CRITICAL—a negative coronavirus test is **NOT** a ticket to freely socialize without precautions—many are dangerously misguided that it is. It does not negate quarantining, masking & distancing. Here is why 🧵. #COVID19…
2) There is a virus buildup time — called incubation time—until one usually shows symptoms & viral load high enough to the reliably detected. Usually incubation is 5-6 days, but can be 1-14 days or longer. But if you test too early before viral load builds up, you’ll test neg.
3) This does not mean testing is bad—if anything we need more frequent testing. But you can test negative 4 days straight and then positive on day 5. That’s what happened to WH staff K-McEnany and S-Miller—4 negatives before 5th positive. Most people don’t have that luxury.
4) But we could have frequent texting if more of the new generation rapid antigen tests were available. See thread—this super good test is only available and approved in the EU, but somehow not by FDA yet.
5) “The point is to use these tests frequently so people are likely to know their status early, before they transmit to others. It is frequency and speed to get results that should take center stage in public health screening program to stop outbreaks”…
6) But back to original article—one test isn’t perfect because it relies on partly timing of the test in catching a sufficient viral load of #SARSCoV2 before tests turn positive. Thus, for purposes of visiting relatives for holidays, it’s risky to rely on a single test alone.
7) some say a negative test means you’re not infectious yet. That maybe true most of the time, but experts say that’s not a reliable indicator of infectiousness since tests can have false neg too. And you’ll likely visit people days after test & doubt many have daily tests.
8) That’s why we still need masks. And ventilation—especially VENTILATION is key. Both ventilation and masks needed to reduce risk indoors. But most buildings not ventilated well enough.

9) And not to sound like broken record, but masks do work (though thicker double cloth, & premium masks like surgical, KN95 & KF94 better). Mask & airborne science compilation video again.

To share yourself—hold down on video & “Tweet video”—and add tag.
10) And here is a sobering graph—even if you are infected (top panel), you still have a pretty decent chance of testing negative. Especially if prior to day 6. Even on day 6-10, you still have ~1 in 4 chance of negative test result even if you have virus!…
11) these infographics are good. Whether Casey, Kate, or Karen... it can happen all the time. This is what made the virus so damn hard to control in first place.
12) Also please remember our front line healthcare workers. So many have died of #COVID19 already.

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More from @DrEricDing

24 Nov
📍BAD UPDATE—14 morgues—El Paso has to expand another 5 mobile morgues & plan to build a new refrigerated warehouse w/ **3000 square feet of refrigeration** to handle the surging of deceased bodies that need medical examination, amid the #COVID19 surge. 🧵… Image
2) “I don’t know what else we could do. I’m really focusing on a moral appeal to our community,” El Paso County Judge Ricardo Samaniego said.

“As soon as we get one solution, it’s not sufficient,” Judge Samaniego said.
3) “The deadly impact of COVID-19 on El Paso reached an all-time high on Monday, with more than 250 bodies now being held at the county morgue, part of over 480 total deaths under investigation for the coronavirus.”
Read 8 tweets
24 Nov
My take—I personally think the Oxford AstraZeneza #COVID19 vaccine at 90% efficacy (with its half-then-full dose regimen) simple refrigeration vaccine that costs $2.5-4/dose is superior. Cheaper + much easier to ship ➡️ means save more lives worldwide.
2) For the record, we need to stop quoting the 70% efficacy number. It’s a mix of regimen 1&2, which is not possible in the real world. You only take either 1 or 2, not both. Thus it’s either 90% or 62%. Many new outlets made this error, which I myself at first read. 90% folks!
3) Eventually, I think all 3 vaccines might be in the 90% ballpark for efficacy once more data comes out. Also Oxford vaccine reported also asymptomatic infections. While Pfizer did not—only symptomatic. Because asymptomatic can also spread it, I think that is key.
Read 4 tweets
23 Nov
UTTERLY SOBERING—cases rising so fast that we will likely see 3000 deaths a day by end of year. That is one 9/11 ✈️✈️✈️✈️ death toll *per day*!

➡️ Christmas 2020 🎄might be cancelled if this keeps up.

(Analysis by my FAS Team). #COVID19 Image
2) We can add more beds but we can’t just add more doctors and nurses. Especially if they keep falling ill or dying.

N Dakota is now asking infected doctors to keep working.

Thousands of doctors and nurses not so lucky.
3) Horrendous thing is that many places like the Dakotas have even given up on contact tracing.
Read 5 tweets
23 Nov
“I guarantee you...”

Worst words ever spoken. And Cruz has spoken a lot of bad takes. #COVID19
I hope these famous words will be forever etched on Cruz’s tombstone someday. #COVID19 ImageImageImageImage
Let’s remember all the HCWs who have died and continue to fall ill from #COVID19. It’s not an election hoax to them.
Read 4 tweets
23 Nov
DEVASTATING—A contact tracer says North Dakota almost given up tracing: “unless pregnant, we don’t gather any history. Unless their job is health care, or work/attend K-12 schools, we don’t notify their employers”. 🤦🏻‍♂️

👇 Horrendous story #COVID19.… Image
2) “This is what an emergency looks like in North Dakota: Every day seems to break a record for new infections. Even if hospitals have beds, they don’t have enough staff; the governor recently proposed allowing HC workers who test positive to continue working in #COVID19 units.”
3) please think of all the healthcare workers risking their lives too. So many have died. Beg you, please.
Read 4 tweets
23 Nov
BREAKING—Oxford/Astrazeneca vaccine is 70% effective overall. But one of its dosing regimens of low-then-high yields 90% effectiveness.

Oxford #COVID19 vaccine cheaper than the Pfizer & Moderna vaccines, and does *not* does not require freezing transport.…
2) When volunteers were given two "high" doses the protection was 62%, but this rose to 90% when people were given a "low" dose followed by a high one. Not clear why yet.

The 90% effectiveness data was "intriguing" and would mean "we would have a lot more doses to distribute."
3) There were also lower levels of asymptomatic infection in the low followed by high dose group which "means we might be able to halt the virus in its tracks," Prof Pollard said.

In the UK there are 4 million doses ready to go, with another 96 million to be delivered.
Read 9 tweets

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