I don't expect Florida's COVID deaths to trend toward zero any time soon; we will probably see at least 40-50/day (similar to a normal FL flu season).
When every person in LTC is tested every 2 weeks, the probability of getting a false positive increases with time.
1/4
When every person in LTC is tested every 2 weeks, the probability of getting a false positive increases with time.
1/4
As the months go on and the number of tests increases, that probability gets VERY high, and it only takes one positive.
It's clear from reviewing death certificates that any previous positive test goes on the cert, and those are counted as COVID deaths.
2/4
It's clear from reviewing death certificates that any previous positive test goes on the cert, and those are counted as COVID deaths.
2/4
Examples from Florida:
- 57M, PART 1: a. Coronary artery disease, PART 2: asymptomatic COVID-19 positive swab
- 92F, PART 1: a. Sequelae of femoral neck fracture b. Blunt impact to extremity, PART 2: Asymptomatic COVID-19 infection, hypertensive heart disease
3/4
- 57M, PART 1: a. Coronary artery disease, PART 2: asymptomatic COVID-19 positive swab
- 92F, PART 1: a. Sequelae of femoral neck fracture b. Blunt impact to extremity, PART 2: Asymptomatic COVID-19 infection, hypertensive heart disease
3/4
- 90F, PART 1: a. Cerebrovascular accident b. Atrial fibrillation, PART 2: COVID (6/2020)
In 2019, FL averaged 575 deaths/day (all cause). If only 10% of these people get a positive test at some point, that will be 50+ COVID deaths per day.
4/4
In 2019, FL averaged 575 deaths/day (all cause). If only 10% of these people get a positive test at some point, that will be 50+ COVID deaths per day.
4/4
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
