Coming up on @realmoney on Monday

We Might Be Closer to Debt Armageddon Than Many Think

* The global mountain of debt will serve as a governor on economic and profit growth
* The debt load and overhang will also weigh on the equity markets
* Increasingly it is taking ever
more debt to deliver a unit of economic production
* The world's economies are now hostage to easy money - and the ransom money can no longer be paid
* We are Japan now and the continued technological advances will contribute to a deflationary cycle that will exacerbate the

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Dougie Kass

Dougie Kass Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DougKass

23 Nov
Nov 23, 2020 | 01:15 PM EST DOUG KASS
I Would No Longer Chase Value
* Given the dominant absolute and relative performance of late

The pivot from growth to value has been underscored by the price action over the last month, last week, and today.

There is now
little doubt of the pivot - an idea which was met by a lot of criticism a few months ago.

Indeed, some of the loudest critics are now buyers of value and sellers of growth - which was as predictable as the sun setting tonight in a market dominated by reactionary price chasers.
I wouldn't be surprised for the pivot to continue for a while longer but to slow down into late December and into the new year.

I would no longer chase value.

I plan to add to my Alphabet ($GOOGL) and Amazon ($AMZN) holdings on any weakness. @jimcramer @tomkeene @business
Read 4 tweets
23 Nov

Nov 23, 2020 | 07:45 AM EST DOUG KASS
Trade of the Week (Long VXX) - Risks Are Being Underpriced
* (VXX) was trading at $18.28 in pre-market trading - I am buying

* Always consider outlier events (especially in a period of rising uncertainty)

* The case for a
heightened regime of volatility

Volatility, aided by central bankers' suppression of interest rates, remains low.

But, what if:

* The virus mutates.

* There are unexpected manufacturing, distribution and storage problems with delivering a Covid-19 virus.

* With a delay
and without a timely vaccine, the spread of Covid-19 intensifies.

* As Covid spreads over the next month, there is an increase of state lockdowns, business and school closings, "stay at home orders", and curfews are announced around the country.

* Trump pulls out all stops in
Read 13 tweets
23 Nov
Nov 23, 2020 | 07:15 AM EST DOUG KASS
The Undoing
Like the HBO series The Undoing (with only one episode left), we are moving to conclusive vaccination news that hopefully will end the spread of Covid-19.
And like The Undoing's characters (Jonathan, Grace or even
Henry Fraser, Sylvia Steinetz, Franklin Reinardt or Fernando Alves - all of whom could have murdered Elena) we don't yet know which vaccination will gain broad adoption. But, with only one episode left next Sunday night, and with the successful results from the three vaccines,
resolution will come shortly.

Overnight news that Oxford AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine is 70% effective on average, data shows - CNN has pushed stock futures higher - after being slightly lower on Sunday evening, S&P stock futures were +22 handles at 6:30 am.
Read 5 tweets
20 Nov
By tweeting silly and ugly conspiracy theories, you are making a fool of yourself, undermining our Democracy and probably most important to you) losing relevancy. Everyone knows you are in a preproduction mode for Trump TV but even your most devoted base will whittle away
with your absurd allegations. @realdonadltrump You came up short and ran the dumbest campaign in American politics (instead of talking about jobs you talked about arresting opponents). You are now attacking fellow Republicans - consistent with your egomaniacal Trump TV strategy.
Ernst, Sasse and Romney have started to kindly ask you to stop subverting our Democracy. More will follow because they dont want you to take the Republican party over the cliff. The longer this goes on the harder it will be for the Republican party to recover.
Read 4 tweets
19 Nov
Nov 19, 2020 | 01:35 PM EST DOUG KASS
Where There Appears to Be a Near Total Unanimity of Opinion
* Investors are bullish on housing stocks. (Not one naysayer I am short homebuilders.)

* Zoom ($ZM) has become a "verb." (I did well on this short and plan to
reestablish it on strength.)

* Stocks look higher in 2021 and for the next decade. (I am net short, see my opener.)

* The economy will look like a hockey stick in 2021. (I have argued against this occurrence.)

* S&P profits will hit a new all-time high in 2021. (I doubt it.)
* Apple ($AAPL) will continue its dominance of the high-end smart phone market. (I just reshorted AAPL yesterday on the basis of possible weakening in iPhone unit sales.)

* Energy stocks are unattractive at almost any price. (Doing research on this sector now.)
Read 4 tweets
17 Nov
Here is what I wrote (and why I reduced holdings in WalMart yesterday) on @realmoney
Nov 16, 2020 | 02:46 PM EST DOUG KASS
'For What It's Worth' - There Are Battle Lines Being Drawn at Walmart
Technically this is the first time since the last EPS release that Walmart's
($WMT) daily RSI is overbought.
As mentioned I have reduced my WMT long investment today:
Nov 16, 2020 ' 12:25 PM EST DOUG KASS
Reducing Walmart Ahead of Earnings
For three weeks I have been buying Walmart (WMT) on every dip.
However, reflecting a less attractive reward to
risk I am now selling down my Walmart from very large-sized to medium-sized - ahead of the company's EPS report tomorrow.
I placed WMT on my "Best Ideas List' only three weeks ago at $137/share. The shares have hit a 52 week high this morning and are trading at almost $153/share.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!