Thread by @BaluSreevidya

I can only share my speculations as I have not spoken to RK nor to anyone close to him.

Here is what I think:

1. Yes, he has mass appeal but it will depend on the way he launches himself. If he doesn't announce himself as CM face, then the influence will not be huge.

https://twitter.com/Rishhabh007/status/1331868462008832001

People are already tired of his indecision. Many ask "how can he give a clean rule in 5 years if he couldn't decide on coming to politics in 20 years"

Those that are not close to him may not know his acumen, understanding and intelligence. But one can't blame them for that!

I think this shift in thinking of common people about his entry is triggered by two factors:

1. EPS's excellent administration - he has shown his mettle through the pandemic. No anti-incumbency, no anti-Modi wave because he implemented all of centre's schemes for people

I have seen people blaming govt for any issue from tap water to cyclone. But today, they seem to be aware that the govt is doing all they can. There is an air of acceptance.

2. People now know about RK's health condition. They seem to prioritise his health to politics.

2. Yes, he is seriously interested, but his entry looks bleak - reasons:

~ His health condition as agreed by him
~ Fear of Covid esp after SPB's passing.

If he can't do huge rallies/ make a huge splash, he won't enter. If he can't do it the Rajni style, he won't do it at all.

Plus, the way @AmitShah has categorically endorsed AIADMK - BJP alliance, I deduce RK will not make a third front.

3. No, I don't think he will join BJP. It will amount to killing his support base. He speaks about 'Aatchi mattram' which means breaking the two party system.

He has been against both DK parties although he once endorsed DMK against JJ. That endorsement got DMK to win then.

If he forms a party, then followers will have to come from

~ New voters/ youngsters
~ Swing voters hitherto voting AIADMK out of force
~ Disillusioned DMK voters

If he joined BJP, then these people may not wholly support him.

4. BJP's plans about RK. Again, my speculations,

Scenario 1:

~ If he forms party, then BJP will still be with AIADMK, but NDA will not campaign against RK

~ If his seats are needed to support EPS as CM,

..then stitch up post-poll alliance with him. This is where @sgurumurthy Ji is crucial. He is a friend of both RK and BJP

Scenario 2:

~ Rajni does not form a party, but announces support to any one alliance - this is what I believe Gurumurthy Ji and Amit Shah spoke at length

So, getting RK to announce his support to the alliance will be the game plan here.

Huge task as he will have to explain to his followers that EPS will give an 'atmeeka arasial' - spiritually inclined government.

I am watching this space.

Scenario 3:

No political entry, no endorsements. Even then, BJP may get cryptic support through statements etc. RK may suggest he is backing PM @narendramodi and may not mention local admin at all.

I see chances of Scenario 2 and 3 more than 1.