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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

17 Nov

@realmoney

Coming up on @realmoney
"Group Stink is Forming a Convoy!"

* Stop trying to make fetch happen!
* The investment mosaic is so much more complex than some pretend it is
* Reading headlines, like the vaccine news yesterday, is "first level thinking"
* Revelations occur when the

market tide goes out, as it did in February- March and when the tide goes in, recently
* Simple answers to a complicated market patchwork should not be satisfactory and acceptable anymore
* Nor should we be responsive to the self confident of view in a world of rising

uncertainties
* Increasingly, price is no longer "truth" (consider the disproportionate role and the massive intervention of the Fed as well as the dominance of Passive Investing)
* Avoid skating the surface, dig deeper and stay away from "Group Stink"
* "Price has a way of

Read 4 tweets

Dougie Kass

@DougKass

13 Nov

You just have to say WTF when you watch the Republicans calling Hilary Clinton and Democrats "sore losers" for not accepting the 2016 election the evening of election results. Actually, Hilary Clinton conceded to Trump the day after the election.

Here are the responses four years ago
Today most Republicans, by not accepting the election results, are undermining the system and playing games with national security.
Look at what leading Republicans said four years ago...
cnn.com/2020/11/11/pol…

@realdonaldtrump

Instead of working for a peaceful transition of power @realdonaldtrump et al are acting like fools as they complain unsubstantiated voter fraud. Rather Trump is preventing the President Elect from getting national security briefings - as he begins pre-production of

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

12 Nov

@realmoney

@realmoney
Nov 12, 2020 | 07:45 AM EST DOUG KASS
Give Me a One-Handed Investment Manager
* Sticking with my medium-sized net long exposure, and in stocks that I view as providing much more value than the overall market
* Monday may have been a "Classic Buying Climax and Top"

- but tops are processes, they wear out shorts and build up complacency
* While I continue to lack conviction regarding the near term market prospects this will not likely be a condition that lasts too long!
* By my strict calculus, the S&P is approximately 15% overvalued -

@jimcramer

providing little "margin of safety"

"Give me a one-handed Economist. All my economists say 'on hand...', then 'but on the other..."
- President Harry Truman

Enjoy the day! @jimcramer @tomkeene @business @ferrotv @lizclaman @carlquintanilla @michaelsantoli @riskreversal

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

11 Nov

To Josh Brown - Totally and respectfully disagree.
To begin with, banks have extraordinary low/zero cost deposit bases (trillion dollar gain y/o/y) that will increase in value dramatically as interest rates inevitably rise. The largest banks, like $JPM,

have spent many billions of dollars to advance their technological advantage. They are benefitting from market share gains from non US (esp. European banks) who are the "walking dead." Despite record provisioning and zero interest rates, the large banks will increase

@WilfredFrost

their tangible net worth this year over 2019. Banks have large excess capital positions, historically high liquidity - in the fullness of time they will be able to buyback stock (accretively). Many more reasons - just touched the iceberg. @WilfredFrost @SaraEisen

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

10 Nov

@realmoney

@realmoney
My Six Month Tactical Approach to the Markets Remains The Same

On October 22nd I outlined, "Some Investment Themes to Consider Over the Next Few Months."

Let's revisit the column:

As you map out your strategy for year-end and for 2021, here are some themes to

consider:

* Short Fixed Income: Bonds are among the most risky and least efficiently priced asset classes extant. The 10 year note yield is about to break to the upside (of its 200 day moving average) - the 30 year yield already has. A large, Democratic-led February stimulus

package could be a catalyst for the 10 year US note to climb over 1% in the near term. (I would note that TLT peaked at $172 in early August and is now trading at $155)

* Short Homebuilders: The sector is negatively influenced by the rate of change in bond yields. With mortgage

Read 9 tweets

Dougie Kass

@DougKass

10 Nov

@realmoney

Coming up on @realmoney

The Thunder in South Florida Yesterday Was Not the Bad Weather - It Was The Sound of the Market's Pivot From Growth To Value
* Yesterday may have represented a classic "sell on the good news"
* Monday was also an example why unemotional

trading/investing is so important
* Some stocks and sectors had a great year yesterday
* While many were cheering about the vaccine news, I was waiting to sell (with red tickets in hand)
* On Monday I moved from large net long to small net short - it was the biggest daily

@jimcramer

swing in my aggregate net exposure in years
* Given the market's pivot, it may be time to consider a Berkshire Hathaway long @jimcramer @tomkeene @SquawkCNBC @cnbcfastmoney @andrewrsorkin @beckyquick @SquawkCNBC @cnbcfastmoney @riskreversal @ScottWapnerCNBC

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