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21 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
We’ve moved to winecon 1- one step below global thermonuclear war. Not pictured: magnum of ‘07 Beaucastel CNDP. Image
Is six bottles enough for three people? I hope so!
One down, four to go! ImageImage
In lieu of turkey, iberico secreto! ImageImageImageImage

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More from @quantian1

Quantian Profile picture
20 Nov
It's been a while since I've done one of these, but on paper many of you are following me (why?) because of quant finance tweets, so let me do a rambling stream-of-consciousness apologia for the most hated "model" in finance, the Black-Scholes model.
Specifically, the idea of IV. Like "imaginary numbers", it's an unfortunate misnomer, because it makes people think there must be *some* link between IV and historical vol. This is not the case. A better term might be something like "σ-price" vs. "$-price": it's a price.
Option prices trend in predictable ways: a near-term option will always be cheaper than a long-term one, simply because the long-term one includes the near term one. Similarly, ITM options are always more expensive than OTM options, because they contain the OTM option as well.
Read 24 tweets
Quantian Profile picture
8 Nov
1. Quick THREAD on using the Kelly fraction to optimally size positions in your portfolio, just like Ed Thorpe did in the 1970's (1/N):
Don't do it, you colossal idiot. It's not the 1970's, and you're not Ed Thorpe. (N/N)
Since this joke got popular, the actual explanation: The style of trades Thorp specialized in, convert arbs, have an ex-ante quantifiable E[R] that is reasonably accurate, which means your Kelly estimates are ~ right. Other asset classes and strategies do not have this property.
Read 5 tweets
Quantian Profile picture
19 Oct
GE was, without a doubt, the greatest single-name equity short of all time. A chronically mismanaged serial earnings manipulator with unlimited GC borrow, liquid entry/exit, zero squeeze or takeout risk, and 20+ years of 14% annualized underperformance w/o drawups? Incredible.
"Wow thanks for the idea to short a massive, inefficient conglomerate with cheap borrow, artificially smoothed numbers, and a halo effect from a famous CEO completely unjustified by recent performance 20 years too late Q, there's no way we can replicate that trade again"
🎶One of these things is not like the others/One of these things just doesn't belong/an you tell which thing is not like the others/By the time I finish my song?🎶
Read 4 tweets
Quantian Profile picture
29 Aug
As a eminent Man Of The People, I am enjoying a fine draught of the working man’s drink, “beer”, as I do regularly. Will report further as events develop. Image
This tastes like a spoiled bottle of Chateau Musar 1997- I mean, I am of course enjoying this “barrel-aged sour with spices”?
I have beat a strategic retreat back to the arms of 2006 Dönnhoff Oberhäuser Brücke Riesling Auslese as my aperitif, pairing, and dessert wine all in one. Image
Read 4 tweets
Quantian Profile picture
8 Aug
In a desperate, sad attempt to recapture even a moment of normalcy, I have acquired good takeout sushi and will be serving omakase to myself, and then posting it here.

We’ll start with a 2008 base Egly-Ouriet Blanc de Noirs Grand Cru. Easily my fave champagne to decant. Image
Ahhhh, how long it’s been, I don’t even remember half these names; gone like tears in the rain. First is... Red snapper? Then sea bream and something else I can’t identify. Then a mix of yellowtail and yellowtail belly, and then two sea trouts (my favorite) ImageImageImageImage
Tuna and ikura, and then a break from the monotonous, inevitable march towards entropy that is life: the salmon belly required “cooking” via torch. I must oblige, even if ultimately futile. ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Quantian Profile picture
23 Jun
It’s important to state for the record that I’m not cancelling Scott Alexander for some rambling 25,000 word antifeminist blog nobody read, I’m cancelling him because he’s a neural free energy crank like half the “cognitive science” quacks on here.
iN FrIsTonIAn TeRMs, ImageImage
To be clear: huge swaths of cognitive science are worthless for the exact reason huge swaths of econ and quant bio are: unfalsifiable "theories" are constructed by cribbing cool-sounding concepts from physics and then cherrypicking data to "validate" them.
Read 4 tweets

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