Thread by @jengolbeck

I am naturally an optimist! But I am primarily a scientist and I study how things spread through social networks. I am profoundly worried. I'll let epidemiologists can give you a good scientific warning, but I want to share how I am preparing for what's coming 1/

There were ~171,000 new cases / day this week. That alone is astonishing. And in 2 days, a lot of people are going to gather in big groups, maskless, indoors. This will be catastrophic. 2/

People will get sick from Thanksgiving, but they will be spreading this for a couple weeks before the full impact emerges. I said I am an optimist. I am not a doomsayer. I would not be surprised to see us hit 500,000 cases / day. Say a month from now. December 24… 3/

If things are not bad enough to discourage family Christmas celebrations, we'll be pushing that even higher. It makes me physically anxious just to think about what's coming. And my heart aches that it's literally as we're about to roll out a vaccine! 4/

If we just waited a few more months to truly give thanks for the gift science has brought us with miraculous speed this year, so much suffering and death could be avoided!

But I know I will not convince people. I am not the first one saying this. So here's what *I* am doing 5/

It's still warm where I am. We have one outdoor restaurant that's operating at <50% capacity with good mask and sanitizer protocols that we feel safe going to. We're going there for our last dinner out tonight. 6/

I'm doing a massive grocery shop, stocking up on non-perishables. I will have to go to the store in the coming months, but I want those to be 5 minute trips to grab milk or produce, not even 15 minute trips to stock up. 7/

That's not because I think grocery stores will close, but rather that being in them is about to become profoundly more dangerous. 8/

We have already been extremely cautious. Other than grocery shopping, I don't do anything indoors. We don't socialize even outdoors. I wear my mask everywhere. But I am terrified of what's coming. 9/

I had run-of-the-mill pneumonia last year and was miserable for months. Even "mild" cases of covid are much worse. The impacts last a very long time even for healthy people. 10/

My passion in life is doing big, epic things. I ran every road in the Florida Keys as my summer quarantine project. I run 100 miles (all in a row without stopping!) on Labor Day weekend. I'm training for an Ironman. I want to be around and healthy to do that and more 11/

In the grand scheme of our lives, there is so little left to endure until we are vaccinated & can get back to it. I cry every day at the things I am missing-the parades, the parties, the hugs. I feel all that pain everyone else does. We just have to make it a few more months. 12/

My strategy for making it until vaccination day is that today, November 24, is prep day for a long serious lockdown. I recommend you do the same. Stock up. Make plans for things being a lot worse. It's going to get VERY BAD in December.

And pray that I'm wrong /end