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21 Nov, 4 tweets, 3 min read
Why do we donate so much time+money inefficiently?

We care about effectiveness when giving to ourselves or our family

When giving to strangers, we care about what *others* think about us (they don't evaluate us on effectiveness)

nature.com/articles/s4156…
If our giving is multiplied 10x by, say, Gates, we should give more (because your dollar will mean $10 to the good cause)

But we don't give more to charity

If Gates multiplied a giving to ourselves, we *do* give more

nature.com/articles/s4156…
Getting us to give effectively is just very, very hard.

We mostly give in ways that are "reputationally lucrative" — ways that make us look good among our peers

nature.com/articles/s4156…
Copenhagen Consensus works with 100s of the world's top economists to find where extra money can do most good

Here is our latest global project: longer lines means more effective giving

copenhagenconsensus.com/sites/default/…

Video:
Pod: freakonomics.com/podcast/fixing…

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More from @BjornLomborg

Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
18 Nov
Great we're again discussing the real and manmade problem of climate

But let's get the facts straight

Hurricanes are not increasing in frequency

The best way to help Central America is not climate policy but helping them out of poverty

journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/9…
Best long-term data is US landfalling hurricanes, because reliably recorded since 1900

Frequency of all hurricanes *not* increasing

Frequency of strongest hurricanes (Cat3+) *not* increasing

journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/9…
Just using data across entire Atlantic has two problems:

1) Earlier years, especially after opening of Panama Canal, many storms missed

Here observations of the two strongest hurricane years 1933 and 2005

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.102…
Read 15 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
18 Nov
Great we're again discussing the real and manmade problem of climate

But let's get the facts straight

Hurricanes are not increasing in frequency

The best way to help Central America is not climate policy but lifting them out of poverty

journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/9…
Best long-term data is US landfalling hurricanes, because reliably recorded since 1900

Frequency of all hurricanes *not* increasing

Frequency of strongest hurricanes (Cat3+) *not* increasing

journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/9…
Just using storm frequency across entire Atlantic has two problems:

1) Earlier years, especially after opening of Panama Canal, many storms missed

Here observations of the two strongest hurricane years 1933 and 2005

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.102…
Read 15 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
14 Oct
New UN report claims climate-related disasters have doubled

The report is incompetent and wrong on pretty much all accounts

The report should be withdrawn

Thread

Report here: undrr.org/news/drrday-re…
Data here: public.emdat.be
New UN report claims climate-related disasters doubled

Yet, even the report's own data shows the number of climate-related dead has *halved*

Report here: undrr.org/news/drrday-re…
Data here: public.emdat.be
Death data is relatively robust

Instead, almost all non-death data is much better reported towards the present. That is the main reason the UN finds an increase in numbers.

Yet, they simply wave it away

Report here: undrr.org/news/drrday-re…
Read 20 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
17 Sep
Only people born *after* 2050 will experience net benefits from climate policy

Costs come soon, benefits much later

Optimal policy still worth having, but shows why climate policy so difficult:

Convincing people to pay, *none of whom will net benefit*

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
Climate policy leads to net-costs until 2080

New paper shows how climate policy costs come soon, whereas benefits mostly accrue much later

In total, the optimal policy is still worth having, but it shows why doing climate policy is so difficult

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
Climate policy only becomes net-benefit after 2080, irrespective of climate costs or climate policy costs doubling or halving (if climate is worse than expected, we'll do more climate policy, hence pay more, hence break-even still in 2080)

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
Read 4 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
10 Sep
Let's just remember the numbers — even the extreme 2020 burned area is less than *half* the *average* pre-historic burn
Yes, climate change likely plays a role: 20-25%

But "75% is the way we manage lands and develop our landscape"

Conclusion of a recent expert panel

eenews.net/climatewire/st…
This is the whole point in a new Nature Sustainability paper on California's fire deficit — treat 20% of California or 20m acres of the century of fuel build-up and lack of prescribed fires

nature.com/articles/s4189… Image
Read 4 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
27 Aug
Interesting overview of US attitudes to climate

What I find most remarkable is the high level and constancy in replies over 20+ years

Here about 80% believe climate change is at least partly man-made (click to see fewer republicans, more democrats)

rff.org/publications/r… Image
Almost stable 80% of US people believe climate will be problem for US

rff.org/publications/r… Image
Almost stable 60+% of US people believe weather patterns more unstable last 3 years

rff.org/publications/r… Image
Read 4 tweets

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