Thread by @fbermingham

Xi Jinping's surprise msg on CPTPP has sent a ripple of intrigue around the Pacific Rim and put more pressure on Joe Biden re the future of the trade deal. Long read from me with @kinlinglo

scmp.com/economy/china-…

Chinese ex officials and scholars say Xi's statement effectively makes it official policy, but there is no way China makes the terms of CPTPP on SOEs, competition, digital, data without serious reform

Is that sort of reform likely? Well per @scmpeconomy, Xi plans to make them "stronger, better and bigger", so, eh, probably not...

amp.scmp.com/economy/china-…

Officials at other member countries then say this is, as with Li Keqiang in May, China "stirring the pot a bit" in the US absence. One official said that it showed "a step up in ambition". But a handful I spoke to all hoped it would stir the US to return to CPTPP.

. @hofunghung at Johns Hopkins compared it to Xi at Davos, a "publicity stunt to shape the world’s perception of China with words that are not followed up by action”. Don't forget China right now hitting Australia, another CPTPP member, hard on trade

US trade veterans not surprised by China turning to CPTPP following RCEP signing

To position itself as a 21 century leader, China needs to "test ride the shiny Tesla", having already "given a big bear hug to the old jalopy,” said Claire Reade, ex USTR China enforcer

But it is still not expected to return to the deal any time soon. Given domestic mess, friction in Dems on trade, any deal tough, let alone "trying to thread the political needle of walking back into TPP,” @edwardalden - a deal that divided Dems in 2016 and now...

Ultimately, unlikely either superpower joins soon, but @mahbubani_k says over 10 yrs China more likely. His advice to US? Don't rush back, listen.

“They must come and learn about the new East Asia that has emerged, and not base policies on old assumptions of the past.”