But Michigan as a whole cast 115% of its 2016 vote or so, and it's not like Clinton's raw margin in Detroit was anything spectacular, Democrats fretted about it for four years!
My sanity check is, "imagine if these Philadelphia/Detroit/Milwaukee numbers were the first things out on Tuesday November 3rd". I don't think Democrats would have had a happy time waiting for more results...
I mean if you say Biden ran a point behind Clinton, and that relative turnout was down, what are we arguing about?
I don't actually know if I think Clinton's Detroit numbers were that bad, accounting for relative population change and "not being the first Black President"...and GOP's victory lap over maybe not quite getting crushed with Black voters quite as badly as usual is perhaps silly...
And yeah relative population changes and/or temporary COVID effects do make comparisons difficult. But I can't really think of any swing maps or anything where Biden seemed to be doing that well in Black neighborhoods, you know, for a Presidential Democrat in a high-turnout year.
Let's see, I had this chart laying around, looks like Biden's Detroit margin as a percentage of the statewide vote will be about 4.1%...about flat with 2018? Which wouldn't be great for a Presidential year actually. Let me see if I have the raw numbers somewhere.
(So I am not cherry-picking a metric! This is the metric I thought in terms of beforehand!)
Yeah given Biden's primary vote, his success in Delaware politics, Harris on the ticket, and the sheer amount of Takes about "how Clinton blew it in Milwaukee last time", etc.

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More from @xenocryptsite

20 Nov
Conceptually it's a little tricky b/c of superspreader events. Let's say there's a basement party or something and 200 people get infected. Then each of them infect 4 new people at work. 1000 people are infected now, how many "because of work", how many "because of the party"?
Well most directly, 800 people were infected at work, 200 people were infected at the party. That makes it seem like work is the main factor. But in another sense, without the party, maybe nobody gets infected, so maybe the social event is the main factor.
And then it's like, what kind of transmission is it easier for policy changes, behavioral changes, etc, to stop, and that's a whole different tricky conversation.
Read 5 tweets
20 Nov
Yeah there was some "consider the particularities of the Texas Hispanic population" article some people told me to read, it looked interesting but I think we need to admit this is what happened.
(I should read it though, it did look interesting, but I was like, what about Maricopa County, Chicago, Lawrence Massachusetts, Bridgeport, the Bronx, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, almost everywhere you can see a big red splotch on the precinct swing map or whatever.)
You are right that just because there was a general pattern doesn't mean there weren't interesting shifts within that pattern.
Read 5 tweets
20 Nov
Via @ElectProject estimates, boy, relative turnout by state is really pretty stable, huh.
Here's just the last two:
The earliest on @ElectProject is 2000, let's see there. Well, you can definitely see that some states were the belles of the ball in 2020 more than in 2000, perhaps.
Read 5 tweets
20 Nov
How many times is this goddamn pity party take going to go around you goddamn people? Well, to quote a fine cinematic depiction of a gifted child:
Is the idea that people whose abilities were denigrated as children are better off now than "gifted children"? Do you...believe that?
Yeah I mean everyone's got their strengths and weaknesses and things they should have worked on but like jesus christ, IDK, get some perspective.
Read 7 tweets
20 Nov
I really hope we don't let these people live this down.
Yes spin is a part of any politician's job, and yes your favorite politicians have also done some disingenuous spin. Still.
It's just really crossing a line to say "isn't it a little suspicious that we won last time but lost this time". Can't live that down.
Read 4 tweets
20 Nov
There are indeed plusses and minuses to the US vote-counting system, I said that before all this. Doesn't mean it's the optimum though.
Also we should probably wait and see how this all plays out before the victory lap.
Yeah that does sound nice. I'd be interested in seeing comparisons by country.
Read 7 tweets

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