Terrifying amount of hospitalizations and death, and it is going to get much worse in 3 to 4 weeks.
You can see from this chart, we have gotten much better in keeping people alive, conditional on them getting sick enough to go to the hospital: great! But, all of that collapses if/when the hospitals get overwhelmed. And, that is starting in many places around the country.
People keep saying we are running out of "ICU beds", but what they mean is we are running out of Doctors/Nurses/Staff & Supplies/Treatment. If you, or a loved one, gets sick over Thanksgiving, that is the cold reality of what they will face if rushed to hospital a few week later.
We cannot redistribute people & supplies around US, like we did in the first two waves, because pandemic everywhere at once. And, we have no functioning government anyway to facilitate that. If people do indoor Thanksgiving, as feared: it is going to be humanitarian disaster.
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Unless Republicans are held accountable for their numerous crimes against US over the last 4 years, they will do it all again as soon as they regain power.
Agree that Trump Family should first held accountable to crimes they committed *before* holding office: money laundering & tax fraud. That is cleaner politically, and will expose everyone to their corruption.
Jared & Ivanka should also be held to account for whatever deals they cut with Saudi Arabia for financing, in exchange for green lighting murder of US journalist, and other example of selling US security for cash. The security risk of them being compromised cannot be duplicated.
That black line is hospitalizations and it basically pointing straight up because the number of Americans in the hospital right now for COVID-19 is exploding.
Our average *daily* deal toll of 1,160 is now higher than any point in the 2nd wave.
Our hospitalizations are 30% higher than any point in the first two waves.
This numbers are terrifying.
A week or two after Thanksgiving there will be no free doctors/nurses/medical staff, not enough treatment, and too few beds: if you or a loved one finds themselves rushing to a hospital you may not be able to get care.
There are few people more directly responsible for the Republican Party's completely denial of reality as a strategy for doing horrible things to US than @FrankLuntz. He literally laid out this strategy in a 2002 memo on climate change, but it carries through to COVID-19.
Luntz has walked back his work on climate change per se, but it is his strategy that drives their pro-COVID-19 polices, kicking people off of healthcare during the pandemic, no aid relief for those suffering health & economic fall-out: is all about muddling the science & experts.
Luntz wants US to believe that Trump is an aberration, not the core of the Republican Party, but 52 of 53 Republican senators voted to give him power to sell our assets & security for cash, to abuse his office w/o oversight: he is the natural end to Luntz work twisting reality.
In my academic research on information production, distribution, consumption we break-up outcomes into different stakeholders: elites (politicians, journalists, rich/powerful people) & general population AND formation of idea & radicalization & general diffusion (short thread)...
Too often when we "worry" about what news is being produced or consumed, we do not spend enough time making clear what we are actually worried about. Been thinking a lot these days about echo chambers among right-wing elites.
49 of 53 sitting Republican senators back Don Trump's attempt to hold onto power after his massive election loss: we are being told it is a cold calculation or performance art. But, we do not know what type of information these elite are getting: how uninformed they are.
Here is what I will be looking for as the data comes into tonight (1) Has Biden clearly won "swing" states he is up by a lot: MN, WI, MI, NE-2 are key (2) Has Biden won NV (tighter polls, but DEM regularly overperforms): if he wins these states, he has 260 electoral votes.
(3) If that goes Biden's way he just needs one of 7 states: PA, AZ, NC, FL, GA, OH, TX. Every state I did not name is either gravy for Biden or he is fucked if it is in play. Here is the little spreadsheet I made to keep track of EV if/when I get flustered. Probability is crude.
For senate there are 3 seats in play that I will be watching closely to make sure Democrats get to 50: ME, MI, NC. That is assuming Democrats will also take AZ, CO. After that it is a race to get 51 or 52 seats: they really need 52 seats to make sure to pass key legislation.
I largely refrained from predictions in 2020 for numerous reasons. Horse-race coverage (1) gamifies & diminishes importance of this election (2) may displace coverage of more import (3) may discourage participation. I did jump into disagree w/ everyone on trajectory of election:
I was convinced by my polling, fundamentals of economy & COVID-19, relative strengths of the candidates that Biden would enlarge the map and maintain his polling lead up to Election Day: it is pretty clear at this point that my position was valid ...
Now the question is what will the polling error be (i.e., will Biden or Trump do better than the final polling averages), while almost everyone is fretting over how much Trump beats the average, I believe that Biden is actually more likely to beat the averages.