1. NO!!!

This race was lost in the same way ALL the down-ballot races that lacked VERY high college educ &/or diversity rates (AZ + CO are neg partisanship realigners- I always told you those were locks, but ME was about Indies ballot splitting) & they did there but DIDN'T in NC
2. and BC the wrong damn campaign strategy was run in BOTH ME & NC, they both came up short. What should have happened? A nationalized messaging strategy that tied Collins/Tillis to Trump-like an albatross & made the decision to vote for Collins/Trump tied to supporting Trump.
3. As I tried in vain to impress upon these two campaigns- the @DCCC (via @DNC @DNCWarRoom) is just plain WRONG about its electioneering approach. In 2018, the party underperformed their potential wave size by not understanding their coalitional realignments well enough
4. college educ white voters are dealigning from the right side of the spectrum and realigning on the left side. But its imp to understand this is largely driven by generational replacement, so when we look at these massive gains in the 'burbs, again its due to Millennials (now
5. 40!) and Zoomers plus the diversification of the 'burbs as middle-class non-whites left gentrifying cities and high-income whites moved back into gentrifying cities. Though some analysts, like Trump, are frozen in time w massively white 'burbs, most of the burbs are richly
6. diverse. The ex-burbs are predominately white (and ex-bubs exist precisely bc the 'burbs are diverse). They were making their way leftward before Trump came along, bc the GOP was already moving towards anti-intellectualism, populism, nativism (which is how Trump came to be).
7. So, full circle, What killed Cunningham was a campaign that was not focused on turnout of D coalition voters- ensuring that massive turnout could have overwhelmed the GOP. Instead, we really see a 3rd time's charm of the Dem's NC-9 flops. I'm sure when I get my hands on that
8. voter file, we'll see that underperformance on turnout of lower propensity Ds killed him. This DIDN'T HAPPEN in Biden's race in the prez. And think about that. In that contest- those races, PA, MI, WI, the state p[arty's there went rogue and paid for their own door canvassing
9. canvassing program and that's what saved those states. We've learned a ton from these surge voters. The congressional underperformance relative to the presidential outcome is largely driven by the decision to suspend permanently the door knocking programs and told candidates
10. they were not allowed to run field. As of Labor Day, no formal field programs for either Biden or the Dem congressional races was in place- prompting me to raise it as an issue during filming of my show in TX (my awesome TX friends had to calm me down! Right @JTiloveTX?!
11. The state leg candidates were also prohibited from using party funds for field, so few if any likely used any field. I will be collecting data on this, but it is my suspicion that when we need to look at why do we see such a sharp decline, its bc no field!! Meanwhile the GOP
12. ran as normal campaigns do, compounding the issue & just like that- you get knocked out of the reapportionment & redistricting cycle, even though you had a good chance of picking up perhaps 4 state houses, bc you didn't run a field program. To say its frustrating is a massive
13. understatement. And its compounded by subpar messaging, which didn't nationalize these races, didn't tie these Rs to Trump to increase interest in them to low-interest voters & increase their salience which is what the GOP does when they tie the D to Pelosi, or more recently,
14. to The Squad, so that R voters are less likely to leave races blank in states that lack straight-ticket voting & are more likely to vote someone out like Collins, who could only win if Biden voters voted Collins. That the DSCC didnt make that campaign a referendum on
15. Collins and her failure to do anything to keep Trump in check is utter incompetence. And I'll leave you with this- the same people want to come drive the strategy for the GA Senate run-offs. Oh, hell no!

