Six risks for American democracy from the transition crisis.

A short thread summarizing my Harvard talk yesterday.

Video of the CES panel will be available soon from:

Download all pp slides from my talk @:
2/10 Theory
3/10 Assessing the severity of risks from the transition crisis
8/ 10
9/10 Finally...
10/10 Download the talk's full pp with some evidence assessing the risks. Work in progress...Comments welcome!


More to come in my PSA lecture on Tuesday...register here:

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More from @PippaN15

20 Sep
1/ Will disputes over Nov 3rd divide America further?

A short thread summarizing what we know from research about risks of contentious elections, drawn from our 2015 Routledge book:
2/ 'Contentious elections’ are defined as contests involving major challenges, with different degrees of severity, to the legitimacy of electoral actors, procedures, or outcomes.

Here's the model we used to identify successive steps in the process...
3/ Evidence is needed to diagnose underlying symptoms...
Read 10 tweets
5 Aug
1/ Is there a cancel culture in political science? A short thread summarizing key results from a new research paper...More at dropbox.com/s/y5a0bwu82to2… Image
2/ Academics in political science skew moderate left - especially in America. Confirms long-standing body of research since Lazarsfeld (1958). But the imbalance doesn't necessarily mean growing intolerance of dissent and contrarian voices. Image
3/ So a new global survey asked political scientists whether, in their experience, several aspects had got better or worse. Here's one indicator...'respect for open debate', with the results among all political scientists. No evidence of a substantial problem, it appears. Image
Read 8 tweets
18 Jul
1/ Who's switched in the US electorate since 2016? Short thread.

Here's the change in @YouGov polls.

Biggest social group shifts? Hispanics fall (-8).

Trump consolidates GOP base (84>91%).

Good news for Trump?

But Trump's support among Independents falls 4%...
2/ And compared with 2016, Biden broadens the Dem coalition by picking up Independents (+8) and Moderates (+6)...
3/ Compositional effects are critical (based on actual vote in 2016 and registered voters July 2020).

% of GOP in electorate shrinks (-6%)

And % of Conservatives also falls (-6%), as more Americans see themselves as liberal (+7).

(COVID-19 effect or Trump effects or both?)
Read 5 tweets
30 Mar
A new research paper on European values with some more background on the Hungarian developments in comparative perspective:

1. The tipping point in Hungary has been reached after a long slide.
2. But it would be misleading to read Hungarian public opinion directly from the actions of the Orban regime.
3. Long-term trends in Hungarian public support for democratic values does not fall.
Read 4 tweets
23 Feb
1/ Are there varieties of populists in America?
/2 Definitiopn of Populism
3/Varieties worldwide use populist language but differ in their values
Read 14 tweets
1 Sep 19
The Brexit perfect storm or the triple crisis facing the UK.
The first is a cultural crisis symbolized over Brexit. This is not just a deep policy divide, evident for decades, but a fundamental choice about British identity. People are being towards Europe or America, with longstanding bonds to both.
The second is a constitutional crisis: the unwritten norms about the primacy of parliament are being torn up, even if legal nicities are observed. The weaknesses of our unwritten conventions are revealed under pressure.
Read 7 tweets

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