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Daniel Marans

25 Nov, 8 tweets, 4 min read

@ryangrim

In an article I co-wrote with @ryangrim and @ArthurDelaneyHP, Sperling praised Grand Bargain opponents on the left for shifting the debate on Social Security to one about retirement income, rather than fiscal insolvency. huffpost.com/entry/barack-o…

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1331353957713711105

https://twitter.com/itsAmira_H/status/1330608195119804416

Reed has not, to my knowledge, expressed any similar level of appreciation for the left's role in that debate -- or criticism of the austerity craze of 2009-13.

In fact, he reiterated the basic "everything should be on the table" mantra in 2018:

https://twitter.com/itsAmira_H/status/1330608195119804416

These are pretty fundamental policy and philosophical differences between the left and the Democratic establishment.

@taragolshan

As @taragolshan outlined, Bruce Reed was a key architect of the 1996 welfare reform law that anti-poverty advocates now generally agree greatly increased the immiseration of the most vulnerable people in the country.

Reed spoke glowingly about it in 2016: huffpost.com/entry/coronavi…

@CenterOnBudget

In a way, what the Bowles-Simpson commission that Reed ran sought to do was turn Social Security into programs that more closely resembled means-tested cash welfare by breaking the link between earnings and benefits.

Via @CenterOnBudget: cbpp.org/research/bowle…

Down the line, that of course would make Social Security more vulnerable to exactly the kind of additional "reforms" -- ie, cuts -- that Reed succeeded in exacting on traditional welfare ...

... It is widely accepted that Social Security and Medicare enjoy higher popularity because of their universality and link to earnings.

It's why even Donald Trump understood so well the need to vocally oppose cuts -- and benefited from it politically.

After an election in which not only non-college whites, but Latinos, moved away from Democrats, this might be a political consideration for the party to make.

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More from @danielmarans

Daniel Marans

@danielmarans

27 Nov

New: I did an overview of Gov. Newsom's choices to replace Kamala Harris in the Senate. Pressure groups are divided into three camps: Advocates for a Black woman; advocates for a Latino; and advocates for someone LGBTQ. Plus, ideological gaps within each: huffpost.com/entry/gavin-ne…

I hoped to shed more light on what frontrunner California Secretary of State Alex Padilla's policy agenda and interests are.

I struggled to come up with details about that, which is its own statement about the politics here. "Inoffensive liberal" seems like the best description.

There is a small, but significant faction pulling for former state Senate President Kevin de Léon, arguing that his run against Sen. Dianne Feinstein showed a prescient "chutzpah."

That includes the Imperial County Democratic Central Committee.

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Daniel Marans

@danielmarans

25 Nov

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331483636613459969

An interesting comparison for context here is that Clinton and Obama outperformed Ellison here in 2016 and 2008, albeit by smaller margins.

The Biden-Omar gap was 16 points.

The Clinton-Ellison gap was about 5 in 2016. Obama-Ellison gap was about 2 in 2008.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331483636613459969

Interestingly enough, Ellison actually outperformed Obama in 2012, getting 74.7% to Obama's 73.5%

That appears to be because unlike in 2008 and 2016, there was no third-party candidate on the ballot between Ellison and a Republican.

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Daniel Marans

@danielmarans

19 Nov

New: I looked at the ways that Republicans' "defund the police" attacks hurt Democrats and tried to treat the issue of whether it matters and who is to blame for that exactly with some nuance: huffpost.com/entry/republic…

@Kantar

Key figures on the "defund the police" attacks, via @Kantar:

Trump and allied groups used the attack in ads that aired 77,647 times; congressional Rs, allies used it 103,000 times.

Biden did not directly rebut it on TV; congressional Ds did in ads that aired 22,000 times.

I also looked at how many top left-wing pols and organizations embraced the slogan and the room it gave Rs to use guilt by association.

For example, GOP used NextGen's stance to blast Sara Gideon.

A political faux pas by stakeholders, or just testament to GOP ruthlessness?

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Daniel Marans

@danielmarans

20 Oct

I just spoke to Michael Scott, a chef, and Lee Kuczynski, a food service worker.

They voted Obama, Trump and now Biden.

Lee and Michael, who has heard your joke about Steve Carell’s character in The Office, want lower health care bills. They also “back the blue,” but don’t think Biden is anti-police.

I was talking to voters outside the Luzerne County building, where the line for early voting is about an hour (most of the queue is inside). People also have questions/requests. But you can drop off a pre-completed absentee ballot in the blue box.

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Daniel Marans

@danielmarans

20 Oct

Had a good time chatting with Derek Cataldi, a politically active member of Carpenters Local 167, in Bensalem today.

He’s voting for Biden but it’s a source of tension with his Trump-supporting mother.

Cataldi supported Bernie but because the union endorsed Republican Brian Fitzpatrick in PA-1, Cataldi would vote for him if he lived there (he lives just outside the district). Please excuse me calling the GOP congressman Fitzgerald by accident.

Fitzpatrick is one of just 5 House Republicans to vote for the PRO Act which would outlaw right to work laws and increase fines for labor law violations. clerk.house.gov/Votes/202050

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Daniel Marans

@danielmarans

19 Oct

I spoke to Cathy Brienza, who drove down from Ridgewood, NJ, to talk to voters about voting Democrat in Bethelehem, Pa. She heads the liberal group JOLT (join organize lead teach).