Jawad Mian Profile picture
21 Nov, 13 tweets, 2 min read
1) In a distant Indian village, a seer brings an elephant under the cover of the night.

He keeps it hidden in a dark tent and invites the local villagers to come take a look.
2) As seeing in the darkness was impossible, no one could tell what it was. Each person touches the creature with his hand to get an idea.
3) The first person felt the trunk, and perceived it as a water pipe.

“Oh, no! It’s a rope,” argued the second after touching the tail.
4) The hand of the third touched its ear, which was moving back and forth. He claimed it was a large fan.

The fourth person touched its leg. He thought, “I find it still and sturdy, like a pillar.”
5) The last person, the cleverest of the lot, stretched out his hand and held the elephant’s tusk.

“You’re all wrong!” he said. “This is a rounded sword made of porcelain.” He was proud of his description.
6) As each person found fault with the next, they began to quarrel.
7) The seer breaks up the fight, “Each one of you grasped some aspect of the creature, but none was able to describe it as it really was. If you put your partial views together, the truth will reveal itself.”
8) This parable calls attention to a lack of objectivity and consideration of other approaches and perspectives when trying to understand the nature of things.
9) There are limits to individual perception and our biases can blind us, preventing us from seeing things as they are.
10) In order to obtain a more complete investment perspective, closely study the interaction between stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities.
11) It's hard to tell what the market is going to do by looking at just one group.

They are all linked and impact one another because they are all manifestations of the business cycle.
12) In the dark world of global macro, intermarket analysis helps incorporate the influence of each asset class to forecast macro trends.
13) The successful investor knows the relation between the different parts of the market and has acquired an ability to see the whole picture.

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More from @jsmian

21 Nov
Before we got married, my wife complained that I write for everyone except her. 🤦🏽‍♂️

So I decided that each year, on our wedding anniversary, I’ll gift a new chapter to her in a lifelong book.

Now I’m writing chapter eight. ❤️ Image
1) Funny story about the book.

Worked like a charm for our first anniversary. My wife loved the whole concept.
2) My smart ass idea was now I can just gift her a new chapter each year.

No more hassle of thinking about what to get for our anniversary.

This was the gift that keeps on giving.
Read 10 tweets
25 Oct
The biggest misconception about the 2020 election is that it's a referendum on Trump and his Covid response.

Nothing could be farther from the truth. Worth sharing feedback from conversations I've had all summer.

I break it down into five cohorts. 👇
1) Denial: Those who think America does not have a racism problem, but rather a black community problem.

"I should not stick my nose in things I don’t know."
2) Those who sympathize with BLM but see the protests as the problem. They have been hurt by the looting.

So now they want “law and order” even though they were rooting for Biden before. Another related group sees BLM as marxist anarchists.
Read 7 tweets
25 Oct
1) Race has always been the central dividing line in American politics.

It would be a mistake to underestimate Trump and the power of white hype as an electoral strategy.

THREAD 3/3 👇
2) After signing the Civil Rights Act into law on July 2, 1964, President Lyndon Johnson said to his press aide, Bill Moyers:

“I think we just delivered the South to the Republican Party for a long time to come.”
3) He was right. Johnson was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win a majority of white votes, not only in the South but nationwide.

Whites have slowly but consistently moved away from the Democratic Party.
Read 29 tweets
24 Oct
1) Few Americans truly understand the racial schism separating white and black citizens.

Let us consider America's biography.

THREAD 2/3 👇
2) The Reconstruction Act of 1867 granted voting rights to African Americans following the Civil War.

Newly enfranchised blacks gained a political voice for the first time in US history, winning election to southern state legislatures and even to Congress.
3) Then came the Compromise of 1877, an agreement brokered by Congress and the Supreme Court to settle the result of the disputed 1876 election.
Read 25 tweets
17 Oct
1) I haven’t been satisfied with the coverage of renewed race tensions in America. So, I decided to take it on.

I’m surprised more people aren’t looking in and connecting the dots between historical facts. There are obvious clues for America’s future history.

2) In July 1967, President Lyndon Johnson established the Kerner Commission to study the surge of Black urban uprisings.
3) Until the early 1960s, race riots were ubiquitously white terror campaigns against Black people, which never led to any comparable study.

The investigation was to understand the Black people’s problem.
Read 38 tweets
15 Oct
1) The world is clearing its karmic debt.

How else can we explain these monumental and globally felt shifts?
2) People in the public eye or a position of power are being held to account.

Karma topples hubris.
3) Harvey Weinstein sentenced to 23 years in prison, taken down by the #MeToo movement; repeated sex-offender Jeffrey Epstein arrested and died in jail last year; and Hollywood celebrities caught in the College Admissions Scandal.
Read 11 tweets

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