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23 Nov, 5 tweets, 1 min read
Hard to judge rumours like this which seem ostensibly unlikely. Acknowledgment that there won't be a deal? Desperation of both sides for something? Or just pure wishful thinking?

Probably best focus on the substance. Do EU and UK red lines allow for a deal or not?
Useful also to remember if we're hearing rumours and briefings about a UK-EU deal then we aren't in that much of a negotiating tunnel.
I suspect a lot of people are thinking right now (me included) - is there a game changer for UK-EU talks? Something to ease the political decision-making problems. Very difficult, and I haven't seen anything. Some thinking aloud make become rumour though...
Anyway, might now repeat this tweet every hour.

There 🤝 Are 🤝 No 🤝 Major 🤝 Technical 🤝 Problems 🤝 To 🤝 A 🤝 UK 🤝 EU 🤝 Deal.

There 🤞 Are 🤞 Political 🤞 Problems.
Positive stories of an impending UK-EU deal are likely because both sides agree that a deal is technically quite easy.

Negative stories of no UK-EU deal are likely because both sides agree the other has to move and that this could be difficult.

Hope that helps.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
23 Nov
There are mixed signals from the UK side about the possibility of a deal this week. But for it to happen someone is going to have to defend the compromises required against pressures like this. So far, no Minister will do that.
Just to recall, Boris Johnson's main intervention to get a deal would have to be a call with himself to agree that. Once done, the deal with the EU is more or less there, today, tomorrow or whenever. telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/…
To be clear there are no significant technical obstacles to a UK-EU deal. With or without review clauses the EU will have less access to fish, though enough for UK criticism. Similarly the UK will have to sign up to level playing field terms, though less than some in EU want.
Read 9 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
22 Nov
Brexit. More evidence than in the current Conservative Party to argue for an EU deal is not something anyone concerned about their career will do.
I suspect not many of my followers are readers of the Daily Express but this should be noted. There is precisely zero chance that an EU deal can satisfy this criterion. So, the PM to take on the Centre for Brexit Policy? Likelihood? express.co.uk/news/uk/136294…
Nobody is presumably briefing those 'red wall' MPs that no-deal Brexit means the almost certain further decline of UK manufacturing including most notably the car industry. That no developed country has no significant trade deal with a neighbour.
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
20 Nov
Unless the reason for that optimism is an indication directly from the PM that he intends to make concessions to get a deal it is no more than wishful thinking. Important we understand the code of these things.
Sorry to be a bore but it isn't just the UK EU deal. To get the Japan deal the UK seems to have had to give up some access to agriculture quotas in return for future promises. It looks like a Canada deal will also need a UK concession. All normal.
Two things have changed in UK EU talks since June. General agreement on most issues has turned to text, and the Internal Market Bill has been added to the list of fundamental problems, along with fish, level playing field, governance. 95% was always uncontroversial.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
20 Nov
I suspect it is four. Level Playing Field, governance / disputes, fish, and Northern Ireland Internal Market Bill, though latter is being handled in different discussions. Basically not much changed in six months.
Never enjoyed the doublespeak of trade negotiations. Negotiators can agree smallprint. That isn't momentum. Politicians making difficult decisions is key. "if there is political will" says they still aren't, yet.
So just to emphasise. "Momentum" in trade negotiations is quite like "ambition". Nice sounding words that don't mean what they seem. Momentum means talks have not broken down, like ambition means the usual text.

It seems EU-UK talks have made no noticeable progress this week.
Read 11 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
19 Nov
I guess unintentional bullying is like breaking the law only in a limited and specific way or having special friends and family government procurement channels. All fine as long as done by the right sort of people i.e. government ministers.
Incidentally well done to all of the Conservative MPs who have this evening said bullying is absolutely fine as long as it is done by someone you personally like.

Continuing in the long-standing UK political tradition of being supportive of bullies in your own party.
I see there is an argument that you kind of need a bit of bullying in a difficult department.

As if bullying isn't actually going to make a dysfunctional workplace even worse. An entirely specious argument.
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
19 Nov
No progress to report as it seems both EU and UK prefer a staring contest. Dereliction of duty of both EU and UK leaving business hanging in this way.
On one level, c'est la vie.

On another, who the hell thought it was a good idea to still be intensively negotiating a major trade relationship only 6 weeks before current free flowing arrangements expire at the height of a pandemic?

I mean, y'know, if only someone had thought of the idea that we might need more time for negotiations because of Covid
Read 12 tweets

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