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23 Nov, 5 tweets, 3 min read
BIG news for 2020s redistricting: New York Dems gained the power to potentially control redistricting (if they can overcome internal divisions, which isn't a given).

But GOP nationally will still be able to draw roughly 40-50% of seats & Dems just 10-20% dailykos.com/story/2020/11/…
After 2010, Dem Gov. Cuomo signed NY GOP's Senate gerrymander to keep GOP in power so that they could block progressive bills without him making unpopular vetoes, & several turncoat Dems backed GOP control. Unclear if all Dems will back Dem gerrymander now dailykos.com/stories/2018/7…
I tend to think that New York Dems *will* be able to pass a congressional gerrymander to seek a partisan advantage (really just mitigating the GOP's national advantage), & their internal divisions complicate passing legislative gerrymanders more than at the federal level
Nationally, the 2020 elections were a disaster for the coming decade of redistricting, which we explained state-by-state at the link in the quoted tweet below.

The Supreme Court's 6-3 GOP majority could make GOP gerrymandering much worse within states too dailykos.com/story/2020/11/…
SCOTUS threatens to remove the ability of state courts, voters via ballot initiatives, & potentially even governors to block state legislatures from gerrymandering Congress.

If that happens, commissions in AZ, CA, & MI get struck down & GOP could gerrymander majority of Congress

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More from @PoliticsWolf

Stephen Wolf Profile picture
19 Nov
Michigan's state legislature has operated under GOP minority rule for practically the entire decade since their current gerrymanders went into effect, with Dems winning more votes but no majorities.

Trump keeps trying to get them to steal the election. Every R must condemn this
There's a good chance Michigan Dems won more votes than GOP for state House in 2020 but no majority once again. I'll update this table once the results are fully certified, & you can find the underlying data here taken from the secretary of state's website docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
After a decade of GOP minority rule, Michigan will have a new independent redistricting commission drawing the districts after 2020. But the Supreme Court's hardline right-wing majority threatens to strike down such commissions that block GOP gerrymanders dailykos.com/story/2020/11/…
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
18 Nov
This 1st map shows how GOP will be able to draw 4-5 times more congressional districts than Dems after 2020, ensuring the map is biased toward GOP via gerrymandering similarly to after 2010: dailykos.com/story/2020/11/…

2nd map shows partisan control over state-level election admin ImageImage
Almost no other democracy operates like America does by using partisan elections to decide who runs elections & draws the districts for electing lawmakers. It creates a massive conflict of interest, spawning efforts of gerrymandering, voter suppression, & outright election theft
Compelling idea for having the federal govt take over much of election administration under an independent agency insulated from partisan pressures like the Federal Reserve, etc. National admin of national elections is the norm among democracies, & GOP has corrupted many states
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
17 Nov
Huge news for election in Alaska: The AP has called Measure 2 as passing by 1%.

AK will replace traditional party primaries with a system where all candidates regardless of party run on a single primary ballot & the top-four finishers advance to a ranked-choice general election
This has major implications for Alaska politics. While the GOP has nominal legislative majorities in both chambers, the last 4 years have seen Dems & moderate Rs in the state House govern as a bipartisan coalition, & this reform may make such coalitions easier to form after 2020
With Alaska passing the top-four primary/ranked-choice voting ballot measure, every major 2020 democracy measure has now seen a resolution.

We tracked the status of two dozen such measures nationally here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Background: dailykos.com/stories/2020/1…
Read 6 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
12 Nov
I firmly believe the Electoral College has become a 1-way ratchet against Dems, not because it inherently favors GOP, but because GOP won’t accept a popular vote win & EC loss. Trump urged “revolution” when he thought it happened in 2012.

It’s a time bomb abcnews.go.com/Politics/donal…
If Arizona, Georgia, & Texas keep trending blue while the Rust Belt outside Illinois trends red, the Electoral College could swing back to favoring Dems like it did from 2004-2012, making this disastrous outcome more likely.

Abolishing Electoral College is good for both parties
We're approaching point where GOP won't accept any Dem win but the biggest landslide (Trump is already trying to), putting our 2-party system in a very dangerous position. Our institutions are breaking down at multiple levels. We could have a contested election crisis this decade
Read 6 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
11 Nov
We are caught in the two-party doom loop where Dems can either escalate or continue to abide by norms after initial GOP violations, but either response will just see the GOP keep escalating because they’re either retaliating or getting away with violations. We have to break free
Ending the two-party system's zero-sum game would likely help tremendously with this, & we could do it by adopting proportional representation along with ending winner-take-all elections & gerrymandering. Protecting voting rights is another key element
See @leedrutman's book on how we're stuck in the two-party doom loop & how institutional reforms could help us break free. But the million dollar question of course is how to overcome the collective action problem of getting there, & I have no easy answers global.oup.com/academic/produ…
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
10 Nov
[Thread] Bad news for fair elections in Illinois. GOP could now win a state Supreme Court majority in 2022 & use it to impose unfair redistricting maps under guise of "nonpartisanship." GOP could then win legislative majorities even if Dems win more votes by roughly 10% overall!
Illinois' Supreme Court has a 4-3 Dem majority, but federal courts have never held that "one person, one vote" applies to judicial redistricting, & the districts are badly malapportioned after 5 decades. Dem-leaning District 2 has 2x as many people as GOP-leaning Districts 4 & 5
Now that a Dem incumbent lost retention election in District 3, it'll have a partisan 2022 election in a seat that Trump won in 2016. GOP could flip it to gain control of court if Dems don't win partisan election for District 2, where a GOP incumbent will face voters for 1st time
Read 8 tweets

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