Florida Deaths - 11/20/20

Florida reported 79 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 23 different days, going back to August 14.

Changes by month: August (+1), September (+2), October (+3), November (+73)

#RationalGround

1/6 Image
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

2/6 Image
Yesterday's deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 80
Minimum age: 44
Maximum age: 99
95% are 65 or older

3/6 Image
Additions by date:

11/19 - 6
11/18 - 1
11/17 - 7
11/16 - 5
11/15 - 4
11/14 - 9
11/13 - 9
11/12 - 1
11/11 - 6
11/10 - 8
11/9 - 2
11/8 - 3
11/7 - 1
11/6 - 4
11/5 - 1
11/4 - 2
11/3 - 2
11/2 - 2
10/29 - 1
10/24 - 2
9/19 - 1
9/6 - 1
8/14 - 1

4/6 Image
The numbers above are not totals by day; they're increments added today. See the chart in the first tweet for totals.

Deaths by week:

5/6 Image
Sources: Florida deaths by day: fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/home/item.html…

My spreadsheet to track changes: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

6/6

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More from @jhaskinscabrera

21 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/21/20

Florida reported a net of 41 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 33 different days, going back to July 28.

Changes by month: July (+2), August (+1), September (+3-2), October (+7-3), November (+34-1)

#RationalGround

1/7 Image
The "net" is the difference between today's total deaths and yesterday's total deaths, but each day's total is also the sum of additions and removals on that date.

For example, if 2 new deaths are reported on a date, that could be because 3 were added and 1 was removed

2/7
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
19 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/19/20

Florida reported a net of 79 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 34 different days, going back to July 12.

Changes by month: July (+2), August (+4), September (+9), October (+9-2), November (+58-1)

#RationalGround

1/7
The "net" is the difference between today's total deaths and yesterday's total deaths, but each day's total is also the sum of additions and removals on that date.

For example, if 2 new deaths are reported on a date, that could be because 3 were added and 1 was removed

2/7
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

3/7
Read 7 tweets
18 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/18/20

Florida reported a net of 87 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 45 different days, going back to July 25.

Changes by month: July (+2), August (+11-1), September (+6), October (+16), November (+53)

#RationalGround

1/8
The "net" is the difference between today's total deaths and yesterday's total deaths, but each day's total is also the sum of additions and removals on that date.

For example, if 2 new deaths are reported on a date, that could be because 3 were added and 1 was removed

2/8
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

3/8
Read 8 tweets
17 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/17/20

Florida reported 85 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 24 different days, going back to July 20.

Changes by month: July (+1), October (+10), November (+74)

#RationalGround

1/8
This chart shows more detail for recent weeks:

2/8
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

3/8
Read 8 tweets
16 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/16/20

Florida reported 41 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 19 different days, going back to October 16.

Changes by month: October (+24), November (+17)

#RationalGround

1/8
This chart shows more detail for recent weeks:

2/8
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (225).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

3/8
Read 8 tweets
15 Nov
I don't expect Florida's COVID deaths to trend toward zero any time soon; we will probably see at least 40-50/day (similar to a normal FL flu season).

When every person in LTC is tested every 2 weeks, the probability of getting a false positive increases with time.

1/4
As the months go on and the number of tests increases, that probability gets VERY high, and it only takes one positive.

It's clear from reviewing death certificates that any previous positive test goes on the cert, and those are counted as COVID deaths.

2/4
Examples from Florida:

- 57M, PART 1: a. Coronary artery disease, PART 2: asymptomatic COVID-19 positive swab

- 92F, PART 1: a. Sequelae of femoral neck fracture b. Blunt impact to extremity, PART 2: Asymptomatic COVID-19 infection, hypertensive heart disease

3/4
Read 4 tweets

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