Thread by @fascinatorfun

🦠🦠 17,555 new cases and processing is up.

There does seem to be a real reduction of cases.

Now below the week leading to the November national restrictions

Still too high.

⚰️⚰️⚰️498 (28 day) deaths

3258 the last 7 days -465 avg daily

Previous 7 days 2847 -406 avg daily

🏥 Admissions seem to be flattening but there is now a significant reporting lag especially from Scotland. Last complete day 21/11/29 with 1434 admitted in one day. Still the equivalent of a large hospital but slowing steadily.

🛌 In hospital 16,341 on Tuesday. Flattening.

There are some encouraging signs that the incoming cases are steadily dropping and the influx of patients to hospital is slowing.

But a week yesterday we will be back into the Tier system and I can see why large parts of the country are still subject to substantial restrictions.

I am frankly nervous about local discipline when we are no longer all in it together and about Christmas

Also, whilst flu has been barely registering so far, if it does rise as it usually does in December and into January hospitals will be struggling to cope at current levels.

Here are @JoePajak ‘s trend charts

There is beneficial change in many areas but not all, and in many from a very high starting point.

It still looks quite fragile to me.

https://twitter.com/joepajak/status/1332011120392101888

For instance some areas that were quite low before the November national restrictions are now seeing higher rates and higher admissions than at the start.

My own SW is still showing quite sharp admissions. SE and EofE and London also higher admissions.

https://twitter.com/admbriggs/status/1332006903942098946

Some further oddities and areas for concern and questioning about the decision making process in deciding which areas should be in Tier 2 and which in Tier 3.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1331951138225188865

Risk assessments should be be multi faceted
Neither number of current cases nor the R rate can be the only guide where hospitalisations are still high and cases in the elderly rising (whilst maybe falling in the younger age groups).

So look for other evidence apart from cases

The first @JoePajak trend chart was for ENGLAND alone.

Here is his U.K. wide trend chart and summary.

https://twitter.com/joepajak/status/1332023055967809538