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More from @RachelBitecofer

24 Nov
1. THIS. The great sigh of relief people have about a return to normalcy, I get it, I do! And obviously, once the power of the presidency is removed from Trump a MASSIVE amount of normality will be returned to us- and this is not to be under appreciated. But the body politic of
2. Of this country is very sick, WAS sick, had to be sick, to produce a Republican Party nominee as corrupt & malevolent as Trump was- let alone turn him into an elected president even with the system fluke. And keep in mind, there was no repudiation as we hoped. For all the +
3. signs, polls, interactions, forecasts, there was still massive support for this man who is objectively a serial liar, as committed to breaking the country as he is to golf. Even now, the vast majority of Reps, electeds and voters, seem willing to entertain illegal methods
Read 6 tweets
23 Nov
I like @JoeNBC a lot & bc of that, I'm going to challenge him on the bubble-think about Trump/Trumpism going away. If nothing changes (GOP elites continue to toe the line)- the # of Q'Anon-types running & winning GOP noms in '22 will be triple the # of the '20 cycle & in senate
1. EVERYTHING depends on @senatemajldr. If he meets Biden's DRAMATIC overtures for cooperation (I mean, Biden is throwing the entire KITCHEN at the dude on this) & just runs the senate in a normal fashion, seizing on the momentum from these state/local Rs who refused to play ball
2. with the election fraud narrative. And this development down in GA w Loeffler might give him the motivation to do so bc now the crazy caucus has decided that Loeffler is part of the conspiracy (its convenient, they wanted Collins, so this presents an opp in their eyes. It does
Read 5 tweets
23 Nov
1. I've always been stopped from looking at Truman bc of the bombs. Its always been highly disputed that the bombs were needed to force the Japanese to surrender & what is indisputable is that the U.S. worked very, very hard to shield the American public from the truth of what it
2. had just done, bc as it came to realize what it had done, it was horrifying. Far worse than they had even suspected/expected it to be. Press couldn't access the area, so they had to rely on gov't statements until months after. Then, when the reality of what happened began to
3. to take shape, the effort to paint the operations as necessary, not optional, began in earnest. This frame is prevelant in American textbooks. Keep in mind, people clutch those frames tightly as it allows them to sleep at night. Similar to how Rs and R members of Congress are
Read 8 tweets
22 Nov
1. I assume McConnell et al have given up on being challenged, let alone exposed by the Ds, for the stuff he's done in the Senate.

It's the only explanation for the brazenness of his actions, his aggressive douchebaggery. I know I handicap Ds for political stuff- he must too.
2. We watch the same movie. Liberals, the media, Ds, all love the narrative that Rs are unwitting victims, caught up in this shit show with no choice but to toe the line or become Trump's next victim. It's a comforting narrative- which is why its by far the prevailing one.
3. Its comforting bc if congressional Rs are just hapless victims, caught up in this terrible 4-year show, that means that when the show ends, and thank the good lord we now know it's going to have an end on Jan. 20th, at high noon, when a ceremony will deliver the oath of office
Read 15 tweets
21 Nov
1. Watching this rally footage from progressive Ds, who are rightly asking/pushing for Biden to stay committed to the issues/platform he ran on. The ideologically liberal part of the Dem base grew disaffected w @BarackObama when he failed to deliver on his promises. And the
2. crucial mistake that mainstream Democrats make is the assumption that rank-and-file Ds and liberals (bc often, the most active elements of the party's grassroots orgs are people who ID as Indies (left-leaning!) who are far more liberal than your average Dem. This is 1 of the
3. ways that Indies are most misunderstood (other than how few of them are actually "persuadable" or "swing" voters- about 12% of the overall electorate) the most misunderstood aspect of Indies is they are all moderates. That moderation makes one Indie. Often, people dealign from
Read 43 tweets
21 Nov
1. I totally get the rationale behind the trust-building exercises for @JoeBiden proposed by @FrankFigliuzzi1- but as he goes on to acknowledge, any such effort has to be accompanied w a defanging of the right-wing media ecosystem despite few tools that can survive constitutional
2. challenge- and we will likely see the heart of that 6-3 majority defend it as zealously as they've defended the 22nd Amendment- using logical fallacies & other disingenuous techniques to stave off the most modest of reforms. That said, I think progress can be made on the
3. Trump 40% of the electorate. Looking forward to having the capability to put some ideas I have to the test here soon.

These are times for innovative thinking- but the most imp thing is to start w a clear-eyed picture of the extent of the issue- which frankly, I don't think
Read 4 tweets

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