The lighthouse burned down, but a passing boat saw Hall and his men on the rocks. They dragged 94 year old Hall through the surf with a rope Image
8\ Back ashore, Hall's story was discounted by doctors as the rantings of an old man. But when he died shortly thereafter, the autopsy found congealed lead in his stomach

The ingot now lives at the National Museum of Scotland Image
9\ But because this was Enlightenment Era England, our story doesn't end there

To prove that you could live after drinking molten lead, The Royalty Society undertook a series of experiments wherein they force fed molten lead to animals, killing them Image
10\ A series of other lighthouses followed on Eddystone Rocks

But so profitable was the private lighthouse industry that in 1834 Parliament nationalized it

Economics students ever since have, bizarrely, been taught that governments must build lighthouses because markets won't Image
11\ In 1982 the current lighthouse on Eddystone Rocks was automated, which seems a good end for our story Image
12\12 You can read a delightful short history of the early UK lighthouse industry here:

static.stevereads.com/papers_to_read…

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More from @ElonBachman

22 Nov
1\ This is a thread about how the structure of Sweden's political institutions allowed it to have the best COVID-19 policy in the world

I think it will be of interest to @GarettJones, who managed to be wrong about the facts in Sweden, despite getting the principles right
2\ Garett's scholarship (summarized in "10% Less Democracy") persuasively argues that outcomes of all sorts are improved when governments are a little less responsive to the political process, and a little more responsive to insulated technocrats Image
3\ Garett's prior is that Sweden had bad COVID-19 outcomes. He's wrong about this (for reasons that would require another thread to explain), but the assumption seems to have made him see Sweden as a nail in need of his "less democracy" hammer

But this is precisely backwards!
Read 7 tweets
23 Oct
1\ There's a sort of "science homily" about limes and scurvy:

That Lind did a randomized control trial with limes, completely eradicated scurvy, and then was ignored by the scientific establishment because they were all idiots

I was surprised to learn this ain't so...
2\ The proceedings from the Royal Society of London make it clear that the scientific establishment was, well, scientific. It's just that the data was confusing!

First, the proposed mechanisms of action didn't make sense: Image
3\ Second, there were cases where scurvy happened despite lime juice, as well as cases where scurvy was avoided despite a diet of only meat: Image
Read 5 tweets
23 Oct
1\ Many of my conservative friends part ways with me when it comes to immigration

They believe in free association but see problems when it comes to free movement of people across borders

What about crime? Welfare? Voting?

There's a comic book that addresses these concerns!
2\ My notes from the book:
3\ I'd like to see @bryan_caplan address the criticism that some of his rebuttals ("Immigrants aren't that socialist!", "They don't commit much crime!") are plausibly true only *because* of immigration restrictions

Would those rebuttals hold with fully open borders?
Read 4 tweets
22 Oct
1\ Has anyone seen data that compares guilds who ration supply through cap and trade (NYC taxis, floor brokers) to guilds that ration supply through arbitrary certification (doctors, lawyers, teachers, London taxis)?
2\ To keep supply below demand, certification must be stultifying; it must include material irrelevant to the job. Hence the legions of dimwit teachers and doctors

I would think cap and trade gets closer to efficient Coasian outcomes

But I don't know how to test the theory
3\ Though the comparison between NYC and London taxis suggests a direction for inquiry. Are credentialed taxis more expensive than taxis that just have to buy a license and pass a minimal geography test?
Read 4 tweets
19 Oct
1\ Just took three flights and passed through four airports, three of which are among the world's very busiest.

I was surprised by airport mask culture.

A thread...
2\ Entered first airport wearing mask. 99.5% of people masked. I immediately slipped mine down below my nose.

At check-in I took it all the way down. No comment from friendly check-in lady

Thought for sure security would scold me
3\ Nope. ID checker guy didn't care. Guys yelling about shoes and laptops didn't care.

MRI scanner guy pantomimed for me to mask up in the scanner, so I did, then immediately took it off.

No weird looks last the gate.

Thought for sure gate people would hang me...
Read 8 tweets
25 Sep
1\ I'm glad Colm is speaking out about lockdowns, but I'd like to make a somewhat pedantic point about civil liberties

The problem is that different people realize lockdowns are terrible at different times

For Colm, it's obvious today, in September...
2\ But for those looking at the age stratification of IFR in Wuhan in Jan/Feb, it was obvious *then* that lockdowns were a bad idea

By March, Korean data made it *absolutely* clear that the young were not at risk
3\ So, the point at which you realized lockdowns were absurd depended on how close you were to the data

Which means we have a game of "least common denominator"

The world is held hostage until the most dim-witted apparatchik realizes COVID-19 is just a bad flu
Read 5 tweets

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