New: I did an overview of Gov. Newsom's choices to replace Kamala Harris in the Senate. Pressure groups are divided into three camps: Advocates for a Black woman; advocates for a Latino; and advocates for someone LGBTQ. Plus, ideological gaps within each: huffpost.com/entry/gavin-ne…
I hoped to shed more light on what frontrunner California Secretary of State Alex Padilla's policy agenda and interests are.

I struggled to come up with details about that, which is its own statement about the politics here. "Inoffensive liberal" seems like the best description.
There is a small, but significant faction pulling for former state Senate President Kevin de Léon, arguing that his run against Sen. Dianne Feinstein showed a prescient "chutzpah."

That includes the Imperial County Democratic Central Committee.
The camps that have gotten the least traction are those arguing for either a special election or a placeholder senator, so no one has an incumbent advantage in 2022.

All of that ups the pressure for a more open process if and when Feinstein leaves mid-term.

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More from @danielmarans

25 Nov
An interesting comparison for context here is that Clinton and Obama outperformed Ellison here in 2016 and 2008, albeit by smaller margins.

The Biden-Omar gap was 16 points.

The Clinton-Ellison gap was about 5 in 2016. Obama-Ellison gap was about 2 in 2008. ImageImageImageImage
Interestingly enough, Ellison actually outperformed Obama in 2012, getting 74.7% to Obama's 73.5% ImageImage
That appears to be because unlike in 2008 and 2016, there was no third-party candidate on the ballot between Ellison and a Republican.
Read 5 tweets
25 Nov
In an article I co-wrote with @ryangrim and @ArthurDelaneyHP, Sperling praised Grand Bargain opponents on the left for shifting the debate on Social Security to one about retirement income, rather than fiscal insolvency. huffpost.com/entry/barack-o… Image
Reed has not, to my knowledge, expressed any similar level of appreciation for the left's role in that debate -- or criticism of the austerity craze of 2009-13.

In fact, he reiterated the basic "everything should be on the table" mantra in 2018:
These are pretty fundamental policy and philosophical differences between the left and the Democratic establishment.
Read 8 tweets
19 Nov
New: I looked at the ways that Republicans' "defund the police" attacks hurt Democrats and tried to treat the issue of whether it matters and who is to blame for that exactly with some nuance: huffpost.com/entry/republic…
Key figures on the "defund the police" attacks, via @Kantar:

Trump and allied groups used the attack in ads that aired 77,647 times; congressional Rs, allies used it 103,000 times.

Biden did not directly rebut it on TV; congressional Ds did in ads that aired 22,000 times. ImageImage
I also looked at how many top left-wing pols and organizations embraced the slogan and the room it gave Rs to use guilt by association.

For example, GOP used NextGen's stance to blast Sara Gideon.

A political faux pas by stakeholders, or just testament to GOP ruthlessness? ImageImage
Read 21 tweets
20 Oct
I just spoke to Michael Scott, a chef, and Lee Kuczynski, a food service worker.

They voted Obama, Trump and now Biden.
Lee and Michael, who has heard your joke about Steve Carell’s character in The Office, want lower health care bills. They also “back the blue,” but don’t think Biden is anti-police.
I was talking to voters outside the Luzerne County building, where the line for early voting is about an hour (most of the queue is inside). People also have questions/requests. But you can drop off a pre-completed absentee ballot in the blue box.
Read 6 tweets
20 Oct
Had a good time chatting with Derek Cataldi, a politically active member of Carpenters Local 167, in Bensalem today.

He’s voting for Biden but it’s a source of tension with his Trump-supporting mother.
Cataldi supported Bernie but because the union endorsed Republican Brian Fitzpatrick in PA-1, Cataldi would vote for him if he lived there (he lives just outside the district). Please excuse me calling the GOP congressman Fitzgerald by accident.
Fitzpatrick is one of just 5 House Republicans to vote for the PRO Act which would outlaw right to work laws and increase fines for labor law violations. clerk.house.gov/Votes/202050
Read 4 tweets
19 Oct
I spoke to Cathy Brienza, who drove down from Ridgewood, NJ, to talk to voters about voting Democrat in Bethelehem, Pa. She heads the liberal group JOLT (join organize lead teach).
Amos Johnson, a home health aide now on disability, was parking his car in the Bethlehem C Town parking lot. He proudly displays his Biden bear.
Amos said that as someone who is Black and gay, he doesn’t appreciate that Trump “hasn’t been very respectful to a lot of our country.”
Read 5 tweets

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