OK, tweeps. It's Thanksgiving. Otherwise known as Turkey Day So it's time for my annual thread on Turkey...
Turkey remains a hugely problematic NATO and US ally. From domestic oppression at home to illicit finance and support for terrorism and rogue states abroad, this is an ally in name only. And one gets a sense that the tensions with the US may reach a boiling point soon.
Turkey's terrorism problem first popped up on my radar with the 2010 @IHHen flotilla to Gaza. The organization has long been flagged as having ties to terrorism. I noted those ties here: washingtonexaminer.com/weekly-standar…
But that was not all. There were clear signs that Turkey had become patron for Hamas. foreignpolicy.com/2014/08/20/lyi…
The biggest problem from my perspective was that Saleh Arouri, West Bank Qassam Brigades commander, was operating there. He was responsible for the kidnapping/murder of the 3 Israeli teens that sparked the 2014 war with Hamas.
This, inter alia, led to @StateDept issuing a Rewards for Justice on Arouri. state.gov/rewards-for-ju…
But it was not just Hamas. In 2014, this @FDD report flagged a range of other terrorism-related concerns. fdd.org/analysis/2014/…
We also flagged a growing problem: Turkey's tacit and even open support for ISIS. Fighters were streaming in to Turkey to find their way southeast to the Syrian border. fdd.org/analysis/2014/…
Then there is the $20 billion sanctions evasion scheme that landed Turkish officials and Halkbank in hot water. They executed the largest sanctions evasion scheme in modern history on behalf of state sponsor of terror Iran. theatlantic.com/international/…
More recently, Turkey bought and activated the Russian S400 system -- in defiance of NATO and the US. Congress is now fully justified to impose CAATSA sanctions on Turkey now. fdd.org/analysis/2020/…
Other challeges include:
Hostage Diplomacy: fdd.org/analysis/2018/…
Targeting US consulate workers: fdd.org/analysis/2019/…
Support for other rogue states: fdd.org/analysis/2019/…
Stifling free speech at home: fdd.org/analysis/2020/…
I could go on, but I have a Turkey to bake (14.5 lbs). Just remember, on this Turkey Day, that the temperature is rising with this problematic ally. With the incoming Biden administration finally tackle these problems head on? The last 2 administrations have not. Here's hoping.

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More from @JSchanzer

14 Nov
While Iran regime apologists attempt to explain how al-Qaeda’s #2 was just a pawn or under house arrest by the regime in Tehran, it’s worth remembering some fascinating history dating back to the early 1990s in Sudan.
Under the leadership of Hassan Turabi, Sudan played host to Islamist conferences featuring violent actors from across the Middle East: Al-Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah...you name it. The goal of these confabs was to unite all violent Islamists under one banner.
This is where that supposed firewall between Sunni and Shia extremist was eroded. It did not remove it entirely. But it paved the way for Iran and Hezbollah to cooperate with groups like Al-Qaeda and Hamas. Those relationships endured.
Read 5 tweets
14 Nov
The fact that Al-Qaeda enjoys safe haven in Iran has been known to CT analysts for years. It’s been reinforced by US Treasury designations—including during the Obama years. But mention it as part of Iran’s long list of malign activities, and you get branded a “war monger.”
For good analysis on this topic, follow @FDD’s @LongWarJournal @thomasjoscelyn. For falsehoods, keep scrolling through your feed and watch pro-JCPOA mouthpieces dismiss basic facts for political reasons.
Read 4 tweets
30 Sep
(1) Today was a busy day. I’ve not had time to respond to the news about Hezbollah’s missile facilities that Israeli PM Netanyahu exposed today. But here goes...
(2) We at @FDD have been warning about the threat of Hezbollah’s precision guided munitions (PGM) project, sponsored by Iran, for quite some time.
Writing: commentarymagazine.com/articles/jonat…
Speaking: meforum.org/60908/schanzer…
(3) Israel has tried to prevent the missiles from being smuggled to Lebanon by way of Syria, where hundreds of targets have been destroyed in recent years. But it is clear that Hezbollah is now turning its efforts to indigenous production.
Read 9 tweets
21 Aug
Like the Islamic State, without the beheadings.
Just imagine if the US -- or Israel! -- started converting mosques into churches or synagogues. The anger from the Muslim world would be seething. The State Department would be issuing apologies and doing damage control. What is Erdogan's Turkey doing? Gloating and doubling down.
For all the talk of American Islamophobia, it certainly seems to me that Turkey is the one waging a campaign to offend Christians. And the silence from the rest of the Muslim world is deafening.
Read 4 tweets
16 Aug
Arab states want ties with Israel for reasons unconnected to the Palestinians. After a century of conflict, they appear to realize that subordinating their interests to the Palestinian cause was not good for anyone but the Palestinians.
My timeline is filled with analysts bending over backwards to make the Palestinians a central issue in the UAE announcement and future annoucements by other Arab states. It’s bizarre. The under-the-table relationships between Israel and Arab states are driven by self interest.
When we talk about self-interest, that includes: security, cyber, intelligence sharing, technology, trade, etc. Fear of an aggressive Iran looms largest. Israel’s ability to tangle with Tehran does not go unnoticed. But there are other benefits to reap from ties with Israel.
Read 4 tweets
15 Aug
“Can I haz bailout?” asks Lebanon’s President. As if such an agreement with Israel were possible with swaths of the country controlled by an Iran-backed terror group, which until a few days ago was the lynchpin for a coalition.
I don’t discount that Aoun himself might want an agreement. But it’s just not possible now. It’s also hard to believe that this wasn’t a trial balloon to the West, as Lebanon struggles to deal with its $93 billion sinkhole of an economy.
Read 4 tweets

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