Another day, another sloppy, bad-faith piece from the @Independent's 'chief business commentator' @JimMooreJourno on public sector pay independent.co.uk/independentpre…
When he first wrote about this, he failed to address the disparity between private sector and public sector pay at all, or the disparity in terms of the impact of the pandemic.
If you read what he says this time, the implication is that the public sector have suffered disproportionately. There's no other charitable interpretation of this section.
But the same IFS report he is quoting makes absolutely clear that public sector pay has 'fallen' from a position of significant superiority to private to rough parity for the same type of work.
This is without considering pensions, which as the IFS has said, and everyone with even the vaguest interest in this area knows, bumps up the differential hugely - eg from 3% to 20% in 2007
As for the fact that private pay and job security fell massively post 2008, and are doing so again, as per these graphs? Moore airily claims that 'the private sector is expected to bounce back next year'.
Again, this is just not true. The OBR's central scenario for the pandemic shows GDP and employment not returning to 2020 levels until 2023. It's a few months out of date, but literally no one is predicting a V-shape at this point
You can get a flavour of Moore's politics from the fact that the only person he got a quote from in his original report was Frances O'Grady, head of the TUC. Although he called her France O'Grade, just like he called me 'Colville' throughout #premium
Anyway, I'm very happy to discuss/debate @CPSThinkTank's ideas with people who actually use facts - eg @julianHjessop, who's cited in the second piece. But this kind of bad-faith bullshit pisses me off.

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More from @rcolvile

22 Nov
My column today is on the dire state of the public finances, and why Rishi really does need to take Boris’s credit card away. Please do read the full thing, but a quick thread for context. (1/?) thetimes.co.uk/edition/commen…
As I say in the column, the cost of the pandemic is gargantuan. Borrowing this year will be £350bn-£400bn - that’s 3x NHS England budget. The contracts for the moonshot testing programme alone are £43bn - 1/4 of income tax collected via PAYE.
And lockdown two has come with full-fat furlough till end of March (original cost: £14bn a month, though it'll be less this time), plus another massive hit to GDP/tax revenue.
Read 15 tweets
4 Aug
Have been thinking about the US election, and I think there's a real parallel in terms of expectation with what happened over here in 2019. (1/?)
By all the laws of electoral history, the Tories in 2019 were on track to win - more popular leader, more trusted on economy, polls looking good. But so many of those involved had been so traumatised by 2017 that it was really hard to believe.
Sure things looked good. But this was a new age. All the old certainties had been upended. There was probably something weird happening on social media that no one was seeing. Or a turnout surge among the young. Your rules? We threw them in a bin. Our rules now.
Read 5 tweets
5 Jul
A year ago, I lost my wife Andrea. I've written for @thesundaytimes on the awful year that followed (1/3) thetimes.co.uk/edition/news-r…
What got us through was the support of family, friends and colleagues. But we were also profoundly moved by the many, many people who donated to support research in Andrea's memory - enough to support a full three-year grant to study the disease that killed her
The reason I've written this piece is because, as a result of Covid, medical research charities are facing an awful time. Their income and donations have been hammered, and the bailout money has gone to frontline NHS or small local charities.
Read 4 tweets
26 Jun
Kudos to @BBCr4today for asking me to discuss one of the more interesting aspects of the Desmond saga - why planning consents for a London borough are ending up on a Secretary of State's desk in the first place (1/?)
The answer ties in to all the reports about the govt's planned planning reforms. It's that the British planning system is (compared to other countries) both unpredictable and adversarial.
Elsewhere, the arguments are generally about what you can build, not exactly where. In Britain, everything is about getting permission for specific plots of land, but there's a lot more room for manoeuvre on what exactly you build
Read 9 tweets
20 May
On the care home issue, it's worth remembering the sheer panic in the early stages of the pandemic about the NHS being overwhelmed, and how urgently they were trying to clear space to make room for a Lombardy-style tsunami of cases. (1/2)
Even at that stage doctors were worried about patients being decanted into care homes from hospitals (and vice versa if there were outbreaks in the homes) - but everyone in NHS and govt was frantic, ragged and making all kinds of snap decisions under immense pressure (2/2)
Obviously no one was saying 'hey, care homes don't matter, let's dump patients there'. But there seems to have been a calculation made - wrongly, it turns out - that they could isolate any infected patients while freeing up space in hospitals for the tidal wave...
Read 4 tweets
15 May
A lot of coverage today of Boris's Damascene conversion on obesity (as revealed in this excellent @JGForsyth column thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-…). And at the risk of having my free-market membership card taken away, he's absolutely right.
Over the last year (for reasons explained in my pinned tweet) I've done a load of research on liver disease - fundraising, talking to doctors and policy experts. They told me there is a lot of stuff we could or should be doing...
...but if we want to save the most lives, then minimum alcohol pricing and fat taxes would be by far the most powerful interventions. (See eg this Lancet commission report, which got together the country's top liver experts thelancet.com/journals/lance…)
Read 8 tweets

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