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12 Nov, 6 tweets, 3 min read
I firmly believe the Electoral College has become a 1-way ratchet against Dems, not because it inherently favors GOP, but because GOP won’t accept a popular vote win & EC loss. Trump urged “revolution” when he thought it happened in 2012.

It’s a time bomb abcnews.go.com/Politics/donal…
If Arizona, Georgia, & Texas keep trending blue while the Rust Belt outside Illinois trends red, the Electoral College could swing back to favoring Dems like it did from 2004-2012, making this disastrous outcome more likely.

Abolishing Electoral College is good for both parties
We're approaching point where GOP won't accept any Dem win but the biggest landslide (Trump is already trying to), putting our 2-party system in a very dangerous position. Our institutions are breaking down at multiple levels. We could have a contested election crisis this decade
If AZ, GA, & TX keep trending blue while the Rust Belt trends red, the Electoral College could favor Dems if TX flips, with Biden winning here 281-257. This may not happen for years, but reapportionment makes it likelier by moving electoral votes from the North to South/Southwest Image
GOP could gerrymander Nebraska's 2nd District to make it safely red, though. GOP failed to win a 2/3 supermajority in 2020 needed to overcome a Dem filibuster, but they could end their filibuster rule with a simple majority #NE02 dailykos.com/story/2020/11/…
To be clear, this is not a prediction, especially regarding ME, MN, & NH, etc. It's just to illustrate that if Dems are winning AZ, GA, & TX, the GOP can't just expect to max out in the Northeast/Midwest & still win the Electoral College without something else major changing

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More from @PoliticsWolf

Stephen Wolf Profile picture
11 Nov
We are caught in the two-party doom loop where Dems can either escalate or continue to abide by norms after initial GOP violations, but either response will just see the GOP keep escalating because they’re either retaliating or getting away with violations. We have to break free
Ending the two-party system's zero-sum game would likely help tremendously with this, & we could do it by adopting proportional representation along with ending winner-take-all elections & gerrymandering. Protecting voting rights is another key element
See @leedrutman's book on how we're stuck in the two-party doom loop & how institutional reforms could help us break free. But the million dollar question of course is how to overcome the collective action problem of getting there, & I have no easy answers global.oup.com/academic/produ…
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
10 Nov
[Thread] Bad news for fair elections in Illinois. GOP could now win a state Supreme Court majority in 2022 & use it to impose unfair redistricting maps under guise of "nonpartisanship." GOP could then win legislative majorities even if Dems win more votes by roughly 10% overall!
Illinois' Supreme Court has a 4-3 Dem majority, but federal courts have never held that "one person, one vote" applies to judicial redistricting, & the districts are badly malapportioned after 5 decades. Dem-leaning District 2 has 2x as many people as GOP-leaning Districts 4 & 5
Now that a Dem incumbent lost retention election in District 3, it'll have a partisan 2022 election in a seat that Trump won in 2016. GOP could flip it to gain control of court if Dems don't win partisan election for District 2, where a GOP incumbent will face voters for 1st time
Read 8 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
9 Nov
How undemocratic the Senate is after 2020:

Dems will represent ≥53% of Americans

GOP will hold 52-48 majority if they win 2 GA runoffs

Dems will represent ≥40 MILLION more people but no Senate majority (each American counts 2x)

GOP hasn't represented more people since 1998
And of course 4 million American citizens, who would count as 8 million people in this Senate representation exercise (since every person gets 2 senators), have no Senate representation whatsoever despite both D.C. in 2016 & Puerto Rico last Tuesday having voted for statehood
Entrenchment of GOP minority rule is THE story of 2020's elections. Dems would fully control federal govt after 2020 without it.

Senate GOP has won minority rule in every election from 2014-2020, with no end in sight unless Dems pull off upsets to win Georgia runoffs on Jan. 5
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
6 Nov
No exaggeration to say that Dems winning the Jan. 5 Georgia Senate runoffs is the single most important unknown shaping the next decade of U.S. politics. GOP will dominate 2020s redistricting, run SCOTUS, & block all Biden judges. A Dem Senate could curb all of those outcomes
Fundraising isn't the only thing that will help Dems win Georgia's Jan. 5 Senate runoffs. Voters who haven't yet registered may do so here, including those who are currently 17-years-old but turn 18 by Jan. 5
GOP is poised to dominate redistricting, but a Dem Senate could fight back by passing a law to ban congressional gerrymandering nationally. That would likely also require killing the filibuster & reforming SCOTUS. Possible but hard dailykos.com/stories/2020/1…
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
5 Nov
NEW: The 2020 elections were a disaster for a decade of redistricting, further securing GOP minority rule.

GOP is tentatively on track to draw 4-5 times as many congressional districts as Dems, while SCOTUS threatens to remove checks on GOP legislatures dailykos.com/story/2020/11/… ImageImage
After 2010, the GOP drew 5 times as many congressional districts as Dems, a majority vs. Dems' 10%.

2020 is poised to be similar with the GOP drawing 4-5 out of 10 districts nationally. GOP gerrymandering WITHIN states may also become even more extreme than 2010 thanks to SCOTUS Image
If Dems don't pull off upsets in the expected Jan. 5 runoffs for both GA Senate seats, GOP will control Senate, blocking House Dems from banning congressional gerrymandering nationally with #HR1 & taking the threat of SCOTUS expansion off the table.

SCOTUS may soon be let loose
Read 11 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
5 Nov
Puerto Rico appears to have voted 52-48 for statehood with a large majority of votes already counted.

Unlike in past referenda, there does not appear to have been any significant boycott like 2017 or undervote compared to the governor's race like in 2012 nytimes.com/live/2020/11/0…
D.C. voted heavily for statehood in 2016. If Dems somehow pull off upsets to win both expected Georgia Senate runoffs in Jan. 5, admitting D.C. & Puerto Rico as states is key for protecting our democracy & majority rule.

The Senate has a huge bias against Dems & people of color.
4 million American citizens are disenfranchised. We owe them statehood after a majority in both has expressed that desire in referenda.

Beyond that, the Senate is U.S. democracy's #1 threat. GOP last represented more Americans than Dems in 1998! Yet they've held power since 2014
Read 4 tweets

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