Given the notion that it was AP who checked RaGa's style of politics from blossoming fully, some things that might change:
1. Politics
RaGa, as everyone knows is weaning more towards socialism. Maybe influence of his close coterie, but
clearly evident from his hasty visit to JNU in support of the Tukde Tukde gang, his love for reviving MGNREGA, and his style of agitation - farmers, students and dalits - typical marxist style.
His politics will show more of radical/revolutionary style than the GOP style
After all, CIA did manage to bring Mossadegh down through a mere student revolution, and RaGa must be thinking Modi is no big deal.
In terms of election politics, more agitations will be seen prior to elections of states/ LS than alliances and booth level work.
2. Media management
AP did a meticulous job in ensuring SoGa was NEVER mentioned in the Lutyen media.
It's the urban legend that no editorial around INC/ Gandhi family passes some of the media houses without a hotline chat with AP. I don't believe Lutyens would conspire
to launch and relaunch the Gandhi siblings relentlessly without being handsomely rewarded. AP was believed to have supported SoGa in getting this end.
AP was the Hindi news tracker. Doesn't look like RaGa has an equivalent in his coterie. This will be a disadvantage for INC.
Social media will be increasingly relied on by the new INC.
Although shocked by @narendramodi 's SM support, INC sharpened its claws with uncle Pitroda at the helms for bringing social engineering attempts with Cambridge Analytica.
In the coming years more social engineering and 'manufacturing dissent' can be expected.
3. Managing allies and alliances
AP was a genius in getting difficult allies to fall in line. AP was not a mere executor of strategy, but was a crafty architect of allies, a troubleshooter.
Biggest recent example is the realignment of Sachin Pilot. It was AP signature all over the orchestration.
In terms of allies, his roping in of SP to vote for the Indo-US Nuclear deal in 2008.
He was behind the 'MGB' in Bihar.
4. Chaperon
~ Has been the big force behind SoGa's political life
~ Has been the 'pusher' of RaGa (remember Baru's mention of how AP slipped a note into MMS's hand on continuation of MGNREGA)
~ Has been magnanimous in crediting PriGa of SP alliance in UP.
Was the force behind the untiring image building of all Gandhis including Rajiv.
AP relied mostly on 'insiders' whereas RaGa relies on his 'outsider' coterie. This will be a huge change to INC as I can say without hesitation that INC's life was on AP ventilator.
That RaGa has made Hardik Patel working President would have hurt the cool strategist that AP was.
If RaGa continues to project HP in Gujarat, then in the absence of AP, BJP will have another comfortable win.
AP was effective in garnering funds for INC, this will now be issue.
Overall, RaGa's free hand approach of 'manufacturing dissent' is dead against Ahmed Patel's simple old world approach to politics of 'manufacturing assent'
India will reject the unthrottled RaGa politics, and INC is on its way to doom.
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As we all know, Dubakka victory is a surprise encouragement. But is that why the heavyweights have descended there?
Here are my views:
~ BJP has exposed the nexus between KCR and AIMIM
~ With a distant second representation in the GHMC, AIMIM has already created a strong politico-religious finance system to fund its activities that can go well beyond Hyderabad/Bhagya Nagar.
~ It has enough funding to expand AIMIM into becoming the new Congress.
~ What it does now is consolidating the hitherto Congress bloc vote.
~ AIMIM and Congress have got Rohingyas into Hyderabad in the exact way Pakistani muslims were brought to Kashmir and muslims from Jordan/ Morocco to Gaza. We know what that means.
Kolahala Srinivas keeps raising this question of why @AmitShah did not endorse NDA alliance publicly despite EPS and OPS announcing it in the govt function.
He seems to speculate that @BJP4TamilNadu is waiting for Rajnikant to enter politics.
I disagree.
1/4
I had mentioned in my tweet prior to Amit Shah's visit that
he will NOT:
~ meet any actor
~ declare alliances/ allies
I had said that these were @JPNadda 's job and Shah will not undermine his Party President's role by openly declaring an alliance.
People should stop seeing Shah as BJP president. Nadda is well capable of managing this portfolio.
I had written a few months ago in Malayalam about how TN politics will be a bipolar one.
AIADMK is needed at the centre for the passing of difficult bills.
A few days ago, there was severe weather warning in the pacific region about huge water swell in the ocean.
Later there was warning of #NivarCyclone in the NE Indian Ocean, and Nivar swept across as predicted.
Over the last couple of days, over 120 whales and dolphins stranded on some New Zealand islands dead. Many had wounds as if from a blast.
Who did the underwater explosion if any, in deep ocean, what was the test?
In 2004, my husband and I were at the Marina beach in Madras on the eve of Tsunami. We saw a red Sumo circling around the beach and a group of people surveying the area.
We felt suspicious and alerted the Police.
Who were they? What were they doing hours before the Tsunami?
I can only share my speculations as I have not spoken to RK nor to anyone close to him.
Here is what I think:
1. Yes, he has mass appeal but it will depend on the way he launches himself. If he doesn't announce himself as CM face, then the influence will not be huge.
People are already tired of his indecision. Many ask "how can he give a clean rule in 5 years if he couldn't decide on coming to politics in 20 years"
Those that are not close to him may not know his acumen, understanding and intelligence. But one can't blame them for that!
I think this shift in thinking of common people about his entry is triggered by two factors:
1. EPS's excellent administration - he has shown his mettle through the pandemic. No anti-incumbency, no anti-Modi wave because he implemented all of centre's schemes for people
My take on @AmitShah 's visit of Chennai 21 - 22 November.
Those interested in TN politics may read.
1. Amit Shah looked extremely pleased with the trip overall, evident from the way he got out of the cavalcade and walked.
I saw that rare smile on his face throughout his visit
He is also pleased with EPS's performance in the state - best implementation of central schemes.
Maybe reason for no anti-incumbency in the state, especially after last year's debacle.
Why is it important for Shah to be pleased with AIADMK's warm position towards BJP/ Shah?
It is important because the alliance is a two-way bridge. Shah needs AIADMK at the centre, especially in Rajyasabha more 'involved' to pass some of the heavy weight and controversial bills he has up his sleeve.
He is pleased because AIADMK is willing to partner. In exchange,
BJP's politics in Kerala leaves much to be desired.
The 'faction' that is inactive today seems to place 'positions' above dedication to work.
They had their time. They didn't do anything spectacular in the state. Now it's time for a leader desired by the mass supporters.
1/7
With so much to talk about and react, all that this faction cries since the appointment of @surendran is 'ignoring, sidelining, no position given'
Never heard one productive call on winning the upcoming elections in the state. Never heard one word in support of new leader
I can't speculate his success, but I think @surendranbjp should be given a fair chance.
Bringing him to a razor edge and pushing the local body elections as an acid test is dirty politics. I wouldn't even be surprised if this faction worked against BJP to prove a point.