After their disastrous forecast for 26 Oct, MRC doubled down. On 3 Nov (just before lockdown), their mid-point prediction was for 545 deaths on 14 Nov, with a range of 380 to 710.
Deaths for the 14th should be fairly complete now and the total for the 14th is 336. The 7-day average is a bit higher (346), but still well short even of the MRC's lower bound estimate.
As I said last time, forecasting is difficult. But this was made just 11 days out so based largely on infections already occurred & tests already completed. Further, forecast range was very wide whilst MRC use the broadest "within 60 days of a positive test" deaths definition.
The NI Executive decision to lockdown again next week is just astounding.
These sort of draconian measures, causing economic & social devastation as they do, should only be considered when there is an urgent crisis and there is absolutely no alternative. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe…
According to the ONS infections in NI are coming down rapidly: 34% drop since late October.
That is consistent with the NI positive test data. The numbers had flattened around 8th Nov, but coming down steadily again now (ignore the last few days as these will be updated):
Covid-19 hospital admissions also coming down steadily in NI since end October (again ignore last few days).
Hospitalisations peaked on 4th Nov. Positive tests started decreasing on 2nd Nov.
The test graph shows the 7-day incidence rate. Not sure if that is by result or test date but even if the latter, still far too early for the 30th Oct lockdown to be the cause.
And here is France's estimated R-number, falling steadily from 24th October with no indication that the 30th October lockdown had any effect on the trend at all.
There seems to be a systematic pattern to how the Government presents forecasts/predictions/scenarios to justify more restrictions & lockdowns.
It’s important they are held up to scrutiny after the event.
On 16 Oct, @BorisJohnson justified forcing Tier 3 restrictions onto Greater Manchester because “On recent trends in just over two weeks there will be more Covid patients in intensive care than at the peak of the 1st wave”. mirror.co.uk/news/politics/…
At the peak, NHS report GM Trusts had 171 patients in mechanically ventilated beds (their best measure of ICU numbers).
As of 3 Nov (2.5 weeks after the PM's statement but too early for any Tier 3 effect) MV patients have increased but to 96, still just 56% of the April peak.