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Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
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21 Nov, 7 tweets, 3 min read
🦠 19,875 new cases. There does seem to be a downward average trend but this hides regional variations where previously low regions now rising.

⚰️⚰️. 341 (28 day cut off) deaths. Lower than this day last week. Total 2861 deaths in the last 7 days. 408 avg each day
🏥 admissions. A word of caution. When I look back a week admission turn out to have been markedly higher than reported at the time.

For instance 1936 NOW recorded as being admitted on Wed 11th. Best estimate on that day was over 1600.

Similarly on Thursday 12th :1886
For that reason take the 1682 admissions on the most recent supposedly complete day on 17/11/20 - Tuesday with a pinch of sale.

That is still a huge number of patients to be admitting every single day ON TOP of ordinary workload.
🛌 IN HOSPITAL
Similar word of caution
It looks as if there is likely to be a lag & catch up.

On the best current data up to yesterday there were 15,698 people in hospital PLUS NI that has not reported, definitely over 16k

16,444 on Wednesday.

Regional patterns are changing
*pinch of salt* in tweet 3. Sorry!
Here is @JoePajak summary.

I agree with him. Everything is delicately poised. And I think the averages both U.K. wide and within England seems to be disguising shifting patterns of infection.

Falling in hitherto high regions with extended restriction.

Rising in others
It looks as if @gordonrlove1 is having the same thoughts.

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Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
23 Nov
Bizarre. The U.K. group is about 1/3rd the size of the Brazil group.

But how do you reconcile such different results where the markedly larger group with the larger dose was markedly less effective than the smaller group and smaller first dose?
The whole study size was about 20k according to this BBC story...so the 11,636 were injected with the vaccine?

bbc.co.uk/news/health-55…
Some thoughts here from a virologist. As @ur_friend_papu suggests, maybe anti-vector response.

Also - how long does protection last...all vaccines
Are some better at preventing transmission rather than level of severity than others?
Read 10 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
22 Nov
2016: Aggressive' Priti Patel 'threw briefing folder at official's face and it hit him' | Daily Mail Online

That is a criminal offence of assault. The now Home Sec

2015: a £25k pay out relating to her conduct to a member of staff.

It continues:
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8…
Miss Patel has also been accused of bullying her private secretary during her time as International Development Secretary. A senior official at Dfid has claimed there was a 'tsunami' of allegations of abuse by officials in her private office.
One former senior figure in the department told the Mail yesterday that she had 'harassed' her private secretary to the point where he was eventually signed off sick with a stress-related condition and asked for a transfer to another department.
Read 11 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
22 Nov
Yesterday it seems they under-reported deaths to the tune of 141 deaths.

⚰️⚰️⚰️ So, instead of the 341 (28 day) deaths they did report there were 482 deaths.

Those deaths have been added to today’s total, resulting in a Sunday, normally low due to reporting lag being 389. Image
That means there were 3091 (28 day cut off) deaths reported in the last 7 days.

⚰️⚰️⚰️ 441 every single day on average

That is an increase on a week ago when it was 411 deaths every day on average.
🦠 18,622 positives but no information about how many tests processed. Generally less over the weekend.

🏥 Admissions - last complete day was Wed 18th Nov - 1746

In a single day. Day after day.

🛌 16,390 on Thursday - the last complete day. ON TOP of routine NHS work. ImageImage
Read 10 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
21 Nov
Officials ‘blocked access to witness’ in Priti Patel inquiry | Politics | The Guardian

Well well.

Sir Alex Allan sought to interview the former top Home Office official, Sir Philip Rutnam about his dealings with Patel, but was blocked by gov officials. theguardian.com/politics/2020/…
Extraordinary.

It wasn’t that Sir Alex chose not to speak to Rutnam.

He was denied access to a key witness.

“Allan bent over backwards to be as fair as possible to (Patel) but the weight of evidence was such that he still came to the conclusion that Patel had bullied staff,” Image
1/. Sir Alex was put “under a lot of pressure”

2/. Johnson has been sitting on this review since April. 7 whole months.

He is so WEAK. Without principle. And beholden to Patel for keeping him out of her Israeli Gov betrayal in 2017. Image
Read 5 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
21 Nov
New Zealand covid-19 flight outbreak linked to passenger who tested negative - The Washington Post

1 infected person despite pre flight negative within 48 hours of flight.

18 hour flight.

7 more people infected.

The precision of this study is brilliant washingtonpost.com/travel/2020/11…
The 14 day quarantine period plus genomic sequencing of test samples enabled NZ to track how the virus moved. 86 passengers total.

AT LEAST 4 onward in flight transmissions occurred proved through genomic sequencing, tracked to Switzerland where the original infection arose. Image
EVEN if you do PCR testing within 48 hours of flight (let alone less precise antigen tests) it is hard to keep infected people off flights. They don’t know they have the virus, despite best efforts.

Symptomatic 71 hours after the flight.

We have to be realistic about risk. Image
Read 7 tweets
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺 Profile picture
21 Nov
Very information packed thread from @rupert_pearse on the status quo in hospitals approaching Winter.

Essential reading.

I suspect we will be looking at a slower paced more Mexican Wave than the Spring sharp peaks and troughs. So as things slow in the NW they are rising in SW
The reference to 15000 in hospital. In fact was 1644 on Wednesday, the last complete day and looks likely to be similar now.

That is just about 3k off the peak of Spring surge when it was under 20k.
Sorry 16,440!
Read 6 tweets

